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2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Rover said:
I think the problem with the wait until next time approach is if you spend too much time out of office you're yesterday's news.
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That's OK if there's distance between and your party's losing message -- you just sweep up the pieces after (c.f. Reagan and the supply siders; Clinton and the DLC). Hard to see how that would apply here. Nobody mentioned except Paul will get enough distance in the life boat before the Titanic sucks them all down.

I have to think if Obama wins again the GOP '16 field will skip the Boomers completely and go right into Gen X. That's a good fit, too, since everybody in Gen X wants to put us out on an ice floe.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
That's OK if there's distance between and your party's losing message -- you just sweep up the pieces after (c.f. Reagan and the supply siders; Clinton and the DLC). Hard to see how that would apply here. Nobody mentioned except Paul will get enough distance in the life boat before the Titanic sucks them all down.

I have to think if Obama wins again the GOP '16 field will skip the Boomers completely and go right into Gen X. That's a good fit, too, since everybody in Gen X wants to put us out on an ice floe.
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Hmmm...that would be a dramatic shift for a party who's base is older voters. In fact I think 4 out of their last 5 nominees have ranged from age 68-74! Bush II being the exception who I believe was in his early 50's. I think of this more as who makes sense geographically. Much like the Dems are doomed if their nominee can't win in rust belt/upper midwest (think Kerry losing Ohio and Iowa), the GOP needs someone who's going to hold the South no problem so they can concentrate on swing states. Perry-Rubio has the potential to nail down a lot of real estate from Florida to Arizona and up to Virginia.

Of course this is all speculation but its very amusing.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Rover said:
Much like the Dems are doomed if their nominee can't win in rust belt/upper midwest (think Kerry losing Ohio and Iowa), the GOP needs someone who's going to hold the South no problem so they can concentrate on swing states. Perry-Rubio has the potential to nail down a lot of real estate from Florida to Arizona and up to Virginia.
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I don't agree. I think the GOP has to start with the assumption that they are winning the South the way the Dems have to assume they are winning CA -- if they have to expend any resources there they're into damage control and limiting the scale of a landslide loss.

I've believed for a while that the real future in electoral swing states is CO-NM-AZ-NV. The next logical extension of this battleground would be TX, if it ever stops being southern and starts being western. The Favorite Son Effect will be less and less important, as no other region clings to regional tribalism as desperately as the South. Future candidates will really be able to come from anywhere.

I think, or maybe just hope, we are entering a period like the 50s and 60s where candidates are moderate and pragmatic. The Dems were dragged kicking and screaming into pragmatism by electoral disaster, and now the GOP faces the same challenge. They literally can't survive on their present course because of demographics, so when they go I think they'll go big. To the extent that legitimate fiscal conservatives are rising among them for the first time since the 1960's, that represents a shift from southern to western priorities.
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Kepler said:
Nate? Or Donald?
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both. :)
I think every pundit out there (and other political junky types) are disappointed this campaign hasn't got going yet. It's like, 'doesn't anyone want to be prez? Sign up here!'
I still expect the Republicans to nominate someone that most Americans have never heard of (Daniels, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Perry, would qualify). I expect that late bloomer will win the election if gas is over $4 all of next summer.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Newt's out already and now Santorum has decided he wants out as well.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...ow_doesnt_understand_how_enhanced_interr.html

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum says Sen. John McCain - who was tortured as a POW in Vietnam - "doesn't understand how enhanced interrogation works."

The former Pennsylvania senator made the eyebrow-raising comments on Hugh Hewitt's radio show Tuesday while discussing how such techniques helped the U.S. find and kill Osama Bin Laden.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...rstand_how_enhanced_interr.html#ixzz1MjgXYGHD
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Mark Salter, a McCain aide, hit back on Facebook.

"For pure, blind stupidity, nobody beats Santorum. In my 20 years \[working\] in the Senate, I never met a dumber member, which he reminded me of today," he wrote.
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This is funny because Santorum actually is one of the dumbest guys to ever be in the Senate. The only ones who really come to mind to challenge him in that department are Bunning and Patty Murray.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

geezer said:
I still expect the Republicans to nominate someone that most Americans have never heard of (Daniels, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Perry, would qualify). I expect that late bloomer will win the election if gas is over $4 all of next summer.
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Of those, Daniels seems the smartest. We'll see whether somebody can rescue them from themselves. My bet is they give us another total zero like Dubya (Rick Perry would be right out of Central Casting for that role).
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Repubs in 2012 = Dems in 2004. A bunch of guys you have to talk yourself into supporting facing a veteran campaign machine of an incumbent with decent ratings and the ability to raise gobs of cash. Of the current crop of candidates I'm not sure how well any of them can conduct a national campaign. Take Pawlenty for example. Does he play in Florida & Virginia? How does Daniels do in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico? Romney in Ohio? I don't know the answer to that, but its an open question that this point. What the GOP could use, oddly enough, is a drawn out primary like the Obama-Clinton one last time which would allow them to establish a presence in all the states and keep themselves in the news (and keep raising cash).

