2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

UAVs are great, and they have their place. I'm not 100% convinced yet that they are the solution for air-to-air combat, though that hypothesis won't be tested for many years out. That is a problem orders of magnitude harder than hitting a fixed (or even moving) target on the ground. Even if the target is not known ahead of time, "search and destroy" is trivial compared to "dogfight against a human pilot."

Even so, $2M strike UAVs wouldn't be able to take out anything bigger than a few Jeeps or maybe a tank. For that price, you're talking about a very small vehicle with limited "missions systems" (i.e. sensors and weapons) capability. Payload can only be some fraction (perhaps 20%, if you're lucky) of the total vehicle weight, and kill power scales directly with weight. The F117 carries a max of 5000 lbs of payload - you'd be lucky to get 500 lbs in a $2M UAV. A single Tomahawk cruise missile is pushing $1M, and any combat-capable UAV is going to be way more expensive than that. "Clouds" of UAVs is fun sci-fi, but it's not terribly realistic.

Their best use is for surgical strikes against soft targets, rather than as the main punch of a front line battle group. In other words, the ultimate weapon of choice in the war on terror. Perhaps that is the direction that all warfare is heading, but I don't think the US is quite ready to disband its mainline Air Force just yet.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I'd also recmmend downplaying that "running the world's largest economy stuff." Because that's not what a president does. And even if it were, he's done a manifestly lousy job of it. Remember: "If unemployment remains about 8% I don't deserve a second term?" And the trillion dollar "stimulous" package, complete with "shovel ready jobs" that was going to make that happen? You do remember, don't you?

Businesses are doing great. The Dow has doubled since W. Banks have the highest profits since 2006 and considerable other companies' since the 90s. Besides during Obama's administration, there have been 600k govt jobs cut according to newmax. What's your solution if there's plenty of funds out there for hiring...but it ain't happenen.

Are you suggesting there be some sort of <gasp> government intervention to force businesses to hire? Are you suggesting that we baloon govt spending further?

Enough tangents, back to the original point. Romney is at an equal footing with BO's political experience last time out. Rubio might be disadvantagous due to his inexperience...leaving a Romney without an experienced hand. That leaves Portman as an interesting case. Portman (1) has experience and can actually help round out the ticket, (2) is from the Cincy area with more blue collar appeal, and (3) is a senator, not house member, representing a huge swing state that helps to address weakness in the pivotal midwest. His biggest drawback from what I can see is that he makes Romney look both warm and colorful in comparison. Still a better choice than Rubio.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Romney's VP isn't going to be that important. He'll find someone to shore up a weakness of his, either electorally or policy wise, but Romney looks young and healthy. McCain looked old, had fought off cancer and I believe he's still occasionally having malignant growths taken off his skin. His choice became important because there was a higher than 1% chance that they would have to take power, even temporarily.

When you get down to it, Biden isn't exactly someone I'd consider to be Presidential or vote for.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

People believe what they want to believe, and then try to justify those beliefs after the fact. that's how our minds work. "Reason" and "logic" are artificial constructions, our minds do not "naturally" follow those paths.

See Daniel Kahneman's fascinating books on the subject.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I guess its not Paul...Bachmann endorses Romney.

What a hypocrite.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

What a hypocrite.

You always hurt the ones you love.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

The guy's a Rhodes Scholar, which under different circumstances you guys used to suggest is a terrific credential. Bill Clinton fell flat on his face on national TV, too. So?

Whatever happend to not jumping to conclusions? And looking at the complete record? And taking a "nuanced" approach? And having an open mind? And all that other boilerplate?

Did you just selectively edit the first sentence? Jindal may be brilliant. I have no idea. He has a perception problem because he had that one appearance and he looked like a complete boob. If/when he makes a national run, we'll see him lots of times and we'll be able to make a much better assessment.

I think Clinton's an excellent example -- he was dreadful when he gave that speech (was that the '88 keynote?), and then he rebounded. Jindal can certainly do the same.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Businesses are doing great. The Dow has doubled since W. Banks have the highest profits since 2006 and considerable other companies' since the 90s. Besides during Obama's administration, there have been 600k govt jobs cut according to newmax. What's your solution if there's plenty of funds out there for hiring...but it ain't happenen.

