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Investing

My (Fidelity) plan to deal with SpaceX is to rebalance my net between FSKAX (exposed to SpaceX) and FXAIX (not exposed until SpaceX has been on the exchange for 12 months and has had 4 consecutive quarters of profitability).

I am currently 85% FSKAX (more stocks, hitherto less volatility. I am balancing that to 50%.

I'm worried, but I do not want to chase phantoms. This seems a good compromise.

The internet (OK, reddit... yes, I know) seems evenly split between people saying this will end civilization and people who think Musk walks on water.
 
I de-risked today and I feel fine:

  • Moved out of my total index positions in my IRAs to S&P 500 and small cap to flee the predatory IPOs.
  • Bought a large position in SGOV in my brokerage account to protect against the eventual market crash.

I've done what I can, and didn't need to generate a taxable event to do it.
 
Kepler said:
Our plan is to leave this plane of existence with zero for our child. She married well. She won't need it.
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That's all well and good. My wife passed 15 years ago. I've got 2 kids,my daughter is the oldest, been married almost 20 years and has 2 teenagers 17 and 14. My son got married a year ago no kids. I'll be 73, got pretty much everything I need and got a nice chunk of change stashed away that they're more than welcome to have.
 
We have been playing it to the safer side as we moved to retirement, but are still up.

But when we meet with our advisor next week, I will be quite clear that I want to avoid SX's at all costs. It's a pyramid scheme.
 
Good news about TSP (401k for federal workers). None of the core funds have any exposure to Elmo's IPO.

I asked my financial advisor what the breakdown among her clients was among people who want to get in on SPCX and people who want to protect themselves. She serves both retirees, for whom she tends to provide complete management, and much younger, aggressive masters of the Universe Type A IT professionals in the DC area.

She said "Most people have no questions and pay no attention. Among those who do, they all want in. They believe Musk will generate a windfall for them." I asked about her retirees. "Oh, none of them want in on it. None of them have talked about it either direction." What about her and her hands-on management? "I've stayed away and always tended to. The only time I have anything to do what AI stocks is targeting particular companies directly based on profitability." So, of all her clients, how many have discussed de-risking against the new IPOs? "None. Except you." So does that mean I'm being stupid? "No, based on your goals and comfort you're doing the right thing, and you will be far more protected than others if bad things happen."

So... huh.

If these people aren't paying attention I swear to god the only people paying any attention to markets are r/wsb to the moon eejits pump and dumping each other, and the entire economy really is just a casino now.

This is does not seem sustainable to me. Capitalism is bad enough, but capitalism dominated by con artists and inattentive lemmings seems like a mass casualty financial event just waiting to happen. Retail investors are going to get so fucked.
 
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Kepler said:
Good news about TSP (401k for federal workers). None of the core funds have any exposure to Elmo's IPO.

I asked my financial advisor what the breakdown among her clients was among people who want to get in on SPCX and people who want to protect themselves. She serves both retirees, for whom she tends to provide complete management, and much younger, aggressive masters of the Universe Type A IT professionals in the DC area.

She said "Most people have no questions and pay no attention. Among those who do, they all want in. They believe Musk will generate a windfall for them." I asked about her retirees. "Oh, none of them want in on it. None of them have any opinion whatever." So for those she manages? "I've stayed away and always tended to. The only time I have anything to do what AI stocks is targeting particular companies directly based on profitability." So, of all her clients, how many have discussed de-risking against the new IPOs? "None. Except you." So does that mean I'm being stupid? "No, based on your goals and comfort you're doing the right thing, and you will be far more protected than others if bad things happen."

So... huh.
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Yeah, but even if you aren't directly exposed you still are, because stocks (particularly the biggies) are going to get sold off by the funds to free up capital to baghold for Elon's pals. And they'll probably all do it at the same time, which means those stocks will take a hit.
 
MichVandal said:
But when we meet with our advisor next week, I will be quite clear that I want to avoid SX's at all costs. It's a pyramid scheme.
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Just a reminder: SPCX will begin trading Friday. I do not know the predictions for first day, week, month, quarter, year. I only know there is a pretty broad consensus among the financial people I trust that well before the quarter ends that initial $135 share price is going to collapse.

I am planing to forgo the game of trying to time the initial hype spike and just wait for the price to crater, then start explicit and controlled buying. The Starlink connectivity division is a good, profitable component. The rest is a hot steamy load of sake oil.

Ideally everything collapses and Elmo is forced to sell Starlink to somebody responsible and then we'll either already hold it or buy in.
 
Kepler said:
Just a reminder: SPCX will begin trading Friday. I do not know the predictions for first day, week, month, quarter, year. I only know there is a pretty broad consensus among the financial people I trust that well before the quarter ends that initial $135 share price is going to collapse.

I am planing to forgo the game of trying to time the initial hype spike and just wait for the price to crater, then start explicit and controlled buying.
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Just got offered the IPO again. They have moved the deadline from COB today to midnight. That's a sign of strength, right?
 
For those of you who do not frequently rebalance your your mutual fund portfolios but are doing so now, here’s a quick note for you: There is a 30-day block regarding purchasing back into that mutual fund after the most recent sell date. This was part of Barney Frank’s (?) bill to prevent churning while people were flitting from mutual funds to stocks and back again, chasing speculative glory. The fund companies didn’t like the curbing because it was too expensive, and investors didn’t like it because it was, wait for it…eating their profits, paying those higher mutual fund fees.
 
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SonofSouthie said:
After this IPO launches Musk to become the first trillionaire(on paper anyways).
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Well, no. Thanks to his loans and leverage, he can become a very real trillionaire if he chooses. Again, SpaceX gave him 1.3 BILLION shares (not $1.3 billion, not 1.3 million shares, 1.3 billion shares). They can do this and not dilute the stock because of an accounting trick. He will own 41% of SpaceX which means close to $800 billion. Plus Tesla and whatever other assets he has. So yes, if he chooses, he can be a liquid trillionaire. Of course there aren't that many bills readily in circulation, would weigh 11 tons and be enough to fill more than 4 Olympic sized swimming pools, but he's just enough of a narcissist to do it.

Oh, and the investor presentation is being live streamed if anyone is interested. It's Elon standing in front of a rocket, which isn't relevant to his actual business and would be like Bill Gates introducing Microsoft by standing beside a fax machine.
 
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