2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Looking at 270towin it is currently 262-161 with 115 EV up for grabs. The battleground states are: FL, OH, NC, VA, AZ, MO, SC, IA, NH. Of the 9 undecided states, Romney is ahead in three (FL, IA, MO) and tied in one (CO). Giving him those four states (plus SC because no way in hell the state where treason began is voting for a black man) the vote is 314-224.

RealClear Politics has it 253-170 with the same 115 EVs as toss ups, with SC in the Romney column and CO undecided. In those, Obama leads in all but Missouri and Arizona which would be a 347-191 landslide.

While it's too early for polls to be accurate, it does tell us where the battleground is likely to be: States that a GOP nominee should have already wrapped up like Missouri, Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are now securely Democratic rather than battleground states. It leaves Romney with a razor-thin margin of error and a difficult path to the presidency.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

You didn't know me during the Bush years...no "if" about it. Definitely not affiliated with either party. Most of my life I was more likely to vote Democrat [unless you actually lived through the Carter Presidency you cannot criticize anyone for voting for Reagan in 1980!], loved Richard M Daley as mayor of Chicago for example, liked and respected Joe Lieberman both before and after the party tossed him out. As the Dems continued to drift leftward, I found fewer and fewer of them to like; that however did not lead to any particular infatuation with the GOP to take its place. I wind up more aligned with them these days because the entire country has moved leftward, not that I've changed my views much.

On which axes has the country moved leftward?

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I've read Rubio's problem is some financial difficulties in recent years. Not sure if its exactly related to him using the state party's credit card for personal expenses or not. Anyway, the idea is that if he gives it awhile this should blow over in time which makes sense.

Biden doesn't help nor hurt, so no reason to do anything drastic like bring Hillary Clinton on board. Were Obama losing the race or running even with women perhaps you'd try to shake things up but at this point no need to make waves.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

States that a GOP nominee should have already wrapped up like Missouri, Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are now securely Democratic rather than battleground states. It leaves Romney with a razor-thin margin of error and a difficult path to the presidency.

Has a GOP nominee EVER won in Penn, MI, WI, and Minn? As I recall, MN didn't even vote for Reagan.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Looking at 270towin it is currently 262-161 with 115 EV up for grabs. The battleground states are: FL, OH, NC, VA, AZ, MO, SC, IA, NH. Of the 9 undecided states, Romney is ahead in three (FL, IA, MO) and tied in one (CO). Giving him those four states (plus SC because no way in hell the state where treason began is voting for a black man) the vote is 314-224.

RealClear Politics has it 253-170 with the same 115 EVs as toss ups, with SC in the Romney column and CO undecided. In those, Obama leads in all but Missouri and Arizona which would be a 347-191 landslide.

While it's too early for polls to be accurate, it does tell us where the battleground is likely to be: States that a GOP nominee should have already wrapped up like Missouri, Arizona, North Carolina and Virginia. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are now securely Democratic rather than battleground states. It leaves Romney with a razor-thin margin of error and a difficult path to the presidency.

I read a good analysis of this. Apparently the high water mark of the GOP for electoral votes in the last 5 elections is Bush in '04 who won like 286. That would translate to 290 something this time around, but would necessitate winning New Mexico and Nevada which few think will happen for The Mittster (indeed Rassmussen has him losing NV by almost double digits). That brings him back to the 280's as a high water mark, and will mean winning Iowa (6 votes) and Colorado (9 votes) as well as every other swing state you mentioned.

The conclusion I read is that as winning every swing state is a bit much to ask for (even Bush in 04 lost NH), Romney will need to put a previously Dem state in play (WI, PA, etc). As you write, I've yet to see any evidence he's done so, while at the same time he's losing 4 states (OH, VA, NC, NH) and tied in two others (AZ, FL) that are fatal to his chances if any one falls.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

On which axes has the country moved leftward?