Are you suggesting there be some sort of <gasp> government intervention to force businesses to hire? Are you suggesting that we baloon govt spending further?

Enough tangents, back to the original point. Romney is at an equal footing with BO's political experience last time out. Rubio might be disadvantagous due to his inexperience...leaving a Romney without an experienced hand. That leaves Portman as an interesting case. Portman (1) has experience and can actually help round out the ticket, (2) is from the Cincy area with more blue collar appeal, and (3) is a senator, not house member, representing a huge swing state that helps to address weakness in the pivotal midwest. His biggest drawback from what I can see is that he makes Romney look both warm and colorful in comparison. Still a better choice than Rubio.

Have it your way. The economy's great. Frankly, Scarlet, I don't give a rip who Romney picks as his running mate. I don't vote for running mates. And I know that you will have the dossier readily available that will "prove" it's a bad choice. His Lackofexperienceness chose one of the biggest gas bags on Capitol Hill to be his running mate. A known plaigiarizer, in fact. I don't know, don't recall and don't care what your reaction was. I'm guessing you thought it was a great choice.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Couple that with the development of numerous new weapons systems that far out stripped anything seen before and had never been used in combat. I think the two best books on the run up to the war are "The Guns of August" and "The Zimmerman Telegram," both by Barbara Tuchman.

"The Guns of August" is my favorite pop history book, hands down. It's absolutely wonderful, and it's extremely readable, even for a very slow reader like me.

Her "Through a Distant Mirror" is also beautiful. Academics apparently don't take her seriously, but she does the one thing I have always wanted from NF authors: she communicates difficult material clearly and concisely, and without jargon. Would that Academe learn that lesson.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

When you get down to it, Biden isn't exactly someone I'd consider to be Presidential or vote for.

Biden's three "qualities" were (1) old, (2) white, and (3) foreign policy chops, to counter three of Obama's "weaknesses."

Going by that model, Romney's ideal VP should be (1) "acceptably" Christian, (2) blue collar-ish, and (3) have significant government experience. There used to be a hundred southern and prairie guys like that, there has to be at least one left.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Biden's three "qualities" were (1) old, (2) white, and (3) foreign policy chops, to counter three of Obama's "weaknesses."

Going by that model, Romney's ideal VP should be (1) "acceptably" Christian, (2) blue collar-ish, and (3) have significant government experience. There used to be a hundred southern and prairie guys like that, there has to be at least one left.

Unfortunately, Rick Santorum can't stand Romney.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

the one thing I have always wanted from NF authors: ... communicate difficult material clearly and concisely, and without jargon. Would that Academe learn that lesson.

have you ever read Thorsten Veblen's The Theory of the Leisure Class?

Once you get past the sesquepedalian words, it turns out he has quite a droll sense of humor, and actually discovers something new and insightful.

On the other hand, it seems to me that one reason many in Academe today do not write clearly, concisely, and without jargon, is that if they did so, it might demonstrate how content-free their work actually is......

I knew someone who had to give a speech once as a high school student, and she deliberately set out ahead of time to make it content-free, merely to see how many people would notice. As she relates the story, no one did except her peers.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

have you ever read Thorsten Veblen's The Theory of the Leisure Class?

Yep. Required reading for Sociology grad students and the closest thing we have to a "Mocumentary." Veblen was an interesting guy. Very big with the ladies, too (not so big on fidelity).

On the other hand, it seems to me that one reason many in Academe today do not write clearly, concisely, and without jargon, is that if they did so, it might demonstrate how content-free their work actually is......

That's an easy criticism... and one I wholeheartedly share! Some phenomenologist out of UCLA wrote a great anthropological study of academics in the 70's and he compared the use of jargon to religious terminology employed by high priests, for purposes of (1) intimidation, (2) obfuscation of simple points, and (3) gatekeeping & job security. Funnily enough he got invited to a lot of conferences after that. Academics have many faults, but one thing they are great at is making fun of themselves.

