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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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In Hovey world, the body count following a school shooting is the fault of the teachers who didn’t throw their bodies in front of the children fast enough. Certainly not the fault of the right wing nut job with 3 AR-15s and a backpack load of ammo.

Did the Democrats make some bad choices on the stimulus? Definitely. But the only reason they were put in a position of having to make a decision in the first place was the GOP acting exactly like terrorists. During 2020, the GOP controlled the senate, the Presidency, and SCOTUS. Exactly zero percent of the pain people are feeling right now is the fault of the Democrats. Period.
 
SJHovey said:
The second stimulus package started getting discussed when, within about a week of the rollout of the first package? The $600 figure was already getting kicked around last summer.

I came onto this Board and said the smart play would be to take the money. Unlike a union contract where reaching an agreement means you can't come back and renegotiate for a couple of years, or reaching a settlement in your insurance claim, taking the second package when offered in no way restricted anyone from coming back the next day and demanding a third round.

But, of course, my suggestion was met with universal derision here. So what happened? The D's let everyone sit on a food line for four months, then took the same deal, and now the third stimulus package likely doesn't hit until sometime in the middle of 2021.

But I'm sure our own Dean of Negotiations will be along shortly to explain the brilliance of that move.
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Mitch McConnell singlehandedly killed every goddammed stimulus bill all summer and fall while crying about offering "targeted" relief.

Fu** you, fu** your feelings, fu** your conservatism. And fu** the GOP.
 
Handyman said:
Is this your attempt to be witty? Go back to telling us how PPP wasnt a complete cluster[bleep] your Rover impression is much better than your bad attempts at snark.

I had zero issue with them holding out or taking the crap deal but they needed to stick to their guns. I was on record when the bipartisan deal leaked a few weeks ago that if they took it they look like weak willed fools. If you hold out you better get something worth fighting for or you lost. We see it all the time when athletes hold out and get burned on the contract. You were even part of the discussion. Though to be fair that deal was worse than this one. (that had no stimulus checks)

Of course you are being completely naive to pretend that further deals would have come after the ones floated this summer or in October. First of all it wasn't going to pass anyways because McConnell was completely against anything even Trump sponsored bills. By the summer the GOP was pretty much trying to wipe their hands of all of this and you know it. They were in full on "open everything up the virus is over" mode. I dont remember the particulars of what was floated back then but I know almost no one was happy. By the time October hit and Trump reversed course for about the 10th time on it there was no going back. If you are going to assume this is your one shot you don't take the table scraps being offered just to get you to leave the table.

Both sides gambled and lost big. The Dems assumed they would take the Senate if people saw the GOP was basically negotiating in bad faith. (which they didn't...yet) The GOP assumed that since summer saw the numbers die down that the worst was over and they could say anything and do anything and not get punished for it. Trump lost because of it and the Senate is still in jeopardy.

The real issue we should all have is why are we doing it this way in the first place? It would have been cheaper and easier to just pay everyone to stay home. No crappy PPP, no random stimulus checks, no infighting. But one party couldn't do that because they would then have to admit they had been lying for months about the severity of the disease and the other would have to take the gun out of their hand long enough to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. We are so bass ackwards we do everything the least efficient and helpful way you can.
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You make some good points. McConnell was on the record saying he opposed the 1.8 trillion stimulus package. If Democrats pull off a couple wins in January, 900 billion can be the starting point for the next one...for how much state and local governments receive. Let the wonks figure out how that fits into budget reconciliation. Manchin will get on board.
 
Latest 538 for GA.

tl; dr: close AF.

Ossoff -0.5
Warnock +0.6




Hopefully the Nazis will cut off their nose to spite their face.
 
Kepler said:
Latest 538 for GA.

tl; dr: close AF.

Ossoff -0.5
Warnock +0.6




Hopefully the Nazis will cut off their nose to spite their face.
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I honestly don't think 538 is a good source for this situation. I don't trust any of the polling out of there and even if I did the "Trumper Factor" throws a monkey wrench into any sort of real math which 538 kind of pointed out in their writeup before the Election. Except in this case the "Cult of Personality" that doesn't show up in the polling could swing this either way. In the General you knew it was going to vote Trump. (and it did) Now they might screw the GOP or help them...no one seems to have a clue.

I will honestly be more interested in how 538 writes it up after the fact because it could be quite fascinating.
 
Handyman said:
I honestly don't think 538 is a good source for this situation. I don't trust any of the polling out of there and even if I did the "Trumper Factor" throws a monkey wrench into any sort of real math which 538 kind of pointed out in their writeup before the Election. Except in this case the "Cult of Personality" that doesn't show up in the polling could swing this either way. In the General you knew it was going to vote Trump. (and it did) Now they might screw the GOP or help them...no one seems to have a clue.

I will honestly be more interested in how 538 writes it up after the fact because it could be quite fascinating.
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Well, as of course you know, that's not so much 538 as polling in general. All Nate is doing is aggregating based on prior poll bias, both accidental in the case of the reputable pollsters and deliberate in the case of the propagandist organizations like Rasmussen which solely exist to manufacture "evidence" for a partisan narrative.

I agree that with the Dumpies we really don't know. They're so emotional and so stupid there is no way to know if they will vote, pout, or go on a murder spree.
 
Handyman said:
I honestly don't think 538 is a good source for this situation. I don't trust any of the polling out of there and even if I did the "Trumper Factor" throws a monkey wrench into any sort of real math which 538 kind of pointed out in their writeup before the Election. Except in this case the "Cult of Personality" that doesn't show up in the polling could swing this either way. In the General you knew it was going to vote Trump. (and it did) Now they might screw the GOP or help them...no one seems to have a clue.

I will honestly be more interested in how 538 writes it up after the fact because it could be quite fascinating.
Click to expand...

Take 538 and average them with trafalgar
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Take 538 and average them with trafalgar
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Trafalgar is a joke.

They are riding the same effect Rasmussen had in 2004: a one-time blind lucky strike. Rasmussen has sucked since then and Trafalgar will suck in every other election.

If you are a bias site and your candidate wildly overperforms in one election you look great, but you're not great, you still suck. Rasmussen is always R+4 so they caught lightning in a bottle once and since then they have been the worst of the majors since R's routinely underperform their ridiculous predictions. Trafalgar is even worse since in Ras's case it's a methodological artifact (albeit an intentional one) whereas in T's case it's just horsepoop all the way down.
 
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