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Business, Economics, and Taxes 2: That's Why We Fight to Take the Means Back

Hey know, according to a guy I work with, the war is over and we won. He was even blaring Toby Keith this morning for it.


(Note: this guy has a weird ass sense of humor and it is possible he was being sarcastic but he is also a huge asshole and I honestly wouldn't put it past him to believe that)
 
It's a given. Also, drilling ANWR.
Yea, that's the other factor. There is going to be a fuck ton of natural areas destroyed if we go down this path. Going to push me towards physical assualt with some of the True Believers on the Hunting/Fishing side of things... Being from Michigan, I'm sure you know the ones, whom are totally invested in "local" conservation and have opinions on those matters, yet remain blind to the bigger picture.
 
Yea, that's the other factor. There is going to be a fuck ton of natural areas destroyed if we go down this path. Going to push me towards physical assualt with some of the True Believers on the Hunting/Fishing side of things... Being from Michigan, I'm sure you know the ones, whom are totally invested in "local" conservation and have opinions on those matters, yet remain blind to the bigger picture.
Yes, I am unfortunately acquainted with the "all politics is yokel" type.
 
Yea, that's the other factor. There is going to be a fuck ton of natural areas destroyed if we go down this path. Going to push me towards physical assualt with some of the True Believers on the Hunting/Fishing side of things... Being from Michigan, I'm sure you know the ones, whom are totally invested in "local" conservation and have opinions on those matters, yet remain blind to the bigger picture.

I had a friend during my RTX days who was an insane NRA Republichud on everything... but when you started talking about raping hunting/fishing areas for industry he became Rachel Carson.

He is also a top flight Marine marksman with over 200 guns who lives on a self-created prepper compound in Utah (to which he extended me a life-long invitation for "when the race war starts" because "you may be a commie but you have good genes." (I know how my Third Act is going to go.) He has a drain in his skull where they excised cancer. Damn near Olympic level swimmer when I knew him, even though he was late 30s back then (20 years ago). I would not be surprised if he was at January 6th, and I half expect to see him in the news someday.
 
Sidebar: Does this bring the Shale Oil back on the table? I could see this being a prominent talking point if NoDak oil starts moving again. I'm sure the Dumpies would eat that shit up with an XL spoon... USA JOBS!!!11!
I preface this with: I am not an expert on oil and gas, but I follow one on TikTok. So this is just my opinion formed by information shared by this man.

Short answer: Yes, kinda.

Long answer: To a point, but not immediately, and the winds of production change daily under this administration.

Oil and gas drilling can't just be turned on and off like a faucet. Old wells where production was stopped and equipment removed just can't roll up with new equipment, jam it in the ground, and be all set to go. Even to tap existing pockets of oil, new exploratory wells would need to be drilled to set up for production.

Then there's the refining of the oil sands. If I remember correctly, most refineries in the US are set up to refine more smooth Texas/Southern oil, and not the grittier Plains/Canadian oil sands. Despite the US being "Energy Independent," it's a misnomer because that includes us selling the grittier oil and other products to buy smoother crude oil to refine for gasoline.

There are multiple facets to the oil industry that each build off each other. Disturbing them (ie: Iran conflict) throws the entire industry off kilter. $80/bbl, with constant demand, and limited outside influence, makes oil sands attractive to drill and refine in the US. $50/bbl just means its cheaper for the US producers to buy from overseas.

$120/bbl makes it more attractive to do more in house because you can sell it to other countries and make a profit off it.

Unless you nationalize the oil industry, we are never truly "energy independent" because we find it easier to sell off supply and buy supply that we can refine better.

As for ANWR, back in 2021 the oil companies said no to leasing land for drilling. Collectively. They all said if was too expensive to haul materials and manpower in for what they couldn't be guaranteed a return on what they found. In 2021. At the peak of oil prices spiking following COVID, and Trump's OPEC deal.

All this to say: the oil companies demand stability. They know there's fluctuations, but someone like Trump creates too much uncertainty. The industry likes Republicans like him for their tax credits and profits, but they know best how to navigate the calm(er) waters under Democratic presidents. And ironically, they earn the biggest profits under Democrats and their "suffocating taxes and environmental laws."
 
We can, it's just expensive, right? When Brent Crude tops $200 it will be a bargain.
The sustained $200 is what the oil industry wants.

Shell, BP, Aramco, etc aren't going to invest Billions in new oil sands drilling and refining without knowing theyre going to see a return on their investments.

Especially with this administration where political opinion changes as often as Donald's diaper.

Because if oil hits and maintains $200 this summer, you, I, and most everyone in this thread, knows that Dump will unsanction Russia as a "relief" to high oil prices and flood the market to drive cost down.

It's the same fucking playbook he did in 2018 with OPEC which cratered the price of oil thanks to COVID and the lack of demand.

Oil was negative for months because OPEC couldn't slow production enough. Then, when demand spiked in 2021, production couldn't resume fast enough (because it never could ramp up that fast) causing prices to spike and cause inflation.


