116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

[St. Clown]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Same as everywhere else, then. The educated vote blue, the uneducated vote red, but there are a lot of uneducated.

Here's the thing - most of MN's 2 district is second-ring suburb, and he lost it last year as the incumbent. I think most of the second-ringers will steer slightly away from him in 2020, and there simply aren't enough rural people for him to win the state. It'll be a close race, but Tina Smith (appointed replacement for Stuart Smalley) should win.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Lewis is a fool to try...he could sweep his old district and still get destroyed. Since he wont he will lose by 8 or 9 and Smith won't sweat.

 

[Rover]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Nice map for 2020.

Not many paths to 50 D with a Dem VP.

I assume we give back AL unless the pedo runs again. So we start at 46.

CO should be good for us. 47.

ME is essential. 48.

2 more on that map?

Lets' hope for the pedo. 49.

NC or GA with Harris on the ticket?

Jesus, flyover is literally killing this country.

47 + AZ + ME + CO - AL means we need one more out of NC/IA/GA.

Regarding recruiting I'll note that the best challenger isn't necessarily a sitting politician. Back when Scottie Brown was representing Mass the entire state delegation were lightweights and low rent hacks who would have lost easily to him even in a Presidential year. Suddenly Lizzy Warren showed up and Brown was a dead man walking.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

47 + AZ + ME + CO - AL means we need one more out of NC/IA/GA.

Regarding recruiting I'll note that the best challenger isn't necessarily a sitting politician. Back when Scottie Brown was representing Mass the entire state delegation were lightweights and low rent hacks who would have lost easily to him even in a Presidential year. Suddenly Lizzy Warren showed up and Brown was a dead man walking.

Yeah but where does AZ come from? Giffords husband is awful. I've never heard of the other ones.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Yeah but where does AZ come from? Giffords husband is awful. I've never heard of the other ones.

You’re gonna bet against an Astronaut?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

You’re gonna bet against an Astronaut?

He's an as-shole and he has one helluva past which is an open secret inside the Beltway. He'd better get destroyed in the primary.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

He's an as-shole and he has one helluva past which is an open secret inside the Beltway. He'd better get destroyed in the primary.

If he can win the seat I don’t really care what he does, as long as he’s not of the women beating or child molestation variety.

 

[Rover]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Yeah but where does AZ come from? Giffords husband is awful. I've never heard of the other ones.

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/21/ma...ld-arizona-soon-have-two-democratic-senators/

I don't care if Mark Kelly has been having an affair with a hamster. McSally is a Chump toady who's voted with him every time.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

https://www.salon.com/2019/08/21/ma...ld-arizona-soon-have-two-democratic-senators/

I don't care if Mark Kelly has been having an affair with a hamster. McSally is a Chump toady who's voted with him every time.

Obviously we have to get rid of McSally. The question is, how to do it.

Hopefully she's sufficiently poison. I don't know how clearly the AZ voters have to say "we're not interested" before Ducey gets the idea.

Phoenix and Tucson continue to grow and AZ as a whole is attracting smarter people. The future is blue like NM but it's going to take time to get there. And of course AZ Republicans will also employ the same unethical-verging-on-criminal suppression techniques the rest of the Nazisphere does to steal elections.

By CAP projections, AZ will have lost 4.0% off the white component of the electorate from 2016 to 2020. Dump won in 2016 by 3.6%.

It should be in play for both Sen and, somewhere on the cusp, Pres, especially if we have a western presence on the ticket.

 

[unofan]

Ernst is a monster. It doesn't sound like we have much of a bench there. You would think an ex-Gov would have a shot.

Our nominee better live in WI, IA, MI, OH, and PA.

Chet Culver? Jesus Christ, Kep, you could at least pretend to know what you're talking about.

There's no bench, correct. But Culver couldn't even keep a gladhanding job with the local Y after he got booted from office.

 

[Rover]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Jesus Christ, Kep, you could at least pretend to know what you're talking about.

That's just crazy talk!

 

[trixR4kids]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Funny how that narrative from a few months ago about AOC and friends turned out to be a complete farce...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Last month, an anoymous pollster leaked polling saying that <a href="https://twitter.com/AOC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AOC</a> was a vulnerability in swing districts.<a href="https://twitter.com/DataProgress?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DataProgress</a> polled swing districts with two separate pollsters. AOC has the same favorability as Biden and better numbers than Democratic leadership. <a href="https://t.co/61doBLHlM7">https://t.co/61doBLHlM7</a> <a href="https://t.co/vb2Sfnvatc">pic.twitter.com/vb2Sfnvatc</a></p>— we’re going to pass AVR ���� (@SeanMcElwee) <a href="https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1164603685529358337?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 22, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Chet Culver? Jesus Christ, Kep, you could at least pretend to know what you're talking about.

There's no bench, correct. But Culver couldn't even keep a gladhanding job with the local Y after he got booted from office.

I don't know anything about IA. I think I've made that clear.

How on earth did he ever win a gov race?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Jason Lewis going for Tina Smith's Senate seat in Minnesota. There has never been a bigger true believer clown in Minnesota. Total Clown Show.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Jason Lewis says he’ll run against Tina smith for senate

He’s going to get ****ing smoked

He lost a house race in a red suburban area.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Here's the thing - most of MN's 2 district is second-ring suburb, and he lost it last year as the incumbent. I think most of the second-ringers will steer slightly away from him in 2020, and there simply aren't enough rural people for him to win the state. It'll be a close race, but Tina Smith (appointed replacement for Stuart Smalley) should win.

Not only that, but he would have to overcome massive city majorities from the inner part of the twin cities, as well as Duluth and Rochester. Winning a state wide race isn’t the same as a house race in a deeply red district.

I’m not saying this for your sake, obviously.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Him running is the best news possible for the DFL cause he will chances are win the primary and will get people out to vote against him in the general. Any chance the GOP had of getting a for hold here diminished greatly.

 

[unofan]

I don't know anything about IA. I think I've made that clear.

How on earth did he ever win a gov race?

Family name recognition + riding on Vilseck's coattails + a no name GOP opponent.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 116th Congress: Episode 2 The Turtle Has Total Control

Family name recognition + riding on Vilseck's coattails + a no name GOP opponent.

So, not repeatable?

Do the IA Dems have anybody with a shot at Ernst? Seems like the state was fairly reasonable up until a decade ago. Has it really become North Kansas? Did IQs drop suddenly?

 

[unofan]

So, not repeatable?

Do the IA Dems have anybody with a shot at Ernst? Seems like the state was fairly reasonable up until a decade ago. Has it really become North Kansas? Did IQs drop suddenly?

I wouldn't say it's likely, but Ernst is campaigning as though she's at least a little nervous. Greenfield is probably the early leader for the Dem nomination; her campaign manager screwed her 2 years ago for the congressional seat covering Des Moines by falsifying signatures on her nominating petition. Most of the state party has lined up behind her against Ernst.