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2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
- Thread starter Kepler
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I don't see this happening no matter who is nominated.
P
Priceless
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Well, he did have that seizure in 2007. And who knows, maybe Ann Coulter will put a little strychnine in his Corn Flakes.
Well, he did have that seizure in 2007. And who knows, maybe Ann Coulter will put a little strychnine in his Corn Flakes.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Somebody needs to find out, after recent revelations, if Orrin Hatch still plans on filing that amendment to the Constitution in order to make Arnold Schwartzenegger eligible to run for President!
Couldn't resist, not at Ahhnold's expense but at that idiot Hatch's. I'm going to e-mail his office that question tonight.
Way to early but what the hey - Really surprised by Huckleberry not running. This nomination was his for the taking. He won last time in the Iowa primary. Had he done that again, conceded NH to Romney as everybody else will, and then kicked butt down South when the primaries shifted there I don't see how he'd be stopped. People don't always remember that the Huckster didn't raise tons of cash last time and still had a strong showing, even moving outside of his southern base into the midwest. With no top tier candidate from the regional base of the party (excepting Paul and Gingrich who seem unelectable), I couldn't tell you who wins this thing.
I'll throw one other thing out there. While the ability to make big bucks may be preventing some people from jumping in, I'm also wondering if watching how Donald Trump got destroyed once the admin focused on him didn't discourage a few people too. Having said that, fortune favors the brave, and being out of office for years doesn't seem to be the best avenue for winning your party's nomination (Reagan I guess, or Mondale would be the last). Romney seems to understand this is his last chance unless he's someone's VP pick ala Biden. If a Huck, Palin, Jeb Bush, etc is looking at 2016 instead, I don't think history is going to be on their side.
Kepler, purely for fun, I'd keep an eye on Jim Webb for the Dems in 2016. They always dream of winning back the South and he hits the right notes on military policy and bipartisanship. Really though, I think Hillary takes a few polls quietly two years beforehand to see where she stands vs the rest of the electorate.
Somebody needs to find out, after recent revelations, if Orrin Hatch still plans on filing that amendment to the Constitution in order to make Arnold Schwartzenegger eligible to run for President!
Couldn't resist, not at Ahhnold's expense but at that idiot Hatch's. I'm going to e-mail his office that question tonight.Way to early but what the hey - Really surprised by Huckleberry not running. This nomination was his for the taking. He won last time in the Iowa primary. Had he done that again, conceded NH to Romney as everybody else will, and then kicked butt down South when the primaries shifted there I don't see how he'd be stopped. People don't always remember that the Huckster didn't raise tons of cash last time and still had a strong showing, even moving outside of his southern base into the midwest. With no top tier candidate from the regional base of the party (excepting Paul and Gingrich who seem unelectable), I couldn't tell you who wins this thing.
I'll throw one other thing out there. While the ability to make big bucks may be preventing some people from jumping in, I'm also wondering if watching how Donald Trump got destroyed once the admin focused on him didn't discourage a few people too. Having said that, fortune favors the brave, and being out of office for years doesn't seem to be the best avenue for winning your party's nomination (Reagan I guess, or Mondale would be the last). Romney seems to understand this is his last chance unless he's someone's VP pick ala Biden. If a Huck, Palin, Jeb Bush, etc is looking at 2016 instead, I don't think history is going to be on their side.
Kepler, purely for fun, I'd keep an eye on Jim Webb for the Dems in 2016. They always dream of winning back the South and he hits the right notes on military policy and bipartisanship. Really though, I think Hillary takes a few polls quietly two years beforehand to see where she stands vs the rest of the electorate.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
My wife has worked with Webb and his staff. Her impression: he's not particularly impressive, has very good staff who he listens to when they have expertise, is actually more insincere than the typical Member (this is not necessarily an insult), and is ridiculously -- almost clinically -- personally ambitious. In other words: her exact impression of Obama. Except trying to carry a firearm onto a plane is really stupid, even for a Member.
