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1/28/13 Poll Speculation
- Thread starter joecct
- Start date
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Thing is, (and to be fair, you accidentally alluded to this in the above) OWP and OOWP doesn't mean much in D-3, half the time.
Most teams tend to play the same OOC opponents every year, and a team's OWP and OOWP is severely skewed when the numbers are derived from an insular schedule that results in playing all OOC games against two relatively weak- or strong -conferences... There are just too few diverse inter-conference games played to obtain much of any useful comparisons, but what few results there are seem to favor the W teams and Oswego in that regard, as far as the Eastern teams go.
(In that same vein, I don't know how in the world any metric can hope to evaluate E/W in D-3 in a national sense, but I suppose you gotta give the various guys credit for trying... Just because I differ IMO at times doesn't indicate that I don't appreciate what a daunting task the entire deal is.)
And what he had explained to you is that, while Oswego may have some nice big teams on their schedule, overall Norwich comes out ahead of Oswego in both OWP and OOWP... aka the components of SOS. In other words, in terms of raw number, Norwich WINS the SOS comparison with Oswego. Im sure he'll correct me if I'm wrong, but I do believe he has repeatedly stated that he calculates the OWP and OOWP by adding the total number of wins/losses by all opponents (excluding the games played with the team in question) into one large W-L-T record and determining the % of that record.
I'm sure he didn't arbitrarily pick the margin of error. My guess is that the margin of error is a product of the low sample size (25 games isn't much, after all) and the inadequate crossover (i.e. not everybody plays everybody). Want a smaller margin of error? Play an 82 game schedule in which everybody plays everybody... oh wait... that's not DIII.
Thing is, (and to be fair, you accidentally alluded to this in the above) OWP and OOWP doesn't mean much in D-3, half the time.
Most teams tend to play the same OOC opponents every year, and a team's OWP and OOWP is severely skewed when the numbers are derived from an insular schedule that results in playing all OOC games against two relatively weak- or strong -conferences... There are just too few diverse inter-conference games played to obtain much of any useful comparisons, but what few results there are seem to favor the W teams and Oswego in that regard, as far as the Eastern teams go.
(In that same vein, I don't know how in the world any metric can hope to evaluate E/W in D-3 in a national sense, but I suppose you gotta give the various guys credit for trying... Just because I differ IMO at times doesn't indicate that I don't appreciate what a daunting task the entire deal is.)
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