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116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er

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Kentucky is not including any absentee ballots in any of its results. The results are for in-person voting only.
 
Kepler said:
Oh. Wow, I don't know whether that's good or not. :-)
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Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
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I heard an interesting theory that Booker is big in Louisville but McGrath is big in Lexington. I assume because Louisville is poorer (rich Dems are socially liberal, poor Dems are across the board liberal).

But I'm not in KY and it's a very different world from VA.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Some social media posts have said it could help McGrath because early voting has been open for a long time, and Booker didn’t really make his name known until the protests. Still, I can’t imagine that many people voted nearly a month earlier.
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Purely anecdotal but when I lived in OR (mail-in only) I would vote the first day of the period so I could stop worrying about it.

Then again I always did homework the day it was assigned for the same reason (I am anxiety-averse) and my casual understanding is not everybody does that.
 
Hard to say who is ahead right now in Kentucky. There’s never been this many absentee ballots before, so it’s hard to say who took advantage of it. I’d lean towards McGrath for a number of reasons. Booker is big in Louisville because he’s from there and that’s where the majority of the African-American population lives in Kentucky. His campaign said he’ll win by a few points if the majority of the absentee ballots are from the Louisville area. From what I have read, election officials expect 90% of the 868,000 absentee ballots to be returned on time (they had something like 530,000 returned as of Tuesday- as long as they’re postmarked by Tuesday, they’re counted). Only 170,000 or so of those were from Jefferson County (Louisville). Again, hard to say how this will turn out. I will say I’m shocked at the counties Booker is ahead in for in-person voting, although, for obvious reasons, it’s a much smaller sample size than normal.
 
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Kepler said:
Assuming Jones (AL) loses, we need +4 with the Prez. Where we at?

AZ: looks good.
CO: looks good.
GA regular: looks like a stretch.
GA special: I can't find any polling at all.
ME: looks confused.
NC: looks possible.
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I think for the GA special election, it will almost certainly go to a runoff in early January 2021 (unless someone gets 50% + 1). That's probably why there hasn't been a whole lot of polling.

Arizona and Colorado look like they are on the right track. That means we need to pick up 2 out of: Iowa, Maine, Montana, and/or North Carolina. My guess is if we win one of the Georgias, we take 3+ out of the previous group.

As you assumed, there is no chance Jones wins. So, we are looking at anywhere from 48-53 seats. 2022 is also Democrat-friendly in the Senate. :)
 
So... worst Susan Collins vote - confirming Kavanaugh or acquitting Chump? Seems both a biting her in the arse right now, deservedly so. No comment yet about justice brewski's vote in the abortion case.
 
Rover said:
So... worst Susan Collins vote - confirming Kavanaugh or acquitting Chump? Seems both a biting her in the arse right now, deservedly so. No comment yet about justice brewski's vote in the abortion case.
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It is pretty entertaining that she talked to Justice Brewski and said he was the man on precedence for abortion. Then we come to the abortion case and it's Roberts who saves it on precedence and good old Brewski goes the other way like precedence never existed.

I'd say both are nails in her coffin.
 
It looks like McGrath will just escape an upset by Booker.

WaPo estimating that 93% of the votes are in and she has a 10k vote lead 235k to 225k. Based on those numbers, there are around 34.6k votes left, so Booker would have to take about 65% of the remaining vote and all the precincts left appear to be in McGrath favored counties.
 
AP called the race for McGrath. Booker led all morning, but the late votes in the rural counties swung it to McGrath. What an awesome race to be apart of. Record turnout with the Democratic presidential primary already decided.
 
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