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2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

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Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

If we win out:

1.....Boston University........29
2.....Ferris State.............27
3.....Minnesota-Duluth.........27
4.....Michigan.................26
5.....Boston College...........26
6.....Maine....................23
7.....Massachusetts-Lowell.....23
8.....Union....................22
9.....Minnesota................21
10.....Michigan State...........20
11.....Denver...................20
12.....Ohio State...............18
13.....North Dakota.............17
14.....Northern Michigan........16
15.....Cornell..................15
16.....Notre Dame...............14
17.....Merrimack................12
18.....Colorado College.........12
19.....Western Michigan.........12
20.....Colgate..................9
21.....Miami....................9
22.....Bemidji State............8
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

What were the assumptions behind that? Highest RPI teams win all games?

Also, what did the TUC cut-line look like? I can only guess that these scenarios have SCSU dropping out, otherwise MN certainly nets more than one paltry comparison with a 6-0 record down the stretch (there's a half dozen teams holding comparisons with MN right now that can be flipped if MN catches them in RPI - and all are within ~0.01 with most much closer than that).
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

So, the highest they can get is 9th? And they have to win out? Is that win the Final Five as well? Wow.

And everyone ripped me when I was going nuts about non-conference games. They're still leading the WCHA and they can drop out of the playoff picture entirely by playing .500 hockey which they've been doing for 21 straight games.

Scary.
 
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Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Scooby, as usual you are overreacting:
- dx's scenarios are not gospel and have hidden assumptions built into them (as I mentioned in my previous post)
- they do *not* account for the playoffs; they only deal with the remainder of the regular season
- if you have watched the pairwise lately, you should know how volatile it is; MN can certainly finish with more than 21 comparisons; by losing twice this weekend, they fell *six* spots. Logically it follows that by sweeping, they can move up in a similarly dramatic fashion, particularly since four of the remaining six games are against TUCs.

In other words, lighten up, Francis.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

How do you guys calculate PWR assuming you win out? I am curious what CC's looks like at this point. My guess is that we'd have to win the Final Five (ha) to have a prayer of getting in, but I'd like to see what it looks like, assuming whatever for the teams above us.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Assumptions:
1. Highest RPI team wins (proven so far about 75%-80% correct)
2. These are at the end of the regular season

The highest they can get with basically all the teams ahead of them winning is 9th. Throw in a few upsets among those teams and we could probably hit a high #2 seed or even a low #1 seed.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

1.....Boston University..........0.5760
2.....Ferris State...............0.5705
3.....Michigan...................0.5682
4.....Boston College.............0.5677
5.....Maine......................0.5612
6.....Minnesota-Duluth...........0.5593
7.....Massachusetts-Lowell.......0.5582
8.....Michigan State.............0.5553
9.....Minnesota..................0.5545
10.....Union......................0.5517
11.....Denver.....................0.5492
12.....Ohio State.................0.5448
13.....North Dakota...............0.5424
14.....Northern Michigan..........0.5400
15.....Cornell....................0.5350
16.....Merrimack..................0.5335
17.....Notre Dame.................0.5331
18.....Colorado College...........0.5305
19.....Western Michigan...........0.5296
20.....Colgate....................0.5269
21.....Bemidji State..............0.5210
22.....Miami......................0.5207
23.....Lake Superior..............0.5205
24.....Air Force..................0.5205
25.....New Hampshire..............0.5179
26.....RIT........................0.5151
27.....Harvard....................0.5145
28.....Quinnipiac.................0.5127
29.....St. Cloud State............0.5107
30.....Northeastern...............0.5097
31.....Alaska.....................0.4941
32.....Nebraska-Omaha.............0.4888
33.....Niagara....................0.4864
34.....Mercyhurst.................0.4849
35.....Holy Cross.................0.4842
36.....Providence.................0.4829
37.....Massachusetts..............0.4817
38.....Dartmouth..................0.4814
39.....Wisconsin..................0.4801
40.....Connecticut................0.4770
41.....Michigan Tech..............0.4738
42.....Clarkson...................0.4721
43.....Princeton..................0.4693
44.....Robert Morris..............0.4674
45.....Bowling Green..............0.4674
46.....St. Lawrence...............0.4670
47.....Yale.......................0.4666
48.....Minnesota State............0.4571
49.....Bentley....................0.4492
50.....Brown......................0.4419
51.....Rensselaer.................0.4400
52.....Vermont....................0.4334
53.....Alaska-Anchorage...........0.4322
54.....Canisius...................0.4298
55.....Army.......................0.4297
56.....Alabama-Huntsville.........0.3986
57.....American International.....0.3818
58.....Sacred Heart...............0.3661
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Bakunin said:
Scooby, as usual you are overreacting:
- dx's scenarios are not gospel and have hidden assumptions built into them (as I mentioned in my previous post)
- they do *not* account for the playoffs; they only deal with the remainder of the regular season
- if you have watched the pairwise lately, you should know how volatile it is; MN can certainly finish with more than 21 comparisons; by losing twice this weekend, they fell *six* spots. Logically it follows that by sweeping, they can move up in a similarly dramatic fashion, particularly since four of the remaining six games are against TUCs.

