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2026 Elections: To the Midterms and Beyond!

This has been the damndest election cycle in my life, especially for a midterm.

I've gotten 3 or 4 flyers sponsored by the State of Israel. So apparently some foreign interference in elections is kosher?

The Dem candidate for senate in Iowa just put out an anti-trans ad. It's bad (could've stopped at the sports issue and probably would've been a "meh," but he went further), and an unforced error. Not sure what it's intended to accomplish other than putting the focus back on that issue, which is stupid.
 
unofan said:
This has been the damndest election cycle in my life, especially for a midterm.

I've gotten 3 or 4 flyers sponsored by the State of Israel. So apparently some foreign interference in elections is kosher?

The Dem candidate for senate in Iowa just put out an anti-trans ad. It's bad (could've stopped at the sports issue and probably would've been a "meh," but he went further), and an unforced error. Not sure what it's intended to accomplish other than putting the focus back on that issue, which is stupid.
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Is that the doosh who wants to ban gender affirming care? Or federal funding for gender affirming care?
 
Fwiw the state rep candidate Will Lawrence had some local people out here working for him last month. It is the first Democrat to bother hitting my house in the 10ish years I have lived here. I feel pretty confident about him winning, but I have been burnt before so...
 
Bronco said:
Fwiw the state rep candidate Will Lawrence had some local people out here working for him last month. It is the first Democrat to bother hitting my house in the 10ish years I have lived here. I feel pretty confident about him winning, but I have been burnt before so...
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Are you in a super red place?
 
I do enjoy that on FiftyPlusOne, one Monty Carlo result out of 100 has Dems picking up 14 Senate seats and 97 House seats. :)

Median result is D+4 Senate and +42 House.

They have 5 House seats that were > Dump +10 in 2024 rated Toss Up, another 7 rated Lean Dem, and 1 rated Likely Dem.

They have a seat that had a 17.9 Dump margin in 2024 rated as Lean GOP.
 
Race to the White House, which seems pretty legitimate, has Dems 93% chance of the House and 74% of the Senate.

Talarico 75% in Texas, Jackson 68% in Maine, Peltola 59% in Alaska, Turek 57% in Iowa, Brown 69% in Ohio. Everybody be sure to leave choice offerings to the gods this week.
 
Kepler said:
I do enjoy that on FiftyPlusOne, one Monty Carlo result out of 100 has Dems picking up 14 Senate seats and 97 House seats. :)

Median result is D+4 Senate and +42 House.

They have 5 House seats that were > Dump +10 in 2024 rated Toss Up, another 7 rated Lean Dem, and 1 rated Likely Dem.

They have a seat that had a 17.9 Dump margin in 2024 rated as Lean GOP.
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I believe they are on a knifes-edge of a dummymander but again I can't prove anything.
 
apparently the cleveland plains newspaper just endorsed
Kepler said:
Race to the White House, which seems pretty legitimate, has Dems 93% chance of the House and 74% of the Senate.

Talarico 75% in Texas, Jackson 68% in Maine, Peltola 59% in Alaska, Turek 57% in Iowa, Brown 69% in Ohio. Everybody be sure to leave choice offerings to the gods this week.
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If Jackson wins, not likely btw, it would be the biggest upset ever. The amount of ads for collins has to 4 or 5 to 1. Its an unreal amount of money.
 
walrus said:
apparently the cleveland plains newspaper just endorsed

If Jackson wins, not likely btw, it would be the biggest upset ever. The amount of ads for collins has to 4 or 5 to 1. Its an unreal amount of money.
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And if Susan Collins wins it proves that humans will always reward their abuser no matter what.
 
walrus said:
If Jackson wins, not likely btw, it would be the biggest upset ever. The amount of ads for collins has to 4 or 5 to 1. Its an unreal amount of money.
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Money doesn't scale. It works when there's ambivalence, inertia, or ignorance. But everybody knows that race and everybody has a view of Collins. She had a chance to demonize Jackson early, but if she blew it money won't help now.
 
Kepler said:
Money doesn't scale. It works when there's ambivalence, inertia, or ignorance. But everybody knows that race and everybody has a view of Collins. She had a chance to demonize Jackson early, but if she blew it money won't help now.
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She may well win, but greatest upset has to be hyperbole.
 
New NYT/Siena poll indicates SC is a dead heat, Nixon just six down in FL, and that MN is not nearly as in play as everything we’ve seen up to this point. (Flanagan +14)

After 2016 I’ll never really believe any poll ever again, but it would help explain why neither party is spending much money here.
 
state of hockey said:
New NYT/Siena poll indicates SC is a dead heat, Nixon just six down in FL, and that MN is not nearly as in play as everything we’ve seen up to this point. (Flanagan +14)

After 2016 I’ll never really believe any poll ever again, but it would help explain why neither party is spending much money here.
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Who knows right? Kind of agree about believing the polls.... but on the flip side a lot of them are seeming to agree.

I still think the D's get the house by 15-20ish seats and still have a sense that in the senate races a lot of the voters who lean right but are disenchanted will come back home in the senate races. Its a lot easier to give "the other party" a vote for a 2 year term in congress than a 6 year senate term.

Its also a weird year with some honestly pretty bad candidates. Paxton and Graham Nordone are insanely flawed as far as candidates go (i think even many right leaning folks who vote for them would acknowledge that). Jackson in Maine is probably good on paper, but just does not seem to have "it" (at least from what i ahve seen).

Who knows - will be interesting to see. We will know 1 week from today.
 
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