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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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2022 Senate flip chances, cuz LOLITNEVERENDS.

While 20 of 33 seats up are R, it's even as far as vulnerable seats go (either 5/5 or 6 R 4 D depending on the GA special election).

Code: 
AK R Murkowski
AZ D Kelly
CO D Bennet
FL R Rubio
GA ? 2020 special election winner
NV D Masto
NH D Hassan
NC R open (Burr retiring)
PA R open (Toomey retiring)
WI R Johnson

Dems will need 2 or 1 or GOP will need 1 to flip chamber.
 
Last edited:
Kepler said:
2022 Senate flip chances, cuz LOLITNEVERENDS.

While 20 of 33 seats up are R, it's even as far as vulnerable seats go (either 5/5 or 6 R 4 D depending on the GA special election).

Code: 
AK R Murkowski
AZ D Kelly
CO D Bennet
FL R Rubio
GA ? 2020 special election winner
NV D Masto
NH D Hassan
NC R open (Burr retiring)
PA R open (Toomey retiring)
WI R Johnson

Dems will need 2 or 1 or GOP will need 1 to flip chamber.
Click to expand...

Ds flip WI, PA. Possibly NC. Rs flip GA if we get it. NH isn’t safe, but I don’t think it’s a tossup.
 
Yeah considering Abrams has already raised over $6 million I would say all of these shenanigans arent doing anything to slow down the Dem base...
 
So I'd been out of town much of the last week. I hadn't realized that IA-2 (Iowa City and SE quarter of the state) had flipped back to the Ds in the interim.

This is a race for an open seat after Loebsack (D) retired. Tuesday night the R candidate had a roughly 250 vote lead. The D candidate currently leads by about 150 votes. Out of 400,000 cast.

Turns out it was either a counting or reporting error that caused it.

"After all counties had reported their results, Miller-Meeks was ahead by 282 votes. But Friday morning, the results updated after the Jasper County Auditor’s Office reported a single precinct had overcounted: The Clear Creek-Poweshiek precinct had reported nearly double the actual 400 ballots cast there for Miller-Meeks.

"Thursday, I started looking at the report and thought, 'Oh boy,'" Deputy Auditor Tina Mulgrew said Monday."

The official canvass happens Tuesday. Then there will assuredly be a district-wide recount.
 
Last edited:
Kepler said:
2022 Senate flip chances, cuz LOLITNEVERENDS.

While 20 of 33 seats up are R, it's even as far as vulnerable seats go (either 5/5 or 6 R 4 D depending on the GA special election).

Code: 
AK R Murkowski
AZ D Kelly
CO D Bennet
FL R Rubio
GA ? 2020 special election winner
NV D Masto
NH D Hassan
NC R open (Burr retiring)
PA R open (Toomey retiring)
WI R Johnson

Dems will need 2 or 1 or GOP will need 1 to flip chamber.
Click to expand...

Those may all be potential flips, but they aren't all tossups. I'd call CO, FL, NV as likely safe; AK, AZ, NH, as lean safe; GA, NC, WI as tossups; PA as lean flip as of today. Obviously that will change depending on the political environment in 2 years.
 
unofan said:
Those may all be potential flips, but they aren't all tossups. I'd call CO, FL, NV as likely safe; AK, AZ, NH, as lean safe; GA, NC, WI as tossups; PA as lean flip as of today. Obviously that will change depending on the political environment in 2 years.
Click to expand...
Alaska is dependent on how Ballot Measure 2 does, if it passes and we get a jungle primary with a Top 4 RCV runoff it's hard to tell what happens. If it doesn't and we potentially get a primary race between Sarah Palin and Murkowski I predict a three way race where a Democrat could win somewhat easily.
 
So can the Politico reporter who doesnt even call it out. Even in a tweet after the fact they treat it like a legit opinion. Fcuk Politico.
 
The R candidate in IA-2 has pulled back ahead by 47 votes after another precinct found an error. This time, the precinct initially reported the results from a pre-election test rather than its actual count. The actual count flipped about 200 votes from D to R.

A full recount is expected regardless.
 
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