115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

[Handyman]

The entire House is up every two years. There's no wrong places or right places. The Senate is different as all the seats aren't up every time.

You know what I mean...the challengers the GOP have to unseat Dems suck and the new Dems seem to be running well poll wise so they should beat incumbents. The Dems are going to win a bunch and hold enough to gain power in the House.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

You know what I mean...the challengers the GOP have to unseat Dems suck and the new Dems seem to be running well poll wise so they should beat incumbents. The Dems are going to win a bunch and hold enough to gain power in the House.

I think the main dynamic has been that a lot of Republicans "retired" this cycle because they knew they had no shot running this time around.

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

So you are predicting what almost everyone else is including the pollsters and stats guys...man going hard on a limb there

And on the topic of predicting I told you about three weeks before the theoretically the bees would start saying the Dems might lose. Journalism 101 stuff there. Got to make it look close to keep people interested and watching.

Yup. Putting aside my utter disgust with all things Republican, you have to admire the narrative they created regarding Kavanaugh and how they got the story into the mainstream media.

Immediately after Kavanaugh's confirmation, GOP strategists starting pimping the idea that Kavanaugh was riling up the base. They produced several internal and Fox News polls which coincidentally of course showed the same thing. All GOP leaders from Itch to McCarthy to "anonymous sources" all stuck to the talking points. Of course, there is no way to gauge the SCOTUS fight's effect on the electorate the day after confirmation but put that aside for a moment.

Mainstream media, who lets face it tend to be cowards when it comes to questioning Republicans, dutifully report this out. Pollsters not wanting to be caught flat footed now also start adjusting their likely voter models to include more Republicans and viola! A narrative suddenly becomes gospel and Scoobs starts salivating like Pavlov's dogs.

One week later, CNN releases a poll showing the exact opposite. As in the Kavanaugh fight actually energized people who oppose him more than people who like him. This makes sense as to use an analogy you may be upset with a bad call in a championship game, but if your team ultimate wins how upset are you after the game is over? Probably not very much as opposed to if your team had lost.

So, what's the state of the House and Senate? GOP has triaged about 15 races by most accounts. They expect to get killed in PA due to redistricting and have blown off a variety of seats from NJ to VA to KS to CO and some others in between. So, in order to hold onto the House they pretty much need to run the table in about every one of the 60 or so toss up races that are left. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely given that it means a strong GOP performance in places like CA, WA, NJ, NY, and IL? We'll find out soon enough.

Senate was always a long shot but really aside from Heitkamp how are the Dems in any worse position than last month? Bredesen is back to tied in two independent polls in TN and Manchin, Tester and inexplicably Donnelly are leading their races. A very important point was made recently about how the Dems need to limit the damage this year in order to be able to take over after 2020. If they can break even this year that's not bad at all.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

Yup. Putting aside my utter disgust with all things Republican, you have to admire the narrative they created regarding Kavanaugh and how they got the story into the mainstream media.

Immediately after Kavanaugh's confirmation, GOP strategists starting pimping the idea that Kavanaugh was riling up the base. They produced several internal and Fox News polls which coincidentally of course showed the same thing. All GOP leaders from Itch to McCarthy to "anonymous sources" all stuck to the talking points. Of course, there is no way to gauge the SCOTUS fight's effect on the electorate the day after confirmation but put that aside for a moment.

Mainstream media, who lets face it tend to be cowards when it comes to questioning Republicans, dutifully report this out. Pollsters not wanting to be caught flat footed now also start adjusting their likely voter models to include more Republicans and viola! A narrative suddenly becomes gospel and Scoobs starts salivating like Pavlov's dogs.

One week later, CNN releases a poll showing the exact opposite. As in the Kavanaugh fight actually energized people who oppose him more than people who like him. This makes sense as to use an analogy you may be upset with a bad call in a championship game, but if your team ultimate wins how upset are you after the game is over? Probably not very much as opposed to if your team had lost.

