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116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

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unofan said:
Iowa is roughly split 34-34-32 R-D-I. Roughly 700k registrations for each.

In that context, half of all registered Ds have already voted compared to about 2/7ths of Rs. I'd rather have those banked.
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Not if the R state officials just shred them.
 
Bronco said:
I find it impossible to believe that MI-03 will not be Republican.
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Agreed. Only thing I can think of is maybe some of those west MI farmers see the Meijer last name and immediately think "Not ANOTHER billionaire heir who thinks he's entitled to a job in Congress." Or possibly women in GRR are going to turn out for the female D candidate.
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
So I was looking at SurveyUSA's detailed polling breakdown from this poll and last revision. Either these people are clowns or I'm very wrong about how this election is going to go.

On their 10/7 poll of POTUS and Senate for MN, there was some absolute crazy crosstabs:
Trump-Lewis: 79%
Trump-Smith: 7% (!!)
Undecided: 12%
Other: 2%
---
Biden-Lewis: 5%
Biden-Smith: 82%
Undec: 10%
Other: 3%
---
Women:
Lewis: 30%
Smith: 47%
Undec: 22% (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Other: 2%
---
Men:
Lewis: 44%
Smith: 41%
Und: 10%
Other: 5%
---
Overall:
Lewis: 37%
Smith: 44%
Und: 16% (!!)
Other: 4%

I don't for a second believe that 22% of women are undecided.
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As I have said a dozen times...this stuff is way over my head but I mean there is no way this makes any logical sense. Even if I believe somehow Lewis raised his number to 42% from 37% (which is what I believe 538 said) and I absolutely dont, the chances that 15% of the respondents in the latest poll are saying neither/undecided (it is 43-42) makes zero sense. In the same poll Biden is +6 (down from +7 though his percentage is higher) 48-42 and even that doesn't seem right but I dont see Minnesota being a bastion of ticket splitting since we have been Statewide Blue since 2006. If Biden is truly +6 Smith is no worse than +4 and that is being kind to Lewis because honestly I would put Smith way closer to 50%.

Something isnt right...
 
Handyman said:
As I have said a dozen times...this stuff is way over my head but I mean there is no way this makes any logical sense. Even if I believe somehow Lewis raised his number to 42% from 37% (which is what I believe 538 said) and I absolutely dont, the chances that 15% of the respondents in the latest poll are saying neither/undecided (it is 43-42) makes zero sense. In the same poll Biden is +6 (down from +7 though his percentage is higher) 48-42 and even that doesn't seem right but I dont see Minnesota being a bastion of ticket splitting since we have been Statewide Blue since 2006. If Biden is truly +6 Smith is no worse than +4 and that is being kind to Lewis because honestly I would put Smith way closer to 50%.

Something isnt right...
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If different respondants were asked about the Biden race and the Smith race it could just be a demonstration that MOE really means MOE. You could get numbers 5 points out in a poll with a MOE of 5. That's kinda the point. :-)
 
Kepler said:
If different respondants were asked about the Biden race and the Smith race it could just be a demonstration that MOE really means MOE. You could get numbers 5 points out in a poll with a MOE of 5. That's kinda the point. :-)
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Identical respondents. (I had to google the spelling myself.)

Anyways, this poll uses credibility interval, which I hadn't heard of before.

"The poll of 625 "likely voters" has a "credibility interval" (similar to margin of error) of +/- 5 percent."
 
unofan said:
Roughly 40% of Iowa votes have been cast. Registered Dems have about 140,000 more votes cast than Rs thus far with solid leads in 3 of the 4 congressional districts. Combined with polls showing the Dems lead solidly in all 3 districts and are actually starting competitive in Steve King's old district, and gotta think Ernst is starting to sweat.
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You weren't kidding. A+ Monmouth

I can't believe Steve King's district is close.

Edit: The moneyshot
The Republican held what seemed like an insurmountable lead in Monmouth’s August poll – 54% to 34% among registered voters and 55% to 34% among high turnout likely voters.
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That's a big enough swing to make a lot of buttholes pucker.

Edit2: Monmouth has been busy in IA.

"Senior voters prefer the Democrat"
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Kepler said:
If different respondants were asked about the Biden race and the Smith race it could just be a demonstration that MOE really means MOE. You could get numbers 5 points out in a poll with a MOE of 5. That's kinda the point. :-)
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I get that...and I would accept that except the fact that Lewis is pretty much despised and there is no way the Blue areas are going anywhere but Smith. I have a feeling they overcompensated in outstate.
 
Hey now...you dont understand the plight of the White man. You think it is easy having all of the advantages? Think how awful we look when we suck at everything despite our advantages!!
 
Debate tonight for Alaska's Senate race.

Dr. Gross in studio, Dan Sullivan on a monitor from DC.
 
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