The one on which a larger proportion of the population than ever before receives a government benefit of one kind or another...the one on which a smaller proportion of the population is paying income tax than at any time since WWII.

Ironically, the latter is partly Bush's fault, since the "Bush" tax cuts were across the board for everyone. The arguments we read about are never about all of the cuts, merely about the ones for the top bracket.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The one on which a larger proportion of the population than ever before receives a government benefit of one kind or another

Which is mostly the result of the graying of the population.

...the one on which a smaller proportion of the population is paying income tax than at any time since WWII.

Which was the Trojan Horse the right used to slash the top marginal rates: "we'll drop the bottom rate so they save $500 and because they're bad at math they won't notice or care that we're saving the top $5,000,000. Bwahaha."

I am all for having 100% of the population that earns income pay income tax. Restore the 1955 tax brackets.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Has a GOP nominee EVER won in Penn, MI, WI, and Minn? As I recall, MN didn't even vote for Reagan.

Not since Bush the Elder in Michigan/Wisconsin and Reagan in Pennsylvania.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Pawlenty adds nothing. Similar boring personality as Romney and he loses his state anyway.

Jindal is a safe but splashy pick at the same time. He doesn't do anything for you electorally, but it would give some positive buzz.

Portman looks way better on paper than in reality. Lets say he does bring Ohio over. Great, but what about the South (VA, NC, FL) and Southwest (NV, AZ, CO, NM) that Romney desperately needs to win. You're going to run on the economy with Bush's budget director? Anybody else see a problem here?

That leaves Rubio, Ryan and McDonnell. Obviously Rubio would be the top choice, but he doesn't seem to want the job. Unless he changes his mind I think the pick is either between Paul Ryan and Bob McDonnell.

Short of that, Bob McDonnell is more limited but could help in VA and NC. He's not going to help close the gender gap much obviously but that ship has already sailed. Lose any state down South and The Mittster is toast. Might as well show your dedication to the region by taking someone from it. Might not help but certainly can't hurt.

Not sure that Christie would overshadow Mitt but he might. The killer is that he's from Jersey...NEsterner and detracts from the electoral map.
Jindahls fine. Decent experience, minority appeal, from an area of the south and state that might be foregone anyways.
Still think Portman has to be high on the list. Nobody's from the perfect state...Ohio is about as strategically placed as any.
Ryan would be a great choice...very sharp guy. Might well take Wisconsin...but that's where the influence stops...no Minnesota and not a difference maker in Iowa. But with his leadership already established...he is the one guy that could absolutely overshadow Mitt.
Bob McDonnell, I just haven't looked into. He could well be another good choice. Another governor...may add the experience, maybe not so much. Not sure. Virgina is good, New England plus MidAtlantic not ideal for a national run.

The out-of-the-box VP candidate would be Donald Trump; never happen, he'd be seen as too polarizing, and Bloomberg would be seen as too liberal.

You want to see Mitt's campaign turn into a total circus? Put Trump on the ticket...Trump wants pub and he gets pub even if the ticket flames out.
Rubio is good. Florida is a top notch choice. Yet he's what 31? He really may not have the depth once he gets put in the spotlight. Maybe better to let him ferment for another election or two.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The VP means nothing unless you do the galactically stupid an pick Sarah Palin.

And go ahead and pick Bob McDonnell. He's the one that wants to rape women before they can have an abortion.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Has a GOP nominee EVER won in Penn, MI, WI, and Minn? As I recall, MN didn't even vote for Reagan.

The GOP last won in Minnesota in 1972, Wisconsin in 1984 and Michigan and Pennsylvania in 1988...however, these used to at least be the battleground states. Kerry won Wisconsin by a slim margin (I remember, because when I predicted in Feb '04 that it would be tight I was scoffed at ) and Michigan was in play late into the election season in '08. Did McCain ever give up in PA?

The battleground has shifted to the GOP states this election. Advantage: Obama

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The VP means nothing unless you do the galactically stupid an pick Sarah Palin.