So, what's the state of the House and Senate? GOP has triaged about 15 races by most accounts. They expect to get killed in PA due to redistricting and have blown off a variety of seats from NJ to VA to KS to CO and some others in between. So, in order to hold onto the House they pretty much need to run the table in about every one of the 60 or so toss up races that are left. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely given that it means a strong GOP performance in places like CA, WA, NJ, NY, and IL? We'll find out soon enough.

Senate was always a long shot but really aside from Heitkamp how are the Dems in any worse position than last month? Bredesen is back to tied in two independent polls in TN and Manchin, Tester and inexplicably Donnelly are leading their races. A very important point was made recently about how the Dems need to limit the damage this year in order to be able to take over after 2020. If they can break even this year that's not bad at all.

Both the Senate and the House should be Dem by now because of what Turtle Boy said. Somehow him coming out and saying he wants more tax cuts for the rich and he wants to destroy SS, Medicare, and Medicaid isn't enough? Really? How ****ing stupid are people?

 

[wolverineTrumpet]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

Both the Senate and the House should be Dem by now because of what Turtle Boy said. Somehow him coming out and saying he wants more tax cuts for the rich and he wants to destroy SS, Medicare, and Medicaid isn't enough? Really? How ****ing stupid are people?

Very. Very, very stupid.

Although I continue to underestimate the stupidity of the American people, I am constantly reminded. Fox News does a great job of keeping the masses stupid and angry. The worst part is the people I know and love that buy the bs the republicans sell.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

So, what's the state of the House and Senate? GOP has triaged about 15 races by most accounts. They expect to get killed in PA due to redistricting and have blown off a variety of seats from NJ to VA to KS to CO and some others in between. So, in order to hold onto the House they pretty much need to run the table in about every one of the 60 or so toss up races that are left. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely given that it means a strong GOP performance in places like CA, WA, NJ, NY, and IL? We'll find out soon enough.

Senate was always a long shot but really aside from Heitkamp how are the Dems in any worse position than last month? Bredesen is back to tied in two independent polls in TN and Manchin, Tester and inexplicably Donnelly are leading their races. A very important point was made recently about how the Dems need to limit the damage this year in order to be able to take over after 2020. If they can break even this year that's not bad at all.

Right now 538 has the GOP's chances of holding the senate at a recent high. Yet it has the Dem's chances of taking the house at a recent high. So right now, no apparent big news.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

Very. Very, very stupid.

Although I continue to underestimate the stupidity of the American people, I am constantly reminded. Fox News does a great job of keeping the masses stupid and angry. The worst part is the people I know and love that buy the bs the republicans sell.

I still don't get it. I watch it once in a while and I listen to Rush as I did today and you would have to be a complete moron to fall for that ****.

 

[French Rage]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hit...pac-is-backing-dems-in-two-key-michigan-races

A political action committee run by Republican women opposed to Donald Trump is getting involved in Michigan's most competitive Congressional races — and supporting the Democrat candidates.

Republican Women for Progress PAC tells Metro Times it has taken out $50,000 television ad buys in Michigan's 11th and 8th Congressional District races. Both races feature a moderate Democrat against a Trump-aligned Republican. In MI-11, Democrat Haley Stevens is up against Republican Lena Epstein, the former Michigan chair for the Trump campaign. In MI-08, Elissa Slotkin is trying to unseat incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop.

 

[Rover]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

Both the Senate and the House should be Dem by now because of what Turtle Boy said. Somehow him coming out and saying he wants more tax cuts for the rich and he wants to destroy SS, Medicare, and Medicaid isn't enough? Really? How ****ing stupid are people?

Not really. GOP voters are driven by racial resentment. If that's your #1 concern, it crowds out all else. I'd also add that for the overwhelmingly old population that makes up the vast majority of the GOP base, they don't seriously think their own SS or Medicare is going to get cut. I doubt they give a rat's *** if the people who come after them get cut as Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation before them are the most whiny narcissistic generations this country has ever produced.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

Not really. GOP voters are driven by racial resentment. If that's your #1 concern, it crowds out all else. I'd also add that for the overwhelmingly old population that makes up the vast majority of the GOP base, they don't seriously think their own SS or Medicare is going to get cut. I doubt they give a rat's *** if the people who come after them get cut as Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation before them are the most whiny narcissistic generations this country has ever produced.

