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116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
- Thread starter dxmnkd316
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Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
Put yourself in the position of a Republican Senator for a moment. Now, yes, you are craven and vicious and quite like not very bright, however, what do you do now? You are clearly on the wrong side of history. The fever will break someday and if you vote to shut down witnesses and give Dump his sham acquittal you will become an unsavory joke:
<img src="https://i1.wp.com/blogforarizona.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/baghdad-bob.jpg?fit=444%2C331&ssl=1" height=200>
Fig. 1 Mitch McConnell in an unguarded moment
Put yourself in the position of a Republican Senator for a moment. Now, yes, you are craven and vicious and quite like not very bright, however, what do you do now? You are clearly on the wrong side of history. The fever will break someday and if you vote to shut down witnesses and give Dump his sham acquittal you will become an unsavory joke:
<img src="https://i1.wp.com/blogforarizona.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/baghdad-bob.jpg?fit=444%2C331&ssl=1" height=200>
Fig. 1 Mitch McConnell in an unguarded moment
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Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
You know, I don't think they're considering history. Its a cult. What other people think doesn't matter. At this point its all about maintaining their Senate majority.
However, as I've said before if Itch had any good cards to play he'd have played them already. This Bolton thing is a disaster. Blow it off and go for a quick acquittal only for his book to come out a month later or have Bolton testify about Chump's treason. This from a media savvy guy who's conservative nutter bona fides are beyond reproach.
Either way Gardner, Collins and McSally are in a bad position. Itch has to let Gardner and Collins vote in favor of hearing from Bolton, but he can't let Bolton testify or he loses all control of the situation to the point that even his friends in the national media won't be able to spin their coverage in his favor.
The full effect on impeachment isn't on Trump's approval ratings (which have a definite floor and ceiling) nor how close he gets to conviction (I'd be surprised if anybody votes in favor on the GOP side). Its if you start seeing the Ernst and Tillis races tightening as we get further into impeachment and its aftermath. Republicans can survive losing 3 Senate seats in Nov. They can't survive losing too much more than that to stay in the majority.
You know, I don't think they're considering history. Its a cult. What other people think doesn't matter. At this point its all about maintaining their Senate majority.
However, as I've said before if Itch had any good cards to play he'd have played them already. This Bolton thing is a disaster. Blow it off and go for a quick acquittal only for his book to come out a month later or have Bolton testify about Chump's treason. This from a media savvy guy who's conservative nutter bona fides are beyond reproach.
Either way Gardner, Collins and McSally are in a bad position. Itch has to let Gardner and Collins vote in favor of hearing from Bolton, but he can't let Bolton testify or he loses all control of the situation to the point that even his friends in the national media won't be able to spin their coverage in his favor.
The full effect on impeachment isn't on Trump's approval ratings (which have a definite floor and ceiling) nor how close he gets to conviction (I'd be surprised if anybody votes in favor on the GOP side). Its if you start seeing the Ernst and Tillis races tightening as we get further into impeachment and its aftermath. Republicans can survive losing 3 Senate seats in Nov. They can't survive losing too much more than that to stay in the majority.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
If the fever breaks, you retire before you get slaughtered in an election. I don't think it will anytime soon
If the fever breaks, you retire before you get slaughtered in an election. I don't think it will anytime soon
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
Fair point. There will always be a "think" tank, or the Republican Rubber Chicken Victimhood Tour of radio and Fox. There will always be a payday.
Fair point. There will always be a "think" tank, or the Republican Rubber Chicken Victimhood Tour of radio and Fox. There will always be a payday.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
All excellent points.
We need 5 because AL is a loss. So: Gardner, Collins, McSally should be pick ups. Ernst and Tillis are the only other possibilities? Do we really need to sweep 3 toss-ups? I guess they aren't independent trials so there's that, but it still looks like long odds. Any chance with Perdue? I assume if we get Cornyn in a bind it's over anyway. Likewise if any other D gets into trouble we're f-cked.
All excellent points.