I think the Dems have finally smartened up enough to let the South rot. VA is getting more and more educated and affluent and will be on the bubble. FL is going to be an epic battle of The Derp vs The Olds. My money's on The Olds this time: the GOP scared the hell outta them with Ryan. But the rest of the slave states are solid red from now until the Eschaton (which is apparently Saturday).
My wife has worked with Webb and his staff. Her impression: he's not particularly impressive, has very good staff who he listens to when they have expertise, is actually more insincere than the typical Member (this is not necessarily an insult), and is ridiculously -- almost clinically -- personally ambitious. In other words: her exact impression of Obama. Except trying to carry a firearm onto a plane is really stupid, even for a Member.
I think the Dems have finally smartened up enough to let the South rot. VA is getting more and more educated and affluent and will be on the bubble. FL is going to be an epic battle of The Derp vs The Olds. My money's on The Olds this time: the GOP scared the hell outta them with Ryan. But the rest of the slave states are solid red from now until the Eschaton (which is apparently Saturday).
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Good call.
Good call.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Orrin is a genius I tell you, A GENIUS!!!
Somebody needs to find out, after recent revelations, if Orrin Hatch still plans on filing that amendment to the Constitution in order to make Arnold Schwartzenegger eligible to run for President!
Orrin is a genius I tell you, A GENIUS!!!
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Regarding Pawlenty, a guy I admit to knowing little about, has anybody won the Presidency in recent memory without winning their home state? Obviously that was fatal for Gore, but looking back (and going by adopted home states not where they were born) Clinton carried Arkansas twice (and 3 other Confederate states believe it or not), Reagan won California twice which was far more Republican then than now, etc. This would be a problem for Romney too (and Bachmann I suppose).
Regarding Pawlenty, a guy I admit to knowing little about, has anybody won the Presidency in recent memory without winning their home state? Obviously that was fatal for Gore, but looking back (and going by adopted home states not where they were born) Clinton carried Arkansas twice (and 3 other Confederate states believe it or not), Reagan won California twice which was far more Republican then than now, etc. This would be a problem for Romney too (and Bachmann I suppose).
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I don't think they have. Gore came pretty close. Pawlenty has absolutely no shot at carrying Minnesota.
I don't think they have. Gore came pretty close. Pawlenty has absolutely no shot at carrying Minnesota.
P
Priceless
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Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Which is Romney's home state this week?
Which is Romney's home state this week?
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I think you have to go back to Wilson. That probably pushes the "favorite" status back onto Daniels, I guess.
Gingrich just shot himself in the foot with ripping Jesus Ryan's budget.
I think you have to go back to Wilson. That probably pushes the "favorite" status back onto Daniels, I guess.
Gingrich just shot himself in the foot with ripping Jesus Ryan's budget.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
It's quite amazing. All in one weekend he announced and was finished. I think it's a new record.
It's quite amazing. All in one weekend he announced and was finished. I think it's a new record.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
People are putting a lot of faith in Daniels. Maybe its warranted but while Romney is going to get hit on healthcare, I find it hard to believe Daniels isn't going to get hit on budget deficits while he was Bush's budget director.
The problem with all of these people (Daniels, Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich) is they all seem to be "establishment" when the primary voters want insurgents. Bachmann fits the profile voters seem to want much like Palin did. Huckabee managed to have foot in both camps which is why I considered him the favorite. I'm not sure who captures that energy at this point. It would be ironic in this current climate if the GOP fell back to the "hair apparent" (Romney), or better said the next in line pattern for their nominee.
People are putting a lot of faith in Daniels. Maybe its warranted but while Romney is going to get hit on healthcare, I find it hard to believe Daniels isn't going to get hit on budget deficits while he was Bush's budget director.
