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1/28/13 Poll Speculation
- Thread starter joecct
- Start date
VermontfaninNY
New member
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
When do the first rankings that matter come out?
When do the first rankings that matter come out?
norm1909
Larry Normandin
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Will it be "one ranked always ranked" as it was before 2012, or will it be "only the final ranking counts" as was used in 2012????? We used to know that, but the NCAA put the championship handbooks behind closed doors last year.
The first (unofficial trial rankings & unreleased) are today. We will see ranking #1 in a week and then every Tuesday until the final secret ranking on Selection Sundae.
Will it be "one ranked always ranked" as it was before 2012, or will it be "only the final ranking counts" as was used in 2012????? We used to know that, but the NCAA put the championship handbooks behind closed doors last year.
Birdwatcher
Registered User
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Hot Fudge Please!!!
The first (unofficial trial rankings & unreleased) are today. We will see ranking #1 in a week and then every Tuesday until the final secret ranking on Selection Sundae.
Will it be "one ranked always ranked" as it was before 2012, or will it be "only the final ranking counts" as was used in 2012????? We used to know that, but the NCAA put the championship handbooks behind closed doors last year.
Hot Fudge Please!!!
admiral0417
Registered User
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
When I say 'Much Stronger', I don't simply mean the records of the ECAC-East vs. the SUNYAC. What I mean is that the ECAC-E has a much higher Winning % out-of-conference than does the SUNYAC. This increases Norwich's SOS (and all ECAC-East teams) while it hurts Oswego's SOS (and all SUNYAC teams).
The ECAC-East is 37-19-7 (.643) out of conference.
The SUNYAC is 31-39-7 (.448) out of conference.
http://www.uscho.com/stats/interconference/division-iii-men/2012-2013/
So yes the ECAC-East is a much stronger league than the SUNYAC this year. (Statistically speaking)
When I say 'Much Stronger', I don't simply mean the records of the ECAC-East vs. the SUNYAC. What I mean is that the ECAC-E has a much higher Winning % out-of-conference than does the SUNYAC. This increases Norwich's SOS (and all ECAC-East teams) while it hurts Oswego's SOS (and all SUNYAC teams).
The ECAC-East is 37-19-7 (.643) out of conference.
The SUNYAC is 31-39-7 (.448) out of conference.
http://www.uscho.com/stats/interconference/division-iii-men/2012-2013/
So yes the ECAC-East is a much stronger league than the SUNYAC this year. (Statistically speaking)
WirelessCobra
New member
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Ozz, I hope you are the wizard (I like your thinking) http://board.uscho.com/images/icons/icon12.png
Ozz, I hope you are the wizard (I like your thinking) http://board.uscho.com/images/icons/icon12.png
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
My NEW current predictions for the first NCAA Regional Rankings...
1. Utica
2. Norwich
3. Oswego
4. Hobart
5. Bowdoin
My NEW current predictions for the first NCAA Regional Rankings...
1. Utica
2. Norwich
3. Oswego
4. Hobart
5. Bowdoin
My computer would predict almost the same thing, but it tells me that Hobart and Oswego need to change places.
I would have no problem with that. I think the two are pretty close, but i think for me, they are so close that the lone head to head victory puts Oswego above them.
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
While I am a Hobart fan, I tend to agree with you there (especially given the game was in Geneva). I'm guessing Prof's computer would have Hobart above Oswego due to other metrics (i.e. SOS). Hoping both teams make the tourney....I think they both belong in the hunt for a national title.
While I am a Hobart fan, I tend to agree with you there (especially given the game was in Geneva). I'm guessing Prof's computer would have Hobart above Oswego due to other metrics (i.e. SOS). Hoping both teams make the tourney....I think they both belong in the hunt for a national title.
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admiral0417
Registered User
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
If you take a little closer look you will notice that SUNYAC has played 34 of 77 games against ECAC West which greatly affects the overall record vs. other conferences. In turn, ECAC East has played 24 of 63 games against MASCAC, Northeast 10 and ECAC NE....going 19-4-1 against inferior conferences. Shouldn't you look at WHO you are playing as well? ECAC East has gotten fat on weaker conferences...period.
So yes, the stats are the stats and you can take what you want from them, but I'd be willing to bet these numbers would be much different if you had played 34 games against ECAC West (none by Plattsburgh) instead of the 4 they have played.
