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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
Union does move up to 7, Minnesota and Maine are tied for 8th, but Minnesota wins the comparison by .0002 RPI.
Click to expand...
If one of them sneezes, the other two move ahead in the pairwise. That's how ****ing close their RPIs are.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Nowheresville said:
Out of curiosity, why do you have Michigan going to St. Paul instead of Green Bay?

I had the same brackets out east, but in the west I have Michigan, UMD, Michigan State, and Cornell at Green Bay, with Ferris, MN, Miami, and NoDak in St. Paul.
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Bracket integrity.

2-8-10-15 (35) and 4-5-11-14 (34)
vs
2-5-10-15 (32) and 4-8-11-14 (37)
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Fixed from last week & updated:


1.....Boston College...........29
2.....Minnesota-Duluth.........28
3.....Michigan.................27
4.....Ferris State.............26
5.....Massachusetts-Lowell.....25
6.....Boston University........24
7.....Minnesota................22
8.....Union....................22
9.....Michigan State...........21
10.....Denver...................21
11.....Miami....................19
12.....Maine....................18
13.....Northern Michigan........17
14.....Cornell..................16
15.....North Dakota.............15
16.....Ohio State...............14
17.....Colorado College.........12
18.....Western Michigan.........11
19.....Notre Dame...............11
20.....Merrimack................9
21.....Bemidji State............9
22.....Lake Superior............8

Results are through the end of the season after all games are played. RPI is re-evaluated after every night and the higher RPI team wins.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Ok. After painstakingly fixing all of the playoffs and finalizing the automation of the seeding, wins, reseeding, etc. of the playoffs. Here it is. My David. My Mona Lisa. My Pièce de résistance.

The Predicted SELECTION DAY PWR RANKINGS!!
1.....Boston College...........32
2.....Ferris State.............31
3.....Michigan.................29
4.....Minnesota................29
5.....Minnesota-Duluth.........29
6.....Massachusetts-Lowell.....27
7.....Denver...................26
8.....Union....................25
9.....Boston University........24
10.....Miami....................23
11.....Michigan State...........22
12.....Maine....................21
13.....North Dakota.............20
14.....Cornell..................19
15.....Northern Michigan........17
16.....Colorado College.........17
17.....Bemidji State............17
18.....Air Force................15
19.....Ohio State...............13
20.....Western Michigan.........12
21.....St. Cloud State..........12
22.....Lake Superior............11

The top RPI teams win during the regular season. Each day RPIs are recalculated and the next day is advanced. During the playoffs the top seed wins.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

dxmnkd316 said:
Ok. After painstakingly fixing all of the playoffs and finalizing the automation of the seeding, wins, reseeding, etc. of the playoffs. Here it is. My David. My Mona Lisa. My Pièce de résistance.

The Predicted SELECTION DAY PWR RANKINGS!!
1.....Boston College...........32
2.....Ferris State.............31
3.....Michigan.................29
4.....Minnesota................29
5.....Minnesota-Duluth.........29
6.....Massachusetts-Lowell.....27
7.....Denver...................26
8.....Union....................25
9.....Boston University........24
10.....Miami....................23
11.....Michigan State...........22
12.....Maine....................21
13.....North Dakota.............20
14.....Cornell..................19
15.....Northern Michigan........17
16.....Colorado College.........17
17.....Bemidji State............17
18.....Air Force................15
19.....Ohio State...............13
20.....Western Michigan.........12
21.....St. Cloud State..........12
22.....Lake Superior............11

The top RPI teams win during the regular season. Each day RPIs are recalculated and the next day is advanced. During the playoffs the top seed wins.
Click to expand...

Very cool. Couple questions...

1. Why did you switch it from top RPI wins to top seed for the playoffs? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep top RPI all the way through? If you did that, how would it change the rankings?
2. Isn't it a little unrealistic that there are 0 upsets throughout the rest of the season?
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Very cool. Couple questions...

1. Why did you switch it from top RPI wins to top seed for the playoffs? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep top RPI all the way through? If you did that, how would it change the rankings?
2. Isn't it a little unrealistic that there are 0 upsets throughout the rest of the season?
Click to expand...
I agree with #1 but #2 cannot be predicted.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
Very cool. Couple questions...

1. Why did you switch it from top RPI wins to top seed for the playoffs? Wouldn't it make more sense to keep top RPI all the way through? If you did that, how would it change the rankings?
2. Isn't it a little unrealistic that there are 0 upsets throughout the rest of the season?
Click to expand...

Regarding #1, I flipped because it's going to likely be the same result. Or very close to it. Changing it up would be a pretty significant change but I might be able to do that.

I completely agree that #2 is unrealistic. But it is a combination of two things:
1. It's impossible to predict anything but the better team winning since an upset in league play can have such major consequences.
2. I'm too lazy to run all scenarios from here on out. I can make spreadsheets with the best of them. I struggle with computer simulations on that scale (although, I've never really tried)).
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

How did FSU and UMD fall despite a sweep and 3 pts? And how did BC become the number one seed?
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Biddco said:
How did FSU and UMD fall despite a sweep and 3 pts? And how did BC become the number one seed?
Click to expand...

BC went 2-0 vs a TUC and high RPI team, whereas Ferris twice defeated #48 in the RPI and Duluth beat and tied with #47.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless,

Have you tried Whelan's site again recently? Is it still missing those first 3 games of the year? And, if so, what are the scripts for them again, please?

It's too big a job to play with much right now, but on conference quarterfinal weekend, it is great. It's possible to actually get a good feel for what certain teams need in order to make the NCAAs. I am looking forward to that, and wondering if Whelan has put in all the early season games, yet.

Thanks.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Priceless,

Have you tried Whelan's site again recently? Is it still missing those first 3 games of the year? And, if so, what are the scripts for them again, please?

It's too big a job to play with much right now, but on conference quarterfinal weekend, it is great. It's possible to actually get a good feel for what certain teams need in order to make the NCAAs. I am looking forward to that, and wondering if Whelan has put in all the early season games, yet.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Yes. Yes.
20111001 LS 1 AH 0 NC
20111002 LS 1 AH 0 NC
20111004 Ni 0 Mi 1 NC
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

J.D. said:
Come on, don't play dumb ;)

If I were a Michigan fan, I'd much rather take on Cornell in St. Paul than North Dakota.
Click to expand...

So would I. Fortunately for the rest of us, Michigan doesn't get to pick the brackets. FWIW, I don't think they would swap the two, but I think it is something that should at the very least be discussed.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I actually don't think it should be discussed. As the #2 overall seed, Michigan and fans would be traveling longer to St. Paul with the potential to play Minny in a road game the next day. I don't see any way under that scenario that the committee would then make Michigan play a higher ranked team than they should based off bracket integrity in what would be another road game.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

J.D. said:
I actually don't think it should be discussed. As the #2 overall seed, Michigan and fans would be traveling longer to St. Paul with the potential to play Minny in a road game the next day. I don't see any way under that scenario that the committee would then make Michigan play a higher ranked team than they should based off bracket integrity in what would be another road game.
Click to expand...

It would definitely not be another road game. I would imagine that travel time would be relatively close for each of the two schools. North Dakota would probably have more fans there, but I think you are overestimating how many Sioux fans would actually be there compared with how many Gopher fans would be there rooting against the Sioux. It could very well turn into a quasi-home game for Michigan.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Aren't Sioux fans notorious for flocking to the Final Five/Frozen Four? Why would this be any different? Grand Forks is far closer to St. Paul than Ann Arbor is.
 
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