2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Watch Lou Dobbs very closely in this clip. You will see why Democrats don't understand GOP fiscal conservatism.

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[Rover]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Too much angst out of my fellow lefties in the media. Calm the F down already. Mittens polling right after the debate when his "bounce" should be in full effect still shows him losing aside from one Pew Research poll, a poll I've heard about nonstop thru the so called liberally biased media. He got extraordinarily good post debate coverage with moved his numbers afterward, but since he's still as popular as small pox he's starting to settle back down.

The best part though in all of this is how excited knuckledraggers have gotten for this race. I can think of one contest in recent memory that didn't ebb and flow post conventions in the last 20 years, and that was 1996. People, this is natural and Mittens is getting the bounce he should have gotten had he staged a successful convention. While I feel Obama gets naive far too often for someone who's been in Washington for almost a decade (not anticipating Republcan obstructionalism, thinking he could have a "conservation" in the 1st debate when debates are never conversations) The Mittwit is going to have to answer for his tax plan and wanting to start yet another war in the Middle East come the next debate.

PS - While Lehrer is a fossil (I think he reffed the Kennedy-Nixon debate) he had no impact on the outcome.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Too much angst out of my fellow lefties in the media. Calm the F down already. Mittens polling right after the debate when his "bounce" should be in full effect still shows him losing aside from one Pew Research poll, a poll I've heard about nonstop thru the so called liberally biased media.

PPP (D) shows Mittens up by 2 this morning. The bounce is real, the question is whether it is sustainable. It *is* true historically that the challenger has gotten a 3-point or so bounce out of the first debate just by appearing on the same stage as the President. Romney exceeded that, partly because he was dead in the water beforehand, and partly because Obama looked so awful.

The problem right now is Obama looks like he has a glass jaw and soft support (which is unconscionable after the long, hard four-year fight against the sort of crap he's had to face). If he comes out guns blazing in the second debate he'll be fine. If he craps the bed again then we have a serious problem.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Onion nails it.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Onion nails it.

"Following the interview, Romney told various reporters that, if elected, he would save the newspaper industry."

 

[sagard]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Watch Lou Dobbs very closely in this clip. You will see why Democrats don't understand GOP fiscal conservatism.

The GOP does not represent fiscal conservatism in any way, shape, or form. They represent a yearning for war, and a pure hatred for Democrats.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

The GOP does not represent fiscal conservatism in any way, shape, or form. They represent a yearning for war, and a pure hatred for Democrats.

Exactly. That's why the mushy middle who supposedly is weary of war and partisanship electing Mitt Romney this year is staggering. But, it will happen.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

The GOP does not represent fiscal conservatism in any way, shape, or form. They represent a yearning for war, and a pure hatred for Democrats.

Hence why there are some fiscal conservatives, such as myself, that are not voting for Romney.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Too much angst out of my fellow lefties in the media. Calm the F down already. Mittens polling right after the debate when his "bounce" should be in full effect still shows him losing aside from one Pew Research poll, a poll I've heard about nonstop thru the so called liberally biased media.

You're right. The only explanation is that a boring race that has already been decided doesn't sell papers or attract viewers, so they're consciously looking for any excuse to spice it up. And the news consumers are only too happy to buy into the idea that the race is now being contested.
My thought is that the only "real" affect all this excitability can have is to boost R turnout to the point where it might help them in some local races they otherwise would have lost. Probably not what NPR was shooting for with all this talk about how Republicans are cool again.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Hence why there are some fiscal conservatives, such as myself, that are not voting for Romney.

The Libertarians get distracted by shiny objects like the Fed, and they're insane in wanting to fully deregulate banking, but they are pretty good on fiscal restraint.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

PPP (D) shows Mittens up by 2 this morning. The bounce is real, the question is whether it is sustainable. It *is* true historically that the challenger has gotten a 3-point or so bounce out of the first debate just by appearing on the same stage as the President. Romney exceeded that, partly because he was dead in the water beforehand, and partly because Obama looked so awful.

The problem right now is Obama looks like he has a glass jaw and soft support (which is unconscionable after the long, hard four-year fight against the sort of crap he's had to face). If he comes out guns blazing in the second debate he'll be fine. If he craps the bed again then we have a serious problem.

Election polls are like college hockey polls. Way too many people getting way too bent out of shape about them (on both sides).

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Election polls are like college hockey polls. Way too many people getting way too bent out of shape about them (on both sides).

Not really. College hockey is decided on the ice by players who are not affected by the polls. But elections are decided by all sorts of social-psychological effects that are in part affected by polls. Polls do not create a narrative but they do help drive it.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Not really. College hockey is decided on the ice by players who are not affected by the polls. But elections are decided by all sorts of social-psychological effects that are in part affected by polls. Polls do not create a narrative but they do help drive it.

Really agree with this post-but would include the word 'close' as I feel polls only can influence elections that are close to begin with. Large percentages of potential voters not only are not influenced by polls-many of them do not even know they exist.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Really agree with this post-but would include the word 'close' as I feel polls only can influence elections that are close to begin with. Large percentages of potential voters not only are not influenced by polls-many of them do not even know they exist.

The best part of all this was the GOP shut up about how "polls are broken" the instant they went their way. Always the party of integrity.

Mittens may in fact be the ideal Republican candidate: they are the post-factual party, and the election is their reality TV show.

 

[sagard]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

The polls are just part of the election entertainment process. They are most likely the most accurate and truthful part of the game.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

The polls are just part of the election entertainment process. They are most likely the most accurate and truthful part of the game.

This is probably true.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Listening to Laura Ingraham for a couple minutes while going out to pick up lunch, and it was of her opinion that Mittens does much better without a teleprompter than he does with one, while Obummer is like the character Ron Burgundy in the film "Anchorman".

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Polls have another function aside from the media's desire for a close race (don't get me wrong, if Romney was leading most of the way and Obama suddenly had a spike in support we'd be seeing the same thing) which is to help push a narrative. I don't think there's necessarily a coordination here, but in the days after the debate and over the past week I've seen GOP related pollsters out in droves showing Romney movement basically everywhere. Far from complaining about this, I think this is smart politics. As the media is lazy and stupid, they're not going to care who took the poll but will dutifully report it. Romney has had his best week so far, although his #'s in the tracking polls are heavy on people responding in the days after the debate so time and the next debate (not the VP one) will tell.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Listening to Laura Ingraham for a couple minutes while going out to pick up lunch, and it was of her opinion that Mittens does much better without a teleprompter than he does with one, while Obummer is like the character Ron Burgundy in the film "Anchorman".

Why does she think he's doing so well when he abandoned virtually every policy position he's taken the last 4 years?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Listening to Laura Ingraham for a couple minutes while going out to pick up lunch

Hope you can keep it down.