But Cleetus, Raceboarders coworker, doesn't understand beyond "I jam the nozzle in my F450 and suddenly $65 doesnt fill my tank."
 
Yoopers hate it when you point out that their wants and desires of the UP line up perfectly with democtrats.

True of all the hollers where the MAGAts fester. If they wanted to rise from their poverty they would be socialists. They want something else. After 63 years, I don't pretend to know what. Whatever it is, they are getting something from what they do. These are people who can fix a car or a toilet or a roof better than I ever will. They are rational beings. Their choices bring them rewards.

They aren't fools and they aren't fooled. They are just the heroes in a different movie from the one the rest of us are appearing in.

We will never change them. We just have to outvote them and force Our Way down their throats, the way they have been doing to us. Politics is conflict. We need to stop pretending everybody is the same, put on our big girl panties, and earn the win. Elbows high.
 
True of all the hollers where the MAGAts fester. If they wanted to rise from their poverty they would be socialists. They want something else. After 63 years, I don't pretend to know what. Whatever it is, they are getting something from what they do. These are people who can fix a car or a toilet or a roof better than I ever will. They are rational beings. Their choices bring them rewards.

They aren't fools and they aren't fooled. They are just the heroes in a different movie from the one the rest of us are appearing in.

We will never change them. We just have to outvote them and force Our Way down their throats, the way they have been doing to us. Politics is conflict. We need to stop pretending everybody is the same, put on our big girl panties, and earn the win. Elbows high.
They are fooled pretty easily as I see it. They vote for people who don’t hide the fact that they want to open more mines in the UP, when the voters want to protect the fishing and hunting areas of the area. I don’t get what they actually want.
 
They are fooled pretty easily as I see it. They vote for people who don’t hide the fact that they want to open more mines in the UP, when the voters want to protect the fishing and hunting areas of the area. I don’t get what they actually want.
Like Kepler said, its everywhere where "land doesnt vote" thinks the land actually votes.

IMO, its the perception of being screwed by "big government" or "minorities" or "insert boogeyman here." And I saw it while growing up and nothing has changed since I moved away.

For the UP exactly, its seeing their pittance in tax money "used down state, and not for us," for roads, or infrastructure, or whatnot. "Why does Grand Rapids get their fourth interstste project in three years, meanwhile this 10 mile stretch of highway hasn't been touched since the Raegan Administration?"

Oh, I don't know, why would four highways that have average vehicle counts in the low hundred thousands per day deserve more maintenance than a stretch of highway that has average vehicle counts in the high dozens per day?

"Why won't the mines come back?" Because they extracted the easy to get minerals and left town. Oh, and because you voted to rip the railroad tracks out as soon as the mines closed. Then whined when passenger rail funding was made available because you wanted the increase in visitors, but you didn't want to give up the vastly underused snowmobile grade.

"Why are all the young people leaving town and not raising their young kids in this school district?" Maybe because you decided that a $0.03 increase on your property tax shouldn't go to the district still using 1996 textbooks because 'those fucking homos wearing cat ears who shit in litterboxes instead of learning,' you heard about on Fox News. Which isn't happening. Especially in the school district that needed to have a recent retiree personally fund the upgrade of the computers in the accounting/business class suite.


I was told upon graduating high school that I "wasn't the right gender, right orientation, or right color" for scholarships to college. I made do. I earned my degree. And then I moved chasing work after graduation and I personally saw whole neighborhoods of inner city youth with a fraction of ability I had, despite these "handouts."

I had a car to get from my house to college and hour and a half away. I had a side job to afford gas to go around town. I was able to work for campus in a department related to my field. There were people my age in the city with none of those mobility options. Or just opportunities. And they live in a city with millions.

I was from a town that when the three neighboring municipalities combined to save resources (like police, volunteer fire department, and water/sewer services) we were *lucky* if there was 2000 people.

These people don't want everything. They just feel and want to see everyone else not get any. They are miserable shits is what they are.


(Ope, there goes my campaign if I ever move home and want to make changes.)
 
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"Why are all the young people leaving town and not raising their young kids in this school district?" Maybe because you decided that a $0.03 increase on your property tax shouldn't go to the district still using 1996 textbooks because 'those fucking homos wearing cat ears who shit in litterboxes instead of learning,' you heard about on Fox News. Which isn't happening. Especially in the school district that needed to have a recent retiree personally fund the upgrade of the computers in the accounting/business class suite.
A few years ago a news site retweeted a picture of a science textbook that a kid had tweeted out that showed he was using the same book some athlete had used when he took the class in 1982. They thought it was so cool. I asked why they were still using the same textbook nearly 40 years later.
 
My understanding is that ~70% of the US refinery capacity is specifically designed to handle the Heavy Sour Crude. So even if we did drill more and get more Light Sweet, it will just go overseas as it already does
 
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