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2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I'm always amazed by people who can believe in cause-and-effect (at least statistically) even down to the molecular and even sub-atomic level, but then turn around and swear that an invisible man in the sky is actually running things...

what do you mean, "invisible", haven't you ever seen a rainbow? ;)


and I thought it was an all-nurturing female from deep in the earth that really ran everything, and that Zeus guy you are talking about is just a Johnny-come-lately poseur....
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

um, in other contexts, don't we call that "learning from experience?" ;)

Romney's background is in business and an important part of his formative years were spent at a consulting firm. Guess what, guys, in order for consulting firms to do their job, they first have to have clients. in order to have clients, you need to close a deal; and in order to close a deal, you have to engage in salesmanship. Romney is doing the same thing now; he's trying to close a deal to bring management consultant expertise to bear on the federal government, and so he is adjusting his sales pitch based on feedback from the potential client. The client is telling him what it wants from the consultant and so the prospective consultant is telling the client, sure, we can do that.

It's not dishonest, it's not lying. Now, I can easily understand how people would dislike that, and the term "flip-flop" could well apply. there is a big difference between saying he changes his position and saying he is lying. he can be truthful in what he says about each one of the positions, and for him not to adjust in response to feedback from his potential client would make him ideologically rigid and subject to a whole host of complaints along those lines. Who are we kidding here? Partisans are going to be partisan no matter what.

By adjusting his positions, Romney is trying to give people reasons to vote for him, it at least demonstrates he's listening, no? ;) When I look at the preponderance of all the Democrat advertising, it is really very harsh if not outright dishonest; at least here where I live, the Republican advertising is "only" about 60% negative about the other, 40% positive about themselves.

I'd prefer people just say I don't like him or I don't trust him or I think Obama would do a better job or whatever. There's no reason to go to the level of viciousness and bile that I suspect is about to be unleashed except a twisted sense of entitlement fueled by desperation.


I love how you keep trying to pass yourself off as somehow independent. Hilarious...
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

and I thought it was an all-nurturing female from deep in the earth that really ran everything, and that Zeus guy you are talking about is just a Johnny-come-lately poseur....

Gimme that old tyme religion,
Gimme that old tyme religion,
That old tyme religion,
It's good enough for me.

We will pray to Aphrodite,
She's beautiful but flighty,
In her silken see-thru nightie,
She's good enough for me.

We will pray to Zarathrustra,
Pray just like we used-to,
I'm a Zarathrustra booster,
He's good enough for me.

We will pray just like the Druids,
Drinking strange fermented fluids,
Go dancing naked through the woods,
They're good enough for me.

We will pray to the god Buddha,
Of gods there is none cuter,
Come in silver, brass or pewter,
He's good enough for me.

We will pray with those Egyptians,
Who built pyramids to put their crypts in,
Covered up with strange inscriptions,
They're good enough for me.

We will pray to Ra and Ahmen,
Just like Tutankhamen,
And teach our friends embalming,
They're good enough for me.

Hare Krishna he must be laughin,
To see me dressed in saffron,
With my hair only half-on
He's good enough for me.

I will rise up at early morning,
When my Lord gives me the warning,
That the solar age is dawning,
He's good enough for me.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

That's what I thought, too. Granted, I don't trust unemployment numbers all that much because the definition is very sketchy over what constitutes being "in the work force".
I think there are plenty of reasons to view unemployment numbers in general skeptically. It seems like they should probably not even release the number for the most recent three months since they are constantly revising them over the next few months.

The definitions for U1, ..., U6 actually seem pretty explicit. The preponderance of different measures is confusing, but they all track the same way so as long as we stick with the same one time series analyses should work.

I was mostly laughing because the numbers come from about a zillion economists and are rolled together over weeks of work. I get this image of Obama staying up late Wednesday night with a pencil hurriedly erasing... :D
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I was mostly laughing because the numbers come from about a zillion economists and are rolled together over weeks of work. I get this image of Obama staying up late Wednesday night with a pencil hurriedly erasing... :D

Beethoven does that in his grave. It's called "de-composing". :D
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Beethoven does that in his grave. It's called "de-composing". :D
Good God, 49 years old and there's a Beethoven joke I'd never heard. You give me hope to carry on. Nicely done. :)
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Hey, now. I just hadn't seen it.

That kind of move off one debate suggest a market inefficiency to me. ;)

So if Obama fluffs the second debate (not saying he will because it obviously hasn't happened yet, but it is not without possibility), what's going to be the blame that time? :p
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

So if Obama fluffs the second debate (not saying he will because it obviously hasn't happened yet, but it is not without possibility), what's going to be the blame that time? :p

Sun spots.