I knew someone who had to give a speech once as a high school student, and she deliberately set out ahead of time to make it content-free, merely to see how many people would notice. As she relates the story, no one did except her peers.

Reminds me of this wonderful story.

I love academia, but I want to fix it. The proliferation of jargon and outright nonsense is the equivalent of the corruption of the church in the 15th century. They need a Martin Luther.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

While I agree its unlikely a VP choice will make a difference, you also have to consider who will cause a problem or add nothing.

So, take Rubio, Christie, McDonnell, Pawlenty, Ryan, Jindal, Portman and Ayotte (all the names I've heard thrown about).

First, eliminate Christie. Aside from the GOP ticket from 1900, you never want your VP candidate to be more interesting than the top of the ticket (see Palin-McCain for that). Christie overshadows - no pun intended - Romney to a degree that's detrimental to his chances.

Ayotte does nothing for you. If Romney can't win the state next door where he lives part time without taking someone with little experience from there, he might as well give up the ghost.

Pawlenty adds nothing. Similar boring personality as Romney and he loses his state anyway.

Jindal is a safe but splashy pick at the same time. He doesn't do anything for you electorally, but it would give some positive buzz.

Portman looks way better on paper than in reality. Lets say he does bring Ohio over. Great, but what about the South (VA, NC, FL) and Southwest (NV, AZ, CO, NM) that Romney desperately needs to win. You're going to run on the economy with Bush's budget director? Anybody else see a problem here?

That leaves Rubio, Ryan and McDonnell. Obviously Rubio would be the top choice, but he doesn't seem to want the job. Unless he changes his mind I think the pick is either between Paul Ryan and Bob McDonnell. I say in for a penny, in for a pound and pick Ryan. Romney is going to have to own that budget anyway. Let Ryan make the case with you. Maybe he puts Wisconsin in play. He certainly brings conservatives, Tea partiers, etc along for the ride. Plus unlike Rubio the two candidates would be in sync on all the issues.

Short of that, Bob McDonnell is more limited but could help in VA and NC. He's not going to help close the gender gap much obviously but that ship has already sailed. Lose any state down South and The Mittster is toast. Might as well show your dedication to the region by taking someone from it. Might not help but certainly can't hurt.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Interesting thoughts. I don't agree with the argument about Christie -- I just don't think it holds water.

Regionally, if it even matters anymore in our national age, I wouldn't recommend them picking a southerner, either. If they are still working on shoring up the south the election is lost anyway. So if they go for a region it should be PA-OH; Santorum or Portman territory.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

While I agree its unlikely a VP choice will make a difference, you also have to consider who will cause a problem or add nothing.

Unless he changes his mind I think the pick is either between Paul Ryan and Bob McDonnell. I say in for a penny, in for a pound and pick Ryan. Romney is going to have to own that budget anyway. Let Ryan make the case with you. Maybe he puts Wisconsin in play. He certainly brings conservatives, Tea partiers, etc along for the ride. Plus unlike Rubio the two candidates would be in sync on all the issues.

If I'm the GOP, absolutely no way whatsoever would I want Ryan to be the VP choice. He is far too valuable in Congress with the position he has there now. It would be absurd to trade that for a ceremonial position with little real clout.

The out-of-the-box VP candidate would be Donald Trump; never happen, he'd be seen as too polarizing, and Bloomberg would be seen as too liberal. It's too bad there isn't another well-respected business person available, especially one that has already endowed a huge charitable foundation, that would really make it a choice between public-sector stagnation vs private-sector vigor. The choice of any politician dilutes the message that "it's still about the economy." Next-best probably is a governor over a Senator, we elected a Senator in '08 and look where that brought us; the country needs competent administrators not permanent campaigners (I'm trying to speak from the Republican vantage point here not my own; if I were a campaign consultant what would I recommend).

Rumor is that Rubio does want the job but has a skeleton over which he'd be mercilessly skewered if it were to emerge before he fixed it, and so he has to defer for now but not forever.



