2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[Spartanforlife4]

Talking about it in the States thread but, yeah.

I am absolutely shocked but so, so happy.

Ah, shoot. Didn’t see that thread. Hope she can repeat in November.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Unsurprisingly the national media is playing up the “Sarah Palin lost” factor instead of the “maybe a relatively unknown Democrat who overcame a 4 to 1 funding disadvantage in an R+10 state against a former Governor and VP candidate and a member of a political dynasty family ran a pretty good campaign” factor.

 

[Handyman]

Unsurprisingly the national media is playing up the “Sarah Palin lost” factor instead of the “maybe a relatively unknown Democrat who overcame a 4 to 1 funding disadvantage in an R+10 state against a former Governor and VP candidate and a member of a political dynasty family ran a pretty good campaign” factor.

Yeah a lot of people with a lot of egg on their face are making excuses for why this happened. (and has been happening) Last night lots of people on Twitter were pointing out how now all of the people who 2 months ago guaranteed a Red Wave are finding excuses they might be wrong but all seem to be ignoring the obvious reasons right in front of their face. Like Wasserman at Cook who refuses to see this as part of a trend (Dems overperforming Biden's numbers post Dobbs) and just blames it all on Palin.

Its like in sports, if there is a big upset it is never that the "lesser" team won it is that the "better" team choked.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Yeah a lot of people with a lot of egg on their face are making excuses for why this happened. (and has been happening) Last night lots of people on Twitter were pointing out how now all of the people who 2 months ago guaranteed a Red Wave are finding excuses they might be wrong but all seem to be ignoring the obvious reasons right in front of their face. Like Wasserman at Cook who refuses to see this as part of a trend (Dems overperforming Biden's numbers post Dobbs) and just blames it all on Palin.

Its like in sports, if there is a big upset it is never that the "lesser" team won it is that the "better" team choked.

Yeah, I posted in the states thread where a local numbers guy gleamed from the data that women were the majority of voters in the election despite Alaska having a majority of men as registered voters.

It’s amazing that they all this data staring them in the face yet they ignore it.

 

[Kepler]

One thing abut the abortion ruling is unlike most political mistakes it doesn't fade with time. Every time a woman risks her life now, or has her life ruined, the brand burns that much worse.

The GOP made the two most significant political errors in modern American history within a 6-year span. Parties have died for less.

 

[Handyman]

Yeah, I posted in the states thread where a local numbers guy gleamed from the data that women were the majority of voters in the election despite Alaska having a majority of men as registered voters.

It’s amazing that they all this data staring them in the face yet they ignore it.

Its weird. I mean it isn't like people are going to think Wasserman or Cook Reports are bad because their forecast had to change after a few months. Hell that used to be the point, you collect data over the course of many months/years so you can evaluate trends and look for patterns. This is, BY FAR, the easiest trend to see and yet they just don't want to see it.

I get the sense some, Wasserman especially, are waiting for the other shoe to drop and flip things back to an easy Red Wave. They always seems to be in a state of hedge about this. Ironically, they are using previous trends (Presidents party gets hammered in the midterms) to try and disprove a trend. Past results do not guarantee future results seems to be lost in this argument right now.

I am not saying btw that Palin being valley gutter trash and hated by Alaskans doesn't play into this, it obviously does. But that doesn't discount the facts you laid out in your post. (and other pundits did on Twitter) The GOP lost because women don't like them. It is happening all over the place and the fact that female registration is on the rise in almost every state is a bad sign for the GOP.

 

[rufus]

Solution: Repeal the 19th Amendment.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Its weird. I mean it isn't like people are going to think Wasserman or Cook Reports are bad because their forecast had to change after a few months. Hell that used to be the point, you collect data over the course of many months/years so you can evaluate trends and look for patterns. This is, BY FAR, the easiest trend to see and yet they just don't want to see it.

I get the sense some, Wasserman especially, are waiting for the other shoe to drop and flip things back to an easy Red Wave. They always seems to be in a state of hedge about this. Ironically, they are using previous trends (Presidents party gets hammered in the midterms) to try and disprove a trend. Past results do not guarantee future results seems to be lost in this argument right now.

I am not saying btw that Palin being valley gutter trash and hated by Alaskans doesn't play into this, it obviously does. But that doesn't discount the facts you laid out in your post. (and other pundits did on Twitter) The GOP lost because women don't like them. It is happening all over the place and the fact that female registration is on the rise in almost every state is a bad sign for the GOP.

On this Alaska race they are absolutely hedging despite a mountain of evidence that Peltola’s chances get better in November (the electorate swings ~15+D from primary to general being a big one).

