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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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SurveyUSA again has the MN US Senate close at Smith+3.

Poll Report (documentcloud.org)

This can't be real. Lewis +1 in 18-34. I literally do not believe that. And again with the Trump-Smith voters. Really, 7% of Trump voters are going to vote for Smith with another 6% who are undecided? Give me a fucking break.

SurveyUSA doesn't inspire confidence in that A rating.
 
Ummm I don’t believe any person who votes for trump also voting for Tina.

if a woman is ok to pull the lever for dump, she has no issue with Jason Lewis
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Ummm I don’t believe any person who votes for trump also voting for Tina.

if a woman is ok to pull the lever for dump, she has no issue with Jason Lewis
Click to expand...

I would think the numbers in that group would be pretty small, but I can at least understand a rationale for it.

In the past I have voted for a House candidate or Senate candidate with whom I did not necessarily agree. I did so because I thought the issue of seniority, and the power that it brings to that particular person, is more important to the state than finding someone closer to my beliefs.

For instance, Collin Peterson in western and northwestern Minnesota. Collin is pretty conservative as Democrats go, but even if he was more liberal, or even if my beliefs were in lockstep with the Republican candidate, I would never in a million elections vote him out. His seniority and position as chairman for the House Ag committee are way more important to the State than just finding someone slightly more aligned with me.

Now, Smith has almost no seniority so that argument doesn't really apply here, but under the right circumstances I could easily see voting for someone for President and voting against their political twin for Senate or House.
 
SJHovey said:
I would think the numbers in that group would be pretty small, but I can at least understand a rationale for it.

In the past I have voted for a House candidate or Senate candidate with whom I did not necessarily agree. I did so because I thought the issue of seniority, and the power that it brings to that particular person, is more important to the state than finding someone closer to my beliefs.

For instance, Collin Peterson in western and northwestern Minnesota. Collin is pretty conservative as Democrats go, but even if he was more liberal, or even if my beliefs were in lockstep with the Republican candidate, I would never in a million elections vote him out. His seniority and position as chairman for the House Ag committee are way more important to the State than just finding someone slightly more aligned with me.

Now, Smith has almost no seniority so that argument doesn't really apply here, but under the right circumstances I could easily see voting for someone for President and voting against their political twin for Senate or House.
Click to expand...

Oh I’m on Board with the concept, but literally can’t wrap my head around this particular scenario
 
dxmnkd316 said:
SurveyUSA again has the MN US Senate close at Smith+3.

Poll Report (documentcloud.org)

This can't be real. Lewis +1 in 18-34. I literally do not believe that. And again with the Trump-Smith voters. Really, 7% of Trump voters are going to vote for Smith with another 6% who are undecided? Give me a ****ing break.

SurveyUSA doesn't inspire confidence in that A rating.
Click to expand...

What has changed in the past week or so that would have moved the needle closer to her? Did they correct for an oversample of outstate last time or something? Outside of Lewis having a hernia there has literally been nothing of value.

I get the feeling they are forcing results either on purpose or out of laziness. Even leaving aside there is almost no chance Lewis is polling that well with the 18-34 crowd the whole thing makes no sense. Again in other states I can buy the ticket splitting stuff but Minnesota hasnt ticket split in forever on national elections. If the MNGOP had run someone other than Lewis I would have Tina as very vulnerable but they ran a guy who couldnt even win re-election in a district that until Craig won in 2018 had had exactly 1 Dem Rep in my lifetime. Now we are to believe that guy, who Republican voters ran away from 2 years ago is somehow a threat?

With the amount of votes already in and with the population centers that are going to go heavy for Smith over Lewis I just dont buy any of it. Just this month this poll has had Smith +7, Smith +1 and now Smith +3. All that with zero negative happening for smith and really nothing of note positive happening for Lewis outside Trump coming here and propping him up. (he did get a good endorsement out of Duluth but that would not make a dent in the TC) I mean even the serial hedgers at 538 dont seem to buy it.
 
Handyman said:
What has changed in the past week or so that would have moved the needle closer to her? Did they correct for an oversample of outstate last time or something? Outside of Lewis having a hernia there has literally been nothing of value.
Click to expand...
You don't like the target shooting ad?
 
SJHovey said:
I would think the numbers in that group would be pretty small, but I can at least understand a rationale for it.

In the past I have voted for a House candidate or Senate candidate with whom I did not necessarily agree. I did so because I thought the issue of seniority, and the power that it brings to that particular person, is more important to the state than finding someone closer to my beliefs.

For instance, Collin Peterson in western and northwestern Minnesota. Collin is pretty conservative as Democrats go, but even if he was more liberal, or even if my beliefs were in lockstep with the Republican candidate, I would never in a million elections vote him out. His seniority and position as chairman for the House Ag committee are way more important to the State than just finding someone slightly more aligned with me.

Now, Smith has almost no seniority so that argument doesn't really apply here, but under the right circumstances I could easily see voting for someone for President and voting against their political twin for Senate or House.
Click to expand...

Your analysis of Peterson is dead on. Excellent points. But I think you’re giving credit to all but the most informed voters and strategic voters. Easily 95th percentile for both.
 
Handyman said:
What has changed in the past week or so that would have moved the needle closer to her? Did they correct for an oversample of outstate last time or something? Outside of Lewis having a hernia there has literally been nothing of value.

I get the feeling they are forcing results either on purpose or out of laziness. Even leaving aside there is almost no chance Lewis is polling that well with the 18-34 crowd the whole thing makes no sense. Again in other states I can buy the ticket splitting stuff but Minnesota hasnt ticket split in forever on national elections. If the MNGOP had run someone other than Lewis I would have Tina as very vulnerable but they ran a guy who couldnt even win re-election in a district that until Craig won in 2018 had had exactly 1 Dem Rep in my lifetime. Now we are to believe that guy, who Republican voters ran away from 2 years ago is somehow a threat?

With the amount of votes already in and with the population centers that are going to go heavy for Smith over Lewis I just dont buy any of it. Just this month this poll has had Smith +7, Smith +1 and now Smith +3. All that with zero negative happening for smith and really nothing of note positive happening for Lewis outside Trump coming here and propping him up. (he did get a good endorsement out of Duluth but that would not make a dent in the TC) I mean even the serial hedgers at 538 dont seem to buy it.
Click to expand...

i did see one bizarro upsidedownworld stat that showed 2016 exit polling among 18 to 34-year-olds Trump won them by a point in Minnesota. It was just A screenshot. I didn’t see the actual data. Been meaning to look that up. Not sure I believe that.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
i did see one bizarro upsidedownworld stat that showed 2016 exit polling among 18 to 34-year-olds Trump won them by a point in Minnesota. It was just A screenshot. I didn’t see the actual data. Been meaning to look that up. Not sure I believe that.
Click to expand...

I would buy that over Lewis cause Trump is famous. No one under 60 listened to Lewis' show unless they really hated CCO.
 
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