The problem with all of these people (Daniels, Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich) is they all seem to be "establishment" when the primary voters want insurgents. Bachmann fits the profile voters seem to want much like Palin did. Huckabee managed to have foot in both camps which is why I considered him the favorite. I'm not sure who captures that energy at this point. It would be ironic in this current climate if the GOP fell back to the "hair apparent"
(Romney), or better said the next in line pattern for their nominee.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Well, no way Daniels can get elected. He looks like a Hobbit. Bachmann's people are pretty sure she is going to run and there is a HUGE opening for her right now. Having her win the Presidency would complete the idiocracy that has been happening in this country since Reagan was elected.
Well, no way Daniels can get elected. He looks like a Hobbit. Bachmann's people are pretty sure she is going to run and there is a HUGE opening for her right now. Having her win the Presidency would complete the idiocracy that has been happening in this country since Reagan was elected.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
GOP strategists will say all the right things on the Sunday morning shows, but I have to believe that, privately, their aim is squarely on the Senate. None of their candidates who could really push Obama are going to run. Why risk the career-ending embarassment of being the Republican who lost to Obama, when you could just wait until the next election to run?
GOP strategists will say all the right things on the Sunday morning shows, but I have to believe that, privately, their aim is squarely on the Senate. None of their candidates who could really push Obama are going to run. Why risk the career-ending embarassment of being the Republican who lost to Obama, when you could just wait until the next election to run?
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I'm going to want to see a primary or two before I'm convinced that the Republicans are going to go all anti-establishment. Are the Tea Partiers going to be able to pick their one "crazy" and then fund that person? Because otherwise, they'll get buried in an avalanche of corporate money from the other half of the party.
I'm going to want to see a primary or two before I'm convinced that the Republicans are going to go all anti-establishment. Are the Tea Partiers going to be able to pick their one "crazy" and then fund that person? Because otherwise, they'll get buried in an avalanche of corporate money from the other half of the party.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
I think the problem with the wait until next time approach is if you spend too much time out of office you're yesterday's news. Huckabee left office in when? 2006? Pawlenty 2010 I think. Palin 2009, Gingrich 1999, Romney 2006. Now fast forward to 2016. Most of these people would have been out the public arena for almost a decade. That's a long time in the wilderness to try and stay relevant when current officeholders can make a lot more noise. I'm sure they're all using Reagan as their gold standard but even he was only out of office for 6 years, and he was coming off a strong primary challenge where he almost knocked off a sitting President. I'm thinking 5 years from now a guy like Rick Perry, who can be in office at least until Jan 2015 or even a Rubio has a much better launching platform than these people.
I think the problem with the wait until next time approach is if you spend too much time out of office you're yesterday's news. Huckabee left office in when? 2006? Pawlenty 2010 I think. Palin 2009, Gingrich 1999, Romney 2006. Now fast forward to 2016. Most of these people would have been out the public arena for almost a decade. That's a long time in the wilderness to try and stay relevant when current officeholders can make a lot more noise. I'm sure they're all using Reagan as their gold standard but even he was only out of office for 6 years, and he was coming off a strong primary challenge where he almost knocked off a sitting President. I'm thinking 5 years from now a guy like Rick Perry, who can be in office at least until Jan 2015 or even a Rubio has a much better launching platform than these people.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
Meh. I see no problem. All those people you mentioned who are out of office belong in the "won't win" category, anyway. They don't matter. They may as well run, if only to raise their national profile. As you mentioned, it's a different story for current office holders. That group *does* include at least a few legit presidential candidates. And I don't see them risking anything on 2012.
Meh. I see no problem. All those people you mentioned who are out of office belong in the "won't win" category, anyway. They don't matter. They may as well run, if only to raise their national profile. As you mentioned, it's a different story for current office holders. That group *does* include at least a few legit presidential candidates. And I don't see them risking anything on 2012.
Hammer
We'll be back.
Re: 2012 Elections Part I: All Politics is Yokel
In the last 80 years, the only candidates to NOT carry what was considered their home states are Gore, McGovern and Stevenson twice in the 50's. We know how all of those ended up.
In the last 80 years, the only candidates to NOT carry what was considered their home states are Gore, McGovern and Stevenson twice in the 50's. We know how all of those ended up.
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