I think nationally they’re just too stuck on Biden and his approval ratings.

 

[Handyman]

On this Alaska race they are absolutely hedging despite a mountain of evidence that Peltola’s chances get better in November (the electorate swings ~15+D from primary to general being a big one).

I think nationally they’re just too stuck on Biden and his approval ratings.

Ignoring the trend that his numbers are rising ;^)

 

[Kepler]

On this Alaska race they are absolutely hedging despite a mountain of evidence that Peltola’s chances get better in November (the electorate swings ~15+D from primary to general being a big one).

I think nationally they’re just too stuck on Biden and his approval ratings.

They won't have that excuse for long, either.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

I get the sense some, Wasserman especially, are waiting for the other shoe to drop and flip things back to an easy Red Wave. They always seems to be in a state of hedge about this. Ironically, they are using previous trends (Presidents party gets hammered in the midterms) to try and disprove a trend. Past results do not guarantee future results seems to be lost in this argument right now.

The lamestream media are all begging for a major "October Oopsie" (e.g. some sort of mental meltdown from Biden) so the trends regress, and they can say they were right the whole time.

 

[Jimjamesak]

The lamestream media are all begging for a major "October Oopsie" (e.g. some sort of mental meltdown from Biden) so the trends regress, and they can say they were right the whole time.

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

 

[Swansong]

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

Cotton is one of those "acts dumb, is smart" shitbirds, so he knows exactly what he's doing.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Cotton is one of those "acts dumb, is smart" ****birds, so he knows exactly what he's doing.

Oh I’m not talking about Cotton. There have been plenty of “experts”, actual media people like FiveThirtyEight and others, bleating about on Twitter about the exact same stuff.

The only difference between them and Cotton is they’re not shouting CONSPIRACY but only saying “well it’s a strange result” despite the polling predicting this exact outcome.

 

[Swansong]

Oh I’m not talking about Cotton. There have been plenty of “experts”, actual media people like FiveThirtyEight and others, bleating about on Twitter about the exact same stuff.

The only difference between them and Cotton is they’re not shouting CONSPIRACY but only saying “well it’s a strange result” despite the polling predicting this exact outcome.

Well that's dumb.

 

[Handyman]

Their misunderstanding of RCV and how it actually works isn’t much better. Just because the two Republican candidates got 60% of the first round votes doesn’t mean one of them would’ve gotten 60% in the traditional primary to FPTP general system. And their stupid takes are absolutely feeding into the BS against RCV.

The media also doesn't like RCV because it makes them less valuable. In a run off one headline can sink a candidate so everyone plays nice enough and gives necessary access to keep things as kosher as possible. (Except Trump) RCV changes the equation and gives the media less clout.

These days Ron Burgundy is the perfect avatar for the mainstream media. They can't write, they can't think for themselves and they certainly can't do basic math. They are talking teleprompters one step up from an Amazon Alexa only less useful.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Well that's dumb.

FiveThirtyEight literally has this in their article:

What’s more, that Republican underperformance disappears if you look not at the results from the final round, but rather at only first-choice votes. Sixty percent of voters selected a Republican (either Palin or Begich) as their preferred candidate, while only 40 percent selected a Democrat (Peltola), perhaps a better gauge of their actual partisan preferences. In fact, by that metric, the Alaska special election was actually an overperformance for Republicans. Their 20-point combined margin over Peltola was 5 points better than the state’s R+15 partisan lean.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...bout-november/

Same fucking garbage out of Cotton’s mouth, just spoken by an “expert”.

If it was an actual “gauge of their partisan tendencies” then Palin would’ve won.

 

[Jimjamesak]

The media also doesn't like RCV because it makes them less valuable. In a run off one headline can sink a candidate so everyone plays nice enough and gives necessary access to keep things as kosher as possible. (Except Trump) RCV changes the equation and gives the media less clout.

These days Ron Burgundy is the perfect avatar for the mainstream media. They can't write, they can't think for themselves and they certainly can't do basic math. They are talking teleprompters one step up from an Amazon Alexa only less useful.

Oh no doubt. RCV forces people to vote candidates not party, something the media cannot understand today.

 

[Swansong]

And it completely and utterly - and purposefully? - ignores the fact that RCV results in people actually voting differently than in FPTP voting.

 

[Jimjamesak]

And it completely and utterly - and purposefully? - ignores the fact that RCV results in people actually voting differently than in FPTP voting.

But they already knew that! They’re experts! (rolleyes)

Honestly, I think FiveThirtyEight is just grasping at straws trying to keep their “red wave” narrative mixed with a little bit of ignorance.