In other words, lighten up, Francis.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. I think I've accepted for now that this is a .500 club. Which is pretty much what they've been the last four years. Hopefully they're just good enough to make the Final Five and the NCAA's this year, there's still hope.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Realistically I would put MN somewhere in the 10th-13th range at season's end. While they can run the table, I don't see it happening. 4-2 is a far more likely scenario, and that would leave them roughly where they are now - or perhaps a spot or two better. Then they'll need to win their first round series to make the dance (probably).
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Bakunin said:
Realistically I would put MN somewhere in the 10th-13th range at season's end. While they can run the table, I don't see it happening. 4-2 is a far more likely scenario, and that would leave them roughly where they are now - or perhaps a spot or two better. Then they'll need to win their first round series to make the dance (probably).
Click to expand...
This coming weekend, the RED HOT BSU Beavers come to town.... The way the Beavers are playing lately we are looking at at least a split for BSU. Now I have not heard about the injuries sustained by UMD this weekend, but the only way that Gophers win the regular season is if the Dawgs get real unhealthy real quick.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

I'm not conceding anything to Bemidji. They are below .500 in league play for ****'s sake and are 2-6-2 on the road against the league. CC, DU, and Duluth swept them at home. Given that they are the three teams right behind MN in the standings, I would expect the Gophers to do likewise.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Simple Truths: The sun rises in the east, taxes are due April 15th, I never get tired of Law & Order reruns, & the Gophers leave DU with their tails between their legs.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Bakunin said:
Come on, at least show some sense of perspective. UMD looked like **** last year at the F5, and then proceeded to rattle off four straight and win the title. Consistency or lack thereof entering the tournament is not necessarily a reliable indicator of what a team will do in the NCAA's. If you had asked any WCHA fan who they'd put money on to win a title last season, the vast majority of it would probably have been bet on UND.

Four of six at home - I'd say it's still right there waiting for them to grab it, particularly with a 1pt lead over Duluth and 2pt lead over DU. As for the NCAA, they get to play in St. Paul should they make it - and I'll take my chances there against anyone. There are no juggernauts this season. Every team has shown weakness. There is no '93 Maine squad waiting to decimate everyone in the NCAA's; there's just a lot of pretty good to okay teams in the field, all of whom can fall flat and get bounced, regardless of seeding.
Click to expand...

I agree with this assessment. tUMD looked shaky at the close of the regular season last season and I did not expect a natty championship, but you never know. And the Bulldogs are reeling again just as the Gophers are...hopefully they can pull it together come playoff time.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Greyeagle said:
Simple Truths: The sun rises in the east, taxes are due April 15th, I never get tired of Law & Order reruns, & the Gophers leave DU with their tails between their legs.
Click to expand...
Still doesn't make it any easier to accept. I was feeling rather Scooby-esque last night after that loss.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

GopherBigGuy911 said:
This coming weekend, the RED HOT BSU Beavers come to town.... The way the Beavers are playing lately we are looking at at least a split for BSU. Now I have not heard about the injuries sustained by UMD this weekend, but the only way that Gophers win the regular season is if the Dawgs get real unhealthy real quick.
Click to expand...

Dogs are irrelevant. At this rate Denver will win the league.
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

This quite possibly could be the first team to SOMEHOW win the regular season title, yet miss the NCAA
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

Koho said:
Still doesn't make it any easier to accept. I was feeling rather Scooby-esque last night after that loss.
Click to expand...

Although, as usual, I read a few Scooby-posts and feel less pessimistic in comparison. Thanks Scoobs.

By the way, the odds of the Gophs winning the NCAA is high this year. There is a decent chance I will be somewhere where it will be impossible to watch the frozen four this year, so that increases their odds of winning it to deny me that experience. IF it comes true, I expect thank you notes (with money would be nice) from all of you!
 
Re: 2011-12 Minnesota Season Thread (Pride On Ice Returns!)

GopherBigGuy911 said:
This quite possibly could be the first team to SOMEHOW win the regular season title, yet miss the NCAA
Click to expand...
CC has already done that over a decade ago. Granted the field was smaller, and the process was far more less transparent than it is now.
 
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