The whole electoral map to victory is a bit fuzzy in my memory right now as its early, but I believe to win whoever the nominee is will have to flip Florida, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio or a couple of the Southwestern states to win. Indy and NC shouldn't be too hard but the rest are a diverse bunch of states save for a unifying issue like the aforementioned 4 dollar gas prices to run on.

EDIT: Just looked it up. GOP would need to flip all the states mentioned (FL, VA, IN, NC, OH) as well as one other state (NH, IA, MN, NV, CO, or NM) to win.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Race is over. Dick Morris just called Bachmann brilliant on National Television.

Bachmann vs. Obama.
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

ScoobyDoo said:
Race is over. Dick Morris just called Bachmann brilliant on National Television.

Bachmann vs. Obama.
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4d7a078d4bc046d8a49f6de5d196f536.png


Who keeps letting Morris on the air?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Two questions:

Has anyone seen Rick Tyler (Gingrich spokesman) and Charlie Sheen at .the same place, at the same time?
Has anyone ever - even for a nanosecond - had the impression that David Gregory is a hard hitting journalist?

Don't let that stop you Charlie/Rick

“The literati sent out their minions to do their bidding,” Tyler wrote. “Washington cannot tolerate threats from outsiders who might disrupt their comfortable world. The firefight started when the cowardly sensed weakness. They fired timidly at first, then the sheep not wanting to be dropped from the establishment’s cocktail party invite list unloaded their entire clip, firing without taking aim their distortions and falsehoods. Now they are left exposed by their bylines and handles. But surely they had killed him off. This is the way it always worked. A lesser person could not have survived the first few minutes of the onslaught. But out of the billowing smoke and dust of tweets and trivia emerged Gingrich, once again ready to lead those who won’t be intimated by the political elite and are ready to take on the challenges America faces.”
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w tfbbq?
 
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

bronconick said:
I think we can count out Sarah Palin

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0516.pdf

Loses a hypothetical election 43-36....to Dennis Kucinich.
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She loses women by 20. So much for hep a sister out. ;)

The best part of the questionairre is:

Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 41%
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Someone Else/Don't Remember..................... 10%
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

Rover said:
The whole electoral map to victory is a bit fuzzy in my memory right now as its early, but I believe to win whoever the nominee is will have to flip Florida, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio or a couple of the Southwestern states to win. Indy and NC shouldn't be too hard but the rest are a diverse bunch of states save for a unifying issue like the aforementioned 4 dollar gas prices to run on.

EDIT: Just looked it up. GOP would need to flip all the states mentioned (FL, VA, IN, NC, OH) as well as one other state (NH, IA, MN, NV, CO, or NM) to win.
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By all rights, unless blacks vote with the same numbers they did in 2008 the GOP should flip NC and VA. It is very hard to relate to an audience of normal people in the rest of the country the visceral resentment of white southerners to their growing irrelevance generally and the policies and personality of the Obama administration specifically. They were afraid of Obama in 2008 but they also despised McCain for not being enough like them so they had low energy. This time around they just hate Obama. It may as well be Selma 1965.

The Rust Belt results will be interesting for at least this last election. Any incumbent is going to have a hard time there as their economy continues to be woeful, but how are all those old blue collar Reagan Democrats in Ohio going to react to the GOP's War on Unions?

On the other hand, are there any states the Dems might flip? Missouri maybe -- the whole "dag dam gubbint" thing rings hollow when the Army Corps of Engineers is all that stands between you and the flood waters. Everywhere else seems like a reach other than Arizona (depending on how the Immigrant Hop is playing out), Montana (not if a Mormon runs), and Georgia (Atlanta vs derp, probably lost for the same reasons as the rest of the Confederacy).
 
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel

I also wouldn't count on Obama picking up Omaha again...the unicameral switched the Sarpy County portion of the district, dropping Bellevue (only moderately right) in favor of the suburbs which lean way, way right. (of course, if the unicameral decides to go back to winner-take-all, it's moot anyway)

Of course, if the Dems can finally find someone decent to run against Terry, then maybe they still carry both the EV and pick up a house seat in the process. By all rights Terry should have lost in 2008, except the Dems ran about the skeeziest guy they could, Jim Esch, against him and there were about 8,000 or so Obama-Terry voters (myself included). The same guy lost by 10 points two years previously.
 
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