Now, switching to the Dems for a moment....do you keep Biden on the ticket or do you replace him? Does it even matter?

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Have it your way. The economy's great. Frankly, Scarlet, I don't give a rip who Romney picks as his running mate. I don't vote for running mates. And I know that you will have the dossier readily available that will "prove" it's a bad choice. His Lackofexperienceness chose one of the biggest gas bags on Capitol Hill to be his running mate. A known plaigiarizer, in fact. I don't know, don't recall and don't care what your reaction was. I'm guessing you thought it was a great choice.

I think he's trying to say that the fundamentals of the economy are sound.

Let me think...what incumbent party have I heard that from before? Oh, right - every single one of them.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Reminds me of this wonderful story.

I love academia, but I want to fix it. The proliferation of jargon and outright nonsense is the equivalent of the corruption of the church in the 15th century. They need a Martin Luther.

I love that story, too. But picking on a humanities journal (and a non-peer-reviewed one at that) . . . [insert un-PC joke of choice about Special Olympics].

The bigger problem is the hyperjargon / questionable relevance of "real" research. That's not going to be so easy to fix. Immediate cause is probably the rationalization of research standards. The impact of research used to be plagued by biases, but on the plus side, it also used to actually mean something. Now, we've rationalized it. Now, impact is the product of a recursive formula involving citation counts weighted by citation counts, which has the pathologies of promoting cliques and excessive jargon. But we can't go back, because the stakes are higher than ever. Waaaaay too many PhDs chasing too few positions. And we can't do anything about that, because we need those PhDs - preferably in idealistic grad-school form - to provide cheap labor. And we can't do anything about the cheap labor / pyramid scheme because of resource scarcity - which is itself the product of cutbacks in public support combined with the entrenchment of the norm that anyone with half a brain absolutely HAS to obtain a 4-year (preferably residential) degree, or else risk a life of economic marginalization.

So...the system needs fixing. But where to start?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

If I'm the GOP

"If"?

Now, switching to the Dems for a moment....do you keep Biden on the ticket or do you replace him? Does it even matter?

It matters, keep him. He still may have some residual usefulness and he doesn't hurt. If they put somebody new on the ticket it would start the whole Swiftboating circus of "oh, noes, X isn't a True American because of (insert whatever accusation fits the polling data the best)." Plus there's only one credible replacement, and no thanks.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

"If"?

You didn't know me during the Bush years...no "if" about it. Definitely not affiliated with either party. Most of my life I was more likely to vote Democrat [unless you actually lived through the Carter Presidency you cannot criticize anyone for voting for Reagan in 1980!], loved Richard M Daley as mayor of Chicago for example, liked and respected Joe Lieberman both before and after the party tossed him out. As the Dems continued to drift leftward, I found fewer and fewer of them to like; that however did not lead to any particular infatuation with the GOP to take its place. I wind up more interested in them these days merely because the entire country has moved leftward, not that I've changed my views much.

It's amusing for people to talk about how "right-wing" Bush was after No Child Left Behind (bi-partisan bill with Ted Kennedy), Medicare Prescription Drug Part D (the conservatives were apoplectic about it at the time), or his partnering with Bono on AIDs relief for Africa. It's like they want to have a narrative and ignore all contrary data.

The left never forgave Bush for carrying Florida by 534 votes in 1980 and it's the feeling of betrayal that fueled their passion against him far more than anything in his actual record would indicate. Even Iraq would have been forgivable had he had any plan at all for what to do with the country after Saddam fell; had he not let that country fall into sectarian anarchy for three years, his Presidency would be viewed quite differently (people forget that at the time, there were two UN resolutions and that Russia and China had both acquiesced, it was France and Chirac that vetoed military action because it turned out half of the French government was secretly accepting bribes from Saddam in the "Oil for Food" program, and that Bush went to Congress to get approval for Iraq war before he invaded, and received substantial bi-partisan support at the outset as well. I think the Senate vote was something like 74 - 23).