So, basically we're back to the 60's. Great.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

https://www.metrotimes.com/news-hit...pac-is-backing-dems-in-two-key-michigan-races

I'm not knocking it at all, but just to be clear, these aren't the "Republican Women" most are thinking of when they see that phrase. This PAC was previously the Republican Women for Hillary PAC. It's kind of the Diamond and Silk of the left. Or a better analogy is maybe the New Alex P Keaton's. Alex, as we know, grew up with liberal hippie parents but came of age during the "Reagan Revolution" causing him to abandon his parent's bell bottoms and patchouli ways in favor of button-downs and William F. Buckley. These young ladies who probably had parents like Alex are kinda the same except replace Reagan with Obama, and Buckley with Samantha Bee.

 

[mookie1995]

So, basically we're back to the 60's. Great.

Made America great again

 

[unofan]

Heard on a cable news program for the first time this fall that the Democrats may not win the House. I said a month ago during Kavanaugh something had changed.

538 has the Dems with an 80-85% chance of winning the house.

That's the same as rolling a die and winning if anything other than a 1 rolls.

I'll take those odds.

 

[mookie1995]

I'm not knocking it at all, but just to be clear, these aren't the "Republican Women" most are thinking of when they see that phrase. This PAC was previously the Republican Women for Hillary PAC. It's kind of the Diamond and Silk of the left. Or a better analogy is maybe the New Alex P Keaton's. Alex, as we know, grew up with liberal hippie parents but came of age during the "Reagan Revolution" causing him to abandon his parent's bell bottoms and patchouli ways in favor of button-downs and William F. Buckley. These young ladies who probably had parents like Alex are kinda the same except replace Reagan with Obama, and Buckley with Samantha Bee.

They shave their box though, right?

 

[mookie1995]

538 has the Dems with an 80-85% chance of winning the house.

That's the same as rolling a die and winning if anything other than a 1 rolls.

I'll take those odds.

yah.... give tD something to run against??

 

[unofan]

Both the Senate and the House should be Dem by now because of what Turtle Boy said. Somehow him coming out and saying he wants more tax cuts for the rich and he wants to destroy SS, Medicare, and Medicaid isn't enough? Really? How ****ing stupid are people?

The Senate was never going to flip. The GOP only has 9 seats up this year. They could go 0-fer and still have 42 seats. And they were never going to go 0-fer.

But by all means, keep telling us how the Dems chances dropping from 1-in-5 to 1-in-6 means things changed, chicken little.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

The Senate was never going to flip. The GOP only has 9 seats up this year. They could go 0 fer and still have 42 seats. And they were never going to go 0-get.

But by all means, keep telling us how the Dems chances dropping from 1-in-5 to 1-in-6 means things changed.

O-fer isn't a flip? Seriously you people are so confusing. But, hey, you want to shoot me for reporting what I hear, feel free. It's exactly what happened in 2016.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

They shave their box though, right?

I don’t even know how to respond to your post sometimes lol. Good lord.

538 has the Dems with an 80-85% chance of winning the house.

That's the same as rolling a die and winning if anything other than a 1 rolls.

I'll take those odds.

538 was the only one who saw something that none of the other pundits and stat houses did. That trump had a chance. Everyone else was saying mortal lock. The closer we got to Election Day*, the more he more he backed off “lock”.

*why autocorrect capitalizes that I have no idea

 

[unofan]

O-fer isn't a flip? Seriously you people are so confusing. But, hey, you want to shoot me for reporting what I hear, feel free. It's exactly what happened in 2016.

I'm shooting you because you're chicken little. You're the guy who loses to someone drawing an inside straight and *****es about the universe being against you for the next decade.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 115th Congress the final chapter: And Gerry Mander as the Speaker.

I'm shooting you because you're chicken little. You're the guy who loses to someone drawing an inside straight and *****es about the universe being against you for the next decade.

I've never been the guy who's drawn an inside straight. But, shoot away.

I find on this board that what I do (or at least try to do) is make very fine points. They're small points that are often missed. I type them out that way on purpose. Yeah, most people miss them but I don't care about that.