2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

[mookie1995]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

are you saying it would be smarter to say, "hey, if i happen to win... you guys can come stay. you know, maybe".

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

CNN has Obama with a 9-point lead over Flipfloppy McNicehair.

Ahem.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Ahem.

Mitt's the likely winner. Too many intangibles working against Obama. The stupidity of the electorate (elected GW twice) being the main one.

 

[leswp1]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Which is so different than the big dollar dinners and all Obama does.

I didn't take it that way. I took it more as a doh! moment by who ever is doing PR. We all know it happens. Usually it is not so out in the open. TY intertubes.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I like how decidedly pro GOP outfits such as Fox or Rasmussen are still having trouble bucking up Romney's #'s. Its like when a candidate releases their own poll showing them tied with their rival. The Fox poll for example has the same electorate that showed up in 2010. While I freely admit if its the same voters for the mid terms as the general election that's good for The Mittster I kinda doubt that's how it plays out.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

I like how decidedly pro GOP outfits such as Fox or Rasmussen are still having trouble bucking up Romney's #'s. Its like when a candidate releases their own poll showing them tied with their rival. The Fox poll for example has the same electorate that showed up in 2010. While I freely admit if its the same voters for the mid terms as the general election that's good for The Mittster I kinda doubt that's how it plays out.

Let's make a thought experiment. A population is divided evenly between two parties. Nobody ever switches their affiliation: once an X always an X. X's only mate with other X's. The offspring of X's are only X's. Finally, assume there are no significant fertility/replacement effects between different groups of X's, so each subsequent voter pool is again evenly split.

In our experiment, elections are won and lost by who comes to the polls. Campaigns aren't run to change people's minds, they are about mustering troops (or if possible driving down the other side's participation). The question for forecasting is no longer a matter of determining voter preference (which is fixed), but of predicting who will actually vote.

This election seems like a fairly close approximation to the experiment. We had 2008 and 2010 elections where one side was good at getting the vote out while the other was not. 2012 looks to be somewhere in the middle. So the question is: does anybody have a good predictor of who will get their people to the polls?

Gallup has an Enthusiasm poll broken down by affiliation. The numbers were very good for the Republicans when that article was written (Q3 2011) but I can't seem to find the updated numbers (rant: they should just link to the raw data for those of us who don't need to be hand-held by the news story, and that way it would also preserve currency end rant).

They also have a Certainty to Vote poll. It would be nice though if there was some proof those metrics actually meant anything.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Stewart hit a home run last night on "mommy gate".

<table style='font:11px arial; color:#333; background-color:#f5f5f5' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='512' height='340'><tbody><tr style='background-color:#e5e5e5' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com'>The Daily Show with Jon Stewart</a></td><td style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; text-align:right; font-weight:bold;'>Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c</td></tr><tr style='height:14px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;' colspan='2'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-april-16-2012/on-her-vagesty-s-secret-service---mitt-needs-moms'>On Her Vagesty's Secret Service & Mitt Needs Moms</a></td></tr><tr style='height:14px; background-color:#353535' valign='middle'><td colspan='2' style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; width:512px; overflow:hidden; text-align:right'><a target='_blank' style='color:#96deff; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/'>www.thedailyshow.com</a></td></tr><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><embed style='display:block' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:412604' width='512' height='288' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' flashvars='autoPlay=false' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' bgcolor='#000000'></embed></td></tr><tr style='height:18px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><table style='margin:0px; text-align:center' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='100%' height='100%'><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com/'>Political Humor & Satire Blog</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.facebook.com/thedailyshow'>The Daily Show on Facebook</a></td></tr></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

<table style='font:11px arial; color:#333; background-color:#f5f5f5' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='512' height='340'><tbody><tr style='background-color:#e5e5e5' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com'>The Daily Show with Jon Stewart</a></td><td style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; text-align:right; font-weight:bold;'>Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c</td></tr><tr style='height:14px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:2px 1px 0px 5px;' colspan='2'><a target='_blank' style='color:#333; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/mon-april-16-2012/the-battle-for-the-war-on-women'>The Battle for the War on Women</a></td></tr><tr style='height:14px; background-color:#353535' valign='middle'><td colspan='2' style='padding:2px 5px 0px 5px; width:512px; overflow:hidden; text-align:right'><a target='_blank' style='color:#96deff; text-decoration:none; font-weight:bold;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/'>www.thedailyshow.com</a></td></tr><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><embed style='display:block' src='http://media.mtvnservices.com/mgid:cms:item:comedycentral.com:412606' width='512' height='288' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' wmode='window' allowFullscreen='true' flashvars='autoPlay=false' allowscriptaccess='always' allownetworking='all' bgcolor='#000000'></embed></td></tr><tr style='height:18px;' valign='middle'><td style='padding:0px;' colspan='2'><table style='margin:0px; text-align:center' cellpadding='0' cellspacing='0' width='100%' height='100%'><tr valign='middle'><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-episodes/'>Daily Show Full Episodes</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.indecisionforever.com/'>Political Humor & Satire Blog</a></td><td style='padding:3px; width:33%;'><a target='_blank' style='font:10px arial; color:#333; text-decoration:none;' href='http://www.facebook.com/thedailyshow'>The Daily Show on Facebook</a></td></tr></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

TDS knocked it out of the park.

