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2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vacante

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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Rover said:
I'm all for questioning the biases of polling firms especially ones with a track record of slanting results. However when even Fox and Rasmussen have Mittens getting croaked in swing states its time to give up the ghost on that story. Both of these outfits have no interest in showing an Obama lead.
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This goes way beyond accusation of skewing, it's rejecting a mathematically-coherent methodology in favor of wishing and fantasy. It's the statistical equivalent of Creationism: "the empirical evidence does not validate my a priori hypothesis, therefore I will substitute a lot of gibberish and my audience who is ignorant of and even frightened by the scientific method will go along with it."

The C, D and F students have decided that because there are more of them* they can just outvote the A students on matters of reality.

(* except at Harvard...)
 
Kepler said:
This goes way beyond accusation of skewing, it's rejecting a mathematically-coherent methodology in favor of wishing and fantasy. It's the statistical equivalent of Creationism: "the empirical evidence does not validate my a priori hypothesis, therefore I will substitute a lot of gibberish and my audience who is ignorant of and even frightened by the scientific method will go along with it."

The C, D and F students have decided that because there are more of them* they can just outvote the A students on matters of reality.

(* except at Harvard...)
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Hey, its all good. Election day will settle who's right on this once and for all. I do recall back in 2006 Karl Rove claimed to have his own polling showing the GOP would only lose 12 seats in the House in Nov thus keeping the majority. It was also said he had an analysis ready to publish about how polling firms were inaccurate. Given that they lost 30 seats that night, I'm guessing that report ended up in the circular filing cabinet.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Rover said:
Hey, its all good. Election day will settle who's right on this once and for all. I do recall back in 2006 Karl Rove claimed to have his own polling showing the GOP would only lose 12 seats in the House in Nov thus keeping the majority. It was also said he had an analysis ready to publish about how polling firms were inaccurate. Given that they lost 30 seats that night, I'm guessing that report ended up in the circular filing cabinet.
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And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.
 
FlagDUDE08 said:
And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.
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Anything's possible Flaggy. What I will say to you is that Mittens needs to go 3 for 3 in these debates. Right now he's in the same position Kerry was in at this time in 2004. Losing. Kerry managed to get some traction after croaking the dimwitted Bush in all three debates. Not enough obviously, but Romney needs a similar game changer.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Rover said:
Anything's possible Flaggy. What I will say to you is that Mittens needs to go 3 for 3 in these debates. Right now he's in the same position Kerry was in at this time in 2004. Losing. Kerry managed to get some traction after croaking the dimwitted Bush in all three debates. Not enough obviously, but Romney needs a similar game changer.
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If I had a nickel for every post you made that assumed I am supporting Romney, I could pay off the national debt.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

FlagDUDE08 said:
And yet, you're so convinced the same thing could not happen to you.
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It can certainly happen, but what's bizarre on the right is they are creating an alternate reality where they assume the best possible circumstances (low turnout, late swing, selective demographic participation) for their desired outcome. The real polling methodologies assume the future will be pretty much like the past, particularly the recent past, in those circumstances.

Here is the difference. Take a very simple political system in which in every four elections one is a Dem wave, one is a Republican wave and two are in the middle. Real polling will tend to underestimate the wave elections, and so they will tend to be slightly wrong for the two waves and pretty close for the two middling elections. The right's "unskewed" (cough, fair and balanced?) polling will tend to be wildly wrong on the Dem wave, slightly wrong on the two middling, and exactly right on the Republican wave.

In terms of relative error:

Actuals: D + M + M + R = Sum; Expected value of error

Real poll: 2 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 6; 1.50
GOP poll: 5 + 2 + 2 + 0 = 9; 2.25

The expected value of the accuracy of the GOP polls will be terrible, but because once every four cycles they will be dead on correct, they will trumpet themselves as accurate (and probably make accusations of voter fraud the other times -- after all, "we were exactly right last time so how could we be so off this time?!"
 
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FlagDUDE08 said:
If I had a nickel for every post you made that assumed I am supporting Romney, I could pay off the national debt.
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You're not supporting Romney because he's losing, or to put it better you don't think he'll win. For a man drawing about 45% of the vote in polls, its real hard to find a wingnut who will come out in public and say they support the guy. It reminds me of GWB. He won re-election with 51% of the vote but by 2006 you couldn't find anybody who'd admit they voted for him.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Ohio: Obama +10
Florida: Obama +9

RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

You know how white working class voters hate Obama? Oops, they don't. Southern white working class voters hate Obama.

blog_white_working_class_romney_obama.jpg
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Rover said:
You're not supporting Romney because he's losing, or to put it better you don't think he'll win. For a man drawing about 45% of the vote in polls, its real hard to find a wingnut who will come out in public and say they support the guy. It reminds me of GWB. He won re-election with 51% of the vote but by 2006 you couldn't find anybody who'd admit they voted for him.
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I haven't supported Romney since he started his campaign. I don't agree with his fascist ideas. The only candidates I have supported are Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and recently Gary Johnson.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Kepler said:
The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Ohio: Obama +10
Florida: Obama +9

RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
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Carter was up by 8 points in October of 1980.

KRACH.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Kepler said:
The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Ohio: Obama +10
Florida: Obama +9

RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
Click to expand...

Those are percentages. They're meaningless.
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

Kepler said:
The GOP better pray to God the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling released today is wrong. Really, really wrong.

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Ohio: Obama +10
Florida: Obama +9

RCP's poll of polls now has Ohio > 5%, moving it out of toss-up entirely. Florida is 3.1%. Both states are currently higher than Obama's margin in 2008.
Click to expand...
Did Dan Rather run the poll?
 
Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

<div style="background-color:#000000;width:520px;"><div style="padding:4px;"><iframe src="http://media.mtvnservices.com/embed/mgid:cms:video:thedailyshow.com:419418" width="512" height="288" frameborder="0"></iframe><p style="text-align:left;background-color:#FFFFFF;padding:4px;margin-top:4px;margin-bottom:0px;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:12px;"><b><a href="http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/tue-september-25-2012/democalypse-2012---every-which-way-but-lucid">The Daily Show with Jon Stewart</a></b><br/>Get More: <a href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a>,<a href='http://www.indecisionforever.com/'>Political Humor & Satire Blog</a>,<a href='http://www.facebook.com/thedailyshow'>The Daily Show on Facebook</a></p></div></div>

The Daily Show gets why Romney is an idiot and why Obama is the luckiest guy around. If Obama was running against a real candidate he would be in trouble. Problem is Romney is a moron and the people in charge of his campaign couldnt run a lemonade stand.

edit: Flag,

My GOP friends call me a liberal and my Dem friends call me a conservative. It all depends on the subject of the discussion.
 
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Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part II -- Charlotte, a National Treasure or sede vaca

FlagDUDE08 said:
Herman Cain, Ron Paul, and recently Gary Johnson.
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Hermain Cain? Seriously? He's essentially Sarah Palin all over again. Ron Paul and Gary Johnson are at least true libertarian wing Republicans.

Hermain Cain is just a walking set of slogans.
 
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