Eh, they’ll still be in.
It’ll be Bama, Clemson, OSU, ND.
In a better world it would be those four teams with byes and we would be gearing up for the following next weekend:
12 Ball St vs 5 A&M
11 UAB vs 6 Cincy
10 Oregon vs 7 Oklahoma
9 San Jose St vs 8 Coastal
I think you are right on the Top 4. Alabama and Clemson should be locks. Ohio State is almost certainly in given the criteria (there is no other remaining team that is unequivocally better than the Buckeyes). Then you have Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati left in the running for the last spot. Notre Dame probably has the best wins (Clemson and North Carolina), although the win over Clemson may get bumped down a peg or two considering they were missing four key starters (including the best QB in the country). Texas A&M, of course, plays in the SEC. Oklahoma has a Power 5 conference title, and Cincinnati actually won all its games.
The Bearcats get eliminated because they aren't a Power 5 and the schedule is perceived as weak.
Oklahoma lost twice, but did avenge its loss to Iowa State. Had the Sooners dominated the game and blew out the Cyclones, there would probably be more talk about OU fighting for the 4th spot (they also won their last 7 games, and beat 3 Top-25 teams in doing so). However, Oklahoma won a nail-biter, and I just don't see the committee putting in a 2-loss team ahead of a 1-loss Notre Dame or SEC team.
That leaves A&M and Notre Dame. They both have 1 loss...blowouts against the top two teams in the country. A&M's best win was against a Florida team that has now lost 3 times. Other than the loss to Alabama and the win over Florida, they didn't play another Top 25 team (and only 1 other team with a winning record (Auburn: 6-4)). Notre Dame has the asterisk win against Clemson, but also beat a strong North Carolina team on the road by two touchdowns. The Irish also played for its (temporary) conference championship, and beat two other teams with winning records (BC and Pitt). As a result, I think Notre Dame has the stronger resume and should get in. I think there is even a small chance that they come in at #3.
All of that being said, I would prefer an 8-team playoff as follows:
The Power 5 Conference Champions
The highest ranked Group of 5 Champion
The two highest ranked "at-large" teams
I would also align the higher-ranked teams with their traditional bowls.
That would likely result in something like this:
1. Alabama (SEC) v. 8. Oregon (Pac 12) - Sugar Bowl
2. Clemson (ACC) v. 7. Cincinnati (Group of 5) - Orange Bowl
3. Ohio State (B1G) v. 6. Oklahoma (Big 12) - Rose Bowl
4. Notre Dame (at-large) v. 5. Texas A&M (at-large) - Fiesta Bowl
I would also be okay with using those same 8 teams, but keeping traditional matchups for the traditional bowls.
That would likely result in something along the lines of:
Sugar Bowl (SEC v. Big 12): 1. Alabama v. 6. Oklahoma
Orange Bowl (ACC v. SEC/B1G): 2. Clemson v. 5. Texas A&M
Rose Bowl (B1G v. Pac 12): 3. Ohio State v. 8. Oregon
Fiesta Bowl (at-large/independents): 4. Notre Dame v. 7. Cincinnati