On another note...why would a woman ever want to live in Wisconsin? That state seriously hates women. (but they love deer!) I am sure WeWantMore will find a way to defend all the wonderful anti-women legislation that has been introduced/sign as of late though

 

[Carter]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

TDS knocked it out of the park.

On another note...why would a woman ever want to live in Wisconsin? That state seriously hates women. (but they love deer!) I am sure WeWantMore will find a way to defend all the wonderful anti-women legislation that has been introduced/sign as of late though

Hey, some of us are rather fond of women. You're right though, the republican majority apparently hates them quite a bit. And it's only gonna get worse.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Was TDS right? Did Walker sign the bill that basically made it ok for employers to pay women less? (repealing the equal pay law) If so...what the hell can possibly be the justification for that? Better yet, how long until it is found Un-Constitutional even by the SCOTUS that includes Anthony Scalia?

I mean wow...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Was TDS right? Did Walker sign the bill that basically made it ok for employers to pay women less? (repealing the equal pay law) If so...what the hell can possibly be the justification for that? Better yet, how long until it is found Un-Constitutional even by the SCOTUS that includes Anthony Scalia?

I mean wow...

You Cannot Be Serious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Hey, some of us are rather fond of women. You're right though, the republican majority apparently hates them quite a bit. And it's only gonna get worse.

The nomination fight is over, so they will backpedal, particularly since the contraception gambit blew up in their face.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Was TDS right? Did Walker sign the bill that basically made it ok for employers to pay women less? (repealing the equal pay law) If so...what the hell can possibly be the justification for that? Better yet, how long until it is found Un-Constitutional even by the SCOTUS that includes Anthony Scalia?

I mean wow...

Because money is more important to men.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Was TDS right? Did Walker sign the bill that basically made it ok for employers to pay women less? (repealing the equal pay law) If so...what the hell can possibly be the justification for that? Better yet, how long until it is found Un-Constitutional even by the SCOTUS that includes Anthony Scalia?

I mean wow...

He signed the repeal of a bill from a few years ago that made it illegal to pay women differently than men for the same work I believe. Not sure what the political calculus is here, unless Walker doesn't like his job, sees the money Palin is making, and has decided he wants to get recalled so he can cash in on the right wing media circuit.

In other news, I didn't think this was possible, but somebody put forth an idea that will actually make The Mittster's car elevator a positive issue in the upcoming campaign. Its so simple, yet so effective...


All he needs to say is that he's installing the car elevator to make it easier to access the Batmobile! Mitt Romney = Bruce Wayne???

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

You Cannot Be Serious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think Scalia is scum, but even HE has to see the inherent problems.

 

[TimP]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Was TDS right? Did Walker sign the bill that basically made it ok for employers to pay women less? (repealing the equal pay law) If so...what the hell can possibly be the justification for that? Better yet, how long until it is found Un-Constitutional even by the SCOTUS that includes Anthony Scalia?

I mean wow...

He has to do it now before he gets voted out of office. We're coming for you Scotty!

 

[Foxton]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Because money is more important to men.

Men need to have the money so they can support the women and the children they'll be constantly pumping out.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Obviously I don't think Romney has a snowball's chance of coming within sniffing distance of winning the general election. He just doesn't have a strength, Obama's even got him beat "in the case of a terrorist attack", IMO.
But based on very limited exposure (I haven't really been paying attention), I'm impressed with the agility Romney has shown in throwing counterpunches. Obama went after his wife for not having a day job, he was taken down a peg for hating on women. Obama went after him for disrespecting a dog, he was called out for eating dogs. etc.
Other Republican candidates of the last 20 years or so have always stood around and absorbed the charges, whether true or false, for a few weeks before deciding if they wanted to retaliate. This is different. Or else Obama has just picked terrible battles so far.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

Obviously I don't think Romney has a snowball's chance of coming within sniffing distance of winning the general election. He just doesn't have a strength, Obama's even got him beat "in the case of a terrorist attack", IMO.
But based on very limited exposure (I haven't really been paying attention), I'm impressed with the agility Romney has shown in throwing counterpunches. Obama went after his wife for not having a day job, he was taken down a peg for hating on women. Obama went after him for disrespecting a dog, he was called out for eating dogs. etc.
Other Republican candidates of the last 20 years or so have always stood around and absorbed the charges, whether true or false, for a few weeks before deciding if they wanted to retaliate. This is different. Or else Obama has just picked terrible battles so far.

John Kerry didn't respond to the Swift Boat attacks until it was too late. It goes both ways.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2012 Elections - Fear is the mind killer. Fear is the little death....

John Kerry didn't respond to the Swift Boat attacks until it was too late. It goes both ways.

Do you mean that national campaigns in general have learned to respond quickly to attacks large and small? It could be that. They seem to be career campaigners working for them, and this is the age of Twitter so it would make sense.

anyway the point was, I'm kind of looking for how Romney will respond to Barack's "I wasn't born with a silver spoon in my mouth."