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2026 Bracketology: The Road to the Aud
- Thread starter Pioneer247
- Start date
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
Other than Salve (who didn't play a full D3 schedule), Hobart is the only team with fewer than five non-wins. They are an incredible outlier in a season of parity.
Inkblot Sports
New member
As far as I can tell, they match. You can see the NCAA's numbers here (note that they don't always do daily updates): https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/48989
Clicking on a team's rank number will open a popup that breaks down how it's calculated, but it's pretty confusing the way it's presented.
ColdInRomney
Registered User
Astounding. This needs a thread of its own.
Adrian has always been accommodating to new programs and open to scheduling them. They also let Hiram use their rink for some Sunday games against other NCHA teams in town to play Adrian on Friday and Saturday. I think this is a result of the lack of respect they received when their program started up back in '07(?). They played Trine a bunch too when that program started up.
They should've played Hiram 7 times this season.
Again, there is no math that can justify Utica being ahead of Aurora, or Salve in front of SNC.
Lord_Zubin
Puck Flattsburgh!!!
Yup win% appears to be the name of the game right now. Salve is getting all the heat right now but Endicott currently has a bottom 25 schedule in the entire country and they could be in line for a 1st round bye. Unless u can get a top 10 schedule (see the gap between Utica and Geneseo top 15 or top 20 doesn't seem to be cutting it), the new strategy appears to be get a bottom 20-30 ish schedule, and go win 70-80% of ur games which any of the teams near the at large do every year anyway. Bonus points if u can throw in some d2 teams. This NPI system doesn't reward teams for good wins. It punishes teams for bad losses.Right, and they should have played them two more times instead of playing Aurora twice
But seriously, Adrian would be in position for an at large bid right now if they would have done that.
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
I would say it punishes teams for quality losses. Adrian is the poster child for that this season (and Utica could be too depending on how things play out this weekend).
Pioneer247
Active member
Utica has no bad losses, Aurora lost to Lawrence and MSOE, that one kind of makes sense if we're being real
There is math that can justify it, it’s the NPI. Not that I agree with it, it is clear this year that no bad losses > beating good teams. This also doesn’t take into effect Aurora’s bottom 50% sos and Utica’s top 10 sos.
Salve is ahead of SNC because they have less bad losses. Not very hard to figure out.
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
I can concede that SNC has enough "bad" losses (Eau Claire, Olaf, CUW) that they deserve to be behind some teams with weaker schedules (like Salve).
The Adrian/Utica comparison is the one I can't get over.
Adrian has losses to #7 Aurora (x5...ok maybe that is the problem) and #17 Trine (x2).
Utica has losses to #10 Adrian (x2), #1 Hobart (x2), #2 Hamilton, #13 Geneseo (x2).
Same number of losses. Similar "quality" of losses.
Adrian has two more wins than Utica (including two wins over Utica). Both teams have one tie against top 20 teams (Adrian's tie is "higher quality" but that is splitting hairs).
Both teams have taken care of business elsewhere.
Utica will probably be in regardless, while Adrian's season is probably over.
The Adrian/Utica comparison is the one I can't get over.
Adrian has losses to #7 Aurora (x5...ok maybe that is the problem) and #17 Trine (x2).
Utica has losses to #10 Adrian (x2), #1 Hobart (x2), #2 Hamilton, #13 Geneseo (x2).
Same number of losses. Similar "quality" of losses.
Adrian has two more wins than Utica (including two wins over Utica). Both teams have one tie against top 20 teams (Adrian's tie is "higher quality" but that is splitting hairs).
Both teams have taken care of business elsewhere.
Utica will probably be in regardless, while Adrian's season is probably over.
Yes, yes, I understand - "bad" losses trump everything with NPI. I'm not saying that I don't understand, Im saying it's very flawed. My post honestly wasn't a dig at Utica, but if you insist...
* Utica is 18-7, Aurora is 23-4-1
* Aurora has played 9 (will be 10) games against USCHO top 15 teams, Utica has played 8 (will play 9)
* Common opponents: Utica is 0-2 vs Adrian, Aurora is 5-0 vs Adrian
The eye test matters. Can everyone agree that the USCHO poll, or D3 Hockey News poll have the top 15 teams more accurately aligned than the NPI? Thats the eye test...
Ironically, some of these "bad" bottom half NCHA teams have been on somewhat of a hot streak recently traveling east for holiday tournaments and winning the things.
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I can't argue there. Only explanation is SOS, which isn't consistent with the rest of the rankings.
The eye test doesn't matter. Paying any attention to the USCHO or D3 Hockey rankings is a waste of your time. I do agree the NPI is flawed but people preached transparency for years and that is exactly what we have with the NPI. I believe teams are discovering that playing a gauntlet schedule holds little value in the grand scheme of things.
PrezdeJohnson09
Proud supporter of Osmirwich hockey
I would agree that Adrian beating Utica twice and not being ahead of them is probably the most puzzling one. I wonder if Adrian lost or played different teams than Aurora for some of those games if they would still be behind them.
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
Maybe if they lost to Utica twice instead they would be ranked higher
Totally, because those would be "good" or even "great" losses.Maybe if they lost to Utica twice instead they would be ranked higher
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
Ironically the NCHA is 5-1 against East region conferences this year (4-1 against the UCHC/SUNYAC). But 13-17-3 against the MIAC.
MIAC has been the most underrated conference in D3 for years. It's that parity - everyone is pretty close to .500 every single year.
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
The MIAC is better than they get credit for. The NCHA's record against the MIAC this year is what is tanking Adrian/Aurora/SNC's SOS.
Tom Coughlin
5x NCAA Champ/2x Super Bowl Champ
On the other hand, the NESCAC has a 0.632 non-conference record. The only conference they struggled against was D-III independents (maybe Salve?).