If you take a little closer look you will notice that SUNYAC has played 34 of 77 games against ECAC West which greatly affects the overall record vs. other conferences. In turn, ECAC East has played 24 of 63 games against MASCAC, Northeast 10 and ECAC NE....going 19-4-1 against inferior conferences. Shouldn't you look at WHO you are playing as well? ECAC East has gotten fat on weaker conferences...period.
So yes, the stats are the stats and you can take what you want from them, but I'd be willing to bet these numbers would be much different if you had played 34 games against ECAC West (none by Plattsburgh) instead of the 4 they have played.
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Maybe I missed the answer somewhere (since I haven't read this entire thread) but WHERE are those random TIES coming from in the Norwich PairWise statistics? Or, for that matter, their "19th (or 20th) win"? The NU site has 18-2 overall.
Maybe I missed the answer somewhere (since I haven't read this entire thread) but WHERE are those random TIES coming from in the Norwich PairWise statistics? Or, for that matter, their "19th (or 20th) win"? The NU site has 18-2 overall.
Birdwatcher
Registered User
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Those are the final PairWise for 2012. Norwich is only showing 24 games played because the DII & DI games are not included for these rankings. They are not out yet for 2013!!
Maybe I missed the answer somewhere (since I haven't read this entire thread) but WHERE are those random TIES coming from in the Norwich PairWise statistics? Or, for that matter, their "19th (or 20th) win"? The NU site has 18-2 overall.
Those are the final PairWise for 2012. Norwich is only showing 24 games played because the DII & DI games are not included for these rankings. They are not out yet for 2013!!
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Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
Thanks for bringing me back to 2013. I must have been back lamenting Lake Placid
Thanks for bringing me back to 2013. I must have been back lamenting Lake Placid
While all of that may be true (and I do agree with you), this really comes down to SOS and how it is determined.
SOS is determined by two factors: OWP (Opponents Winning Percentage.. Largely comprised of how your conference foes perform out of conference) and OOWP (Opponents Opponents Winning Percentage.. Largely comprised of who your conference opponents play, like you mentioned above). The thing is that SOS is computed using two parts OWP and one part OOWP. This adds more emphasis on how your conference fairs out of conference than it does who they play.
So while I may agree that the SUNYAC playing the ECAC West is much tougher than some of the opponents that the ECAC East plays, the numbers (used for NCAA Pool C consideration) say that the ECAC East is a much better conference than the SUNYAC.
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
It all depends on the metric upon which you choose to hang your hat...
The KRACH has been a good predictor of the field during the past couple of years, and it's SOS ranking has W teams 1-4 in that regard, Oswego at #5, and Middlebury as the highest-ranked E team at #12. (Norwich is behind every W team in that ranking at #18, even Nazareth.)
Considering that, Oswego doesn't look over-rated to me at #2 overall -having gone 1-2 v. Hobart and Utica- and the E doesn't look like a particularly tough conference, either... I would rank the Lakers ahead of Norwich on that fact alone, and ahead of Hobart by an inch or so, just by dint of their H2H win against a demonstrably excellent Statesmen team.
It all depends on the metric upon which you choose to hang your hat...
The KRACH has been a good predictor of the field during the past couple of years, and it's SOS ranking has W teams 1-4 in that regard, Oswego at #5, and Middlebury as the highest-ranked E team at #12. (Norwich is behind every W team in that ranking at #18, even Nazareth.)
Considering that, Oswego doesn't look over-rated to me at #2 overall -having gone 1-2 v. Hobart and Utica- and the E doesn't look like a particularly tough conference, either... I would rank the Lakers ahead of Norwich on that fact alone, and ahead of Hobart by an inch or so, just by dint of their H2H win against a demonstrably excellent Statesmen team.
Fishman'81
Black Bear since D-2
Re: 1/28/13 Poll Speculation
My apologies; no disrespect intended. I took a depiction of your putative rankings (posted by someone else) as accurate, but when I made a rare trip to d3hockey, I couldn't find your current rankings.
I will be interested to see them, when you make then available.
My apologies; no disrespect intended. I took a depiction of your putative rankings (posted by someone else) as accurate, but when I made a rare trip to d3hockey, I couldn't find your current rankings.
I will be interested to see them, when you make then available.