We need 5 because AL is a loss. So: Gardner, Collins, McSally should be pick ups. Ernst and Tillis are the only other possibilities? Do we really need to sweep 3 toss-ups? I guess they aren't independent trials so there's that, but it still looks like long odds. Any chance with Perdue? I assume if we get Cornyn in a bind it's over anyway. Likewise if any other D gets into trouble we're f-cked.
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bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
I'd like Georgia a lot more if the state wasn't hard at work purging voter rolls
I'd like Georgia a lot more if the state wasn't hard at work purging voter rolls
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
You need 4 seats. In order 1) Gardner (he's fuked), 2) McSally (really needs Chump to have a solid win), and 3) Collins. Need either Ernst or Tillis to offset Doug Jones expected loss in Alabama. That puts Senate at 50/50 so win Presidency and you have the majority. Frankly that's not bad to have a shot at 5 seats.
As far as Georgia goes I'd look at the open seat (interim Senator). Gov appointed a big donor instead of a long term cult member. She might be primaried by nutball Doug Collins (Georgia's answer to Jim Jordan) so that would certainly help things.
You need 4 seats. In order 1) Gardner (he's fuked), 2) McSally (really needs Chump to have a solid win), and 3) Collins. Need either Ernst or Tillis to offset Doug Jones expected loss in Alabama. That puts Senate at 50/50 so win Presidency and you have the majority. Frankly that's not bad to have a shot at 5 seats.
As far as Georgia goes I'd look at the open seat (interim Senator). Gov appointed a big donor instead of a long term cult member. She might be primaried by nutball Doug Collins (Georgia's answer to Jim Jordan) so that would certainly help things.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
Ah, 3 net. I am an idiot. Thanks.
So, figure:
.95 CO
.75 ME
.70 AZ
-------
.50 IO
.50 NC
.30 GA
Run the top three (odds: 49.9%) and then pick off one of the bottom three. Figure the odds of a successful combination are about 33%. However, the trials are not independent (all politics is national) so the odds may be significantly higher.
Ah, 3 net. I am an idiot. Thanks.
So, figure:
.95 CO
.75 ME
.70 AZ
-------
.50 IO
.50 NC
.30 GA
Run the top three (odds: 49.9%) and then pick off one of the bottom three. Figure the odds of a successful combination are about 33%. However, the trials are not independent (all politics is national) so the odds may be significantly higher.
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mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times
except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
True, although maybe less so, now. Manchin is a problem, but I'm not sure there's anybody else who will go off the reservation on a whipped vote.
I would not be shocked if Manchin switches parties at some point. He has that sort of vibe to him, and WV is Mordor.
And just like that...
except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times
True, although maybe less so, now. Manchin is a problem, but I'm not sure there's anybody else who will go off the reservation on a whipped vote.
I would not be shocked if Manchin switches parties at some point. He has that sort of vibe to him, and WV is Mordor.
And just like that...
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Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
I did get a kick out the sarcastic headlines after Idiot Scott Brown was elected in Mass: "Republicans take Senate: 41-59"
except of course a R simple majority is a majority. even a D healthy majority is hit or miss at times
I did get a kick out the sarcastic headlines after Idiot Scott Brown was elected in Mass: "Republicans take Senate: 41-59"
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
I expect Manchin to vote for witnesses but not to vote to convict. We know Trumps not going to be convicted.
I expect Manchin to vote for witnesses but not to vote to convict. We know Trumps not going to be convicted.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
So after much agonizing reappraisal I've dropped my support for abolishing the Senate in favor of adjusting the states to be more even in population. Break up the largest states; combine the smallest states. I like the idea of federated government. I think there’s a place for both a House and Senate. I like the idea of cyclical 6 year terms that don’t all come due together to mitigate a wildcard like Dump.
33 states are between 12M and 2M.
Here then is my plan:
Divide CA (40M) into 4 (+3)
Divide TX (29M) into 3 (+2)
Divide FL (22M) into 3 (+2)
Divide NY (19M) into 3 (+2)
Add PR (+1)
Combine: WY (.6), ND (.7), SD (.9), MT (1.1), ID (1.8) (-4)
Combine: VT (.6), ME (1.3), NH (1.4) (-2)
Combine: AK (.7) and HI (1.4) (-1)
Combine: DE (1), DC (.7), and MD (-1)
Combine: RI (1.1) and CT (-1)
Combine: WV (1.8) and VA (-1)
So after much agonizing reappraisal I've dropped my support for abolishing the Senate in favor of adjusting the states to be more even in population. Break up the largest states; combine the smallest states. I like the idea of federated government. I think there’s a place for both a House and Senate. I like the idea of cyclical 6 year terms that don’t all come due together to mitigate a wildcard like Dump.
