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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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In fairness to the national media, if the other R candidate had squeaked past Palin into 2nd, he probably wins by 6-8 points which would've been well in line with post-Dobbs trends (Democrats doing better than Biden, but not 20 points better).

Having said that, yes the media is being slow to recognize that Dobbs has absolutely impacted the midterms.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.
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I mean, even if it was FPTP, a plurality wins it, so the Dem still wins. They might say that if there was only one R running then the R would've taken the full 60%, but they could have still had there here if one of the Rs would've backed out. Nothing about this made the R stay in, it could have happened in any FPTP race with one being an independent.
 
Kepler said:
If you think that you have no idea how they or statistics work.
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It isn't about the stats, it is about the fact that they either don't get how rcv works or are being completely obtuse and misrepresenting the math. The arguments are stupid for the average Trumper but stats geeks should know better.

This stuff isn't advanced calculus...anyone who has passed basic algebra can figure it out. Hell read a history book plenty of examples of how this played out in history. Yet still some how the smartest people in the room take the derp argument and run with it.

Ifs and buts...that is what they are using. "If only one GOPer ran..." or "but the vote is split..." that is great and all but in the actual world 2 GOPers did run and they did split the vote so they lost. And it isnt because of misunderstanding ballots or dumb luck its cause Begich voters hate Palin enough to not rank her #2 and cause women hate the GOP.

Their odds are fine overall because they are malleable. As polls continue to add data the numbers will solidify and that is how it is supposed to be. They need to stick to that.
 
No. The thing you guys keep missing is all the narratives presented are provisional and meaningless, because 538 is a math site. We read it for politics or sports narratives because we are stupid and that's what sells to us, but all of those narratives are just the trough for the pigs. The math is all that matters and the math doesn't care about the stuff we "know" about politics or sports because we don't know anything about them. We just tell ourselves stories because the future is scary.

538 is, was, and always will be about descriptive, not prescriptive, mathematics. The instant you or I think those numbers "explain" anything IRL, we have categorically misunderstood the site.
 
Kepler said:
No. The thing you guys keep missing is all the narratives presented are provisional and meaningless, because 538 is a math site. We read it for politics or sports narratives because we are stupid and that's what sells to us, but all of those narratives are just the trough for the pigs. The math is all that matters and the math doesn't care about the stuff we "know" about politics or sports because we don't know anything about them. We just tell ourselves stories because the future is scary.

538 is, was, and always will be about descriptive, not prescriptive, mathematics. The instant you or I think those numbers "explain" anything IRL, we have categorically misunderstood the site.
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I just read “Bernoulli’s Fallacy” by Aubrey Clayton. 98% of statistics are descriptive (see what I did there?). I would definitely recommend it.
 
I do,t know anybody who gives a shit about Hunter Biden other than the Qtard die hard Trumpers.
 
Its a wonder that the Red Wave seems to be dissipating with such genius leadership in charge!

Keep preaching to your choir...I am sure all those women registering are doing it to prevent Hunter Biden from...what does he do again?
 
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