BTW, there is a better conspiracy theory out there than the Bureau of Labor Statistics faking the numbers. The new Echo Chamber meme is that liberals are lying about getting jobs to push the numbers higher.

If only we were that organized.
 
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Sun spots.

BTW, there is a better conspiracy theory out there than the Bureau of Labor Statistics faking the numbers. The new Echo Chamber meme is that liberals are lying about getting jobs to push the numbers higher.

If only we were that organized.

I think this is the point where Jack Welch officially "jumped the shark". For the record, I believe the jobs numbers in the months leading up to the 2004 election managed to barely put Bush over the top for net job creation during his term. I don't recall anybody crying conspiracy theories over that...

One more jobs report to go right before election day. If it stays around 100K I'm not sure what the rational is for electing Mittens. Obama can realistically argue he's brought the country back from the brink that he inherited and if you give him 4 more years it'll continue on this path. Why I'm inclined to believe these #'s is because the private sector job creation #'s have been running in the mid 100'000's for awhile now. Govt job reductions are dragging the total down (something Obama would be smart to site in the next debate) but I'm speculating most of those cuts are done.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I didn't hear Obama misrepresenting his positions during the debate. That's all Romney did. He even said during the debate that his medical plan covers pre-existing conditions. Then his campaign after the debate issued a statement saying, no it doesn't.
No, it's just that Obama doesn't get called on it, as he wasn't called on it in the last campaign and hasn't been called on it since being elected. The media's challenge is that they are both trying to paint Romney as an extreme rightist, but then if they paint him as changing positions, that inherently makes him look more middle of the road as he'd be changing to positions that are less rightist. Can't have it both ways, at least logically, though they try.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

No, it's just that Obama doesn't get called on it, as he wasn't called on it in the last campaign and hasn't been called on it since being elected. The media's challenge is that they are both trying to paint Romney as an extreme rightist, but then if they paint him as changing positions, that inherently makes him look more middle of the road as he'd be changing to positions that are less rightist. Can't have it both ways, at least logically, though they try.

Poppycock. All politicians are called out on their flip-flops. Obama's been eviscerated for "Hope and Change", cutting the deficit, the overall jobs numbers. All promises he made that he didn't fulfill.

Romney up until now has been a right wing extremist. He spent the entire debate lying about his positions. I don't see how that changes him. All that proves is that the most important thing to him is being President. Nothing else matters.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

No, it's just that Obama doesn't get called on it, as he wasn't called on it in the last campaign and hasn't been called on it since being elected. The media's challenge is that they are both trying to paint Romney as an extreme rightist, but then if they paint him as changing positions, that inherently makes him look more middle of the road as he'd be changing to positions that are less rightist. Can't have it both ways, at least logically, though they try.

I'm not sure about that... he changed (or at least claims to have changed) positions on many issues where he certinally moved further right.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I did not hear him representing his "positions" either.....

I disagree. He represented his positions. He just didn't spend a lot of time correcting Romney. If he had he probably would have sounded mean, and petty. Which most voters don't like. His biggest problem was he didn't look engaged or lively.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I'm not sure about that... [Obama] changed (or at least claims to have changed) positions on many issues where he certinally moved further right.

well, Guantanomo is still open ....

I find it ironic that they no longer want to capture terrorists to obtain information, because they are too squeamish, yet they have a fun time picking out which terrorists to hit with Predator drones!
 
No, it's just that Obama doesn't get called on it, as he wasn't called on it in the last campaign and hasn't been called on it since being elected. The media's challenge is that they are both trying to paint Romney as an extreme rightist, but then if they paint him as changing positions, that inherently makes him look more middle of the road as he'd be changing to positions that are less rightist. Can't have it both ways, at least logically, though they try.

A couple of odd statements here. Obama has been called repeatedly on 1) promising to change the tone in DC, 2) unemployment rising over 8%, and 3) drone strikes/Afghanistan surge from the far left wingers.

Meanwhile, the media has had nothing to do with the most damaging things that have happened to Romney. 1) the "47%" comment and 2) choosing Ryan and all his Congressional baggage as VP.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I didn't hear Obama misrepresenting his positions during the debate. That's all Romney did. He even said during the debate that his medical plan covers pre-existing conditions. Then his campaign after the debate issued a statement saying, no it doesn't.
Not sure why you didn't. Selective hearing loss?:eek:

Seriously, arguing about which politician lies more is akin to arguing who was the bigger murder, Stalin or Hitler.
 
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