33 states are between 12M and 2M.
Here then is my plan:
Divide CA (40M) into 4 (+3)
Divide TX (29M) into 3 (+2)
Divide FL (22M) into 3 (+2)
Divide NY (19M) into 3 (+2)
Add PR (+1)
Combine: WY (.6), ND (.7), SD (.9), MT (1.1), ID (1.8) (-4)
Combine: VT (.6), ME (1.3), NH (1.4) (-2)
Combine: AK (.7) and HI (1.4) (-1)
Combine: DE (1), DC (.7), and MD (-1)
Combine: RI (1.1) and CT (-1)
Combine: WV (1.8) and VA (-1)
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is notable: GOP Senators up in ‘20 are telling colleagues that impeachment is hurting their chances of being re-elected, and they want to shut down the trial to save themselves. <a href="https://t.co/SJrkrgMf9s">https://t.co/SJrkrgMf9s</a></p>— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1222520968293339136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 29, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is notable: GOP Senators up in ‘20 are telling colleagues that impeachment is hurting their chances of being re-elected, and they want to shut down the trial to save themselves. <a href="https://t.co/SJrkrgMf9s">https://t.co/SJrkrgMf9s</a></p>— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) <a href="https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/1222520968293339136?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 29, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
McSally is already toast, having been appointed after being defeated in the 2018 cycle, plus there's enough material out there of her acting like a b*tchy, unlikable, suburban conservative. Once she votes against witnesses and then to acquit, she's done.
McSally is already toast, having been appointed after being defeated in the 2018 cycle, plus there's enough material out there of her acting like a b*tchy, unlikable, suburban conservative. Once she votes against witnesses and then to acquit, she's done.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
I hope so. Scottsdale, Peoria, and Glendale are hotbeds of social rest, like Orange County in the old days. There's infinite support and money for any (R). I don't know if Tempe, Old Town, and Flagstaff are enough to overcome both that and the seething Arpaio part of the state.
I hope so. Scottsdale, Peoria, and Glendale are hotbeds of social rest, like Orange County in the old days. There's infinite support and money for any (R). I don't know if Tempe, Old Town, and Flagstaff are enough to overcome both that and the seething Arpaio part of the state.
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Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
She did just lose 2 years ago...
She did just lose 2 years ago...
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
In a midterm where we had a wave. The general is a different deal.
The brown portions of the state are growing, though, so unless the Republicans are able to pass a law counting POC as 3/5ths of a white vote, we comin' rougher every time.
In a midterm where we had a wave. The general is a different deal.
The brown portions of the state are growing, though, so unless the Republicans are able to pass a law counting POC as 3/5ths of a white vote, we comin' rougher every time.
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Re: 116th Congress - Episode 3: Impeach the Motherf**er
You know I think 2018 was different. Most "wave" mid term elections are because one side sat out while the other side was engaged. Not the case in 2018 where Chump's supporters were fully engaged. Yet they still lost across the country from Pennsylvania to Arizona and everywhere in between with a few notable exceptions (Ohio, Florida) where the fact that his supporters were engaged helped the KKK win those races. If McSally couldn't win in 2018, I'm not sure her prospects are much better in 2020 unless Chump kills it in his re-election (I think Scooby has him winning all 50 states ).
You know I think 2018 was different. Most "wave" mid term elections are because one side sat out while the other side was engaged. Not the case in 2018 where Chump's supporters were fully engaged. Yet they still lost across the country from Pennsylvania to Arizona and everywhere in between with a few notable exceptions (Ohio, Florida) where the fact that his supporters were engaged helped the KKK win those races. If McSally couldn't win in 2018, I'm not sure her prospects are much better in 2020 unless Chump kills it in his re-election (I think Scooby has him winning all 50 states
).- Status