And go ahead and pick Bob McDonnell. He's the one that wants to rape women before they can have an abortion.

As I said, I don't think Palin was an issue except that McCain was an old farker who looked like him dropping dead was entirely possible. Palin wasn't any worse an idea as President then Quayle. Bush I just looked like he could live another 30 years (and is most of the way to doing so.)

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

As I said, I don't think Palin was an issue except that McCain was an old farker who looked like him dropping dead was entirely possible. Palin wasn't any worse an idea as President then Quayle. Bush I just looked like he could live another 30 years (and is most of the way to doing so.)

I could see that argument being valid. She only became an issue because with McCain most believed the VP would probably become President someday.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The one on which a larger proportion of the population than ever before receives a government benefit of one kind or another...the one on which a smaller proportion of the population is paying income tax than at any time since WWII.

Ironically, the latter is partly Bush's fault, since the "Bush" tax cuts were across the board for everyone. The arguments we read about are never about all of the cuts, merely about the ones for the top bracket.

Thanks - that makes sense, though Kepler's point is well-taken.

My confusion stems from the fact that I don't see expansion of the federal government in terms of right and left. I see it as an institutional outcome (see Mo Fiorina) more than an ideological one. I wish it were different - or, at least, that I believed differently. But I don't.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The one on which a larger proportion of the population than ever before receives a government benefit of one kind or another...the one on which a smaller proportion of the population is paying income tax than at any time since WWII.

Ironically, the latter is partly Bush's fault, since the "Bush" tax cuts were across the board for everyone. The arguments we read about are never about all of the cuts, merely about the ones for the top bracket.

So, getting to keep YOUR OWN MONEY is the same as welfare and foodstamps?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Which is mostly the result of the graying of the population.



Which was the Trojan Horse the right used to slash the top marginal rates: "we'll drop the bottom rate so they save $500 and because they're bad at math they won't notice or care that we're saving the top $5,000,000. Bwahaha."

I am all for having 100% of the population that earns income pay income tax. Restore the 1955 tax brackets.

You're confusing me. Progressivity is fine and dandy when it comes to taking money AWAY from citizens but not when it comes to taking LESS money from citizens? Let's just take all their d*amn money and have done with it?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I think he's trying to say that the fundamentals of the economy are sound.

Let me think...what incumbent party have I heard that from before? Oh, right - every single one of them.

And your lips didn't move. Bravo.

No chance His Magnificence dumps Biden. I'm surprised you all haven't snapped to it yet: Biden's torrent of gaffes makes His Onness look like Aristotle.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

So, getting to keep YOUR OWN MONEY is the same as welfare and foodstamps?

I don't follow at all....I said that two metrics that indicate that the country has moved leftward (no matter what the purported "reason", the data is the data) are that

1.) proportionately more people are collecting government benefits than ever before, and that
2.) proportionately fewer people are paying income tax than at any time since WWII.

​

In other words, only the "well-to-do" are paying income taxes these days, when it used to be that most people paid at least some income tax. Isn't that a leftward tilt?

I just don't see how your post is responsive to that at all. Maybe I missed something somewhere?

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

And go ahead and pick Bob McDonnell. He's the one that wants to rape women before they can have an abortion.

And that puts him out of the GOP mainsteam....how?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I don't follow at all....I said that two metrics that indicate that the country has moved leftward (no matter what the purported "reason", the data is the data) are that

1.) proportionately more people are collecting government benefits than ever before, and that
2.) proportionately fewer people are paying income tax than at any time since WWII.

​

In other words, only the "well-to-do" are paying income taxes these days, when it used to be that most people paid at least some income tax. Isn't that a leftward tilt?

I just don't see how your post is responsive to that at all. Maybe I missed something somewhere?

It seemed to me you were comparing being taxed less with a "government benefit." Attaching the broadest possible meaning to "benefit." If that was not your intent, then I withdraw what I said.