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The GQP Thread: I'm even sick of that fuck's number and, anyway, he's gone (for now)

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This is Roza Shanina:

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As a 19-year old, Roza was a sniper in WW2. She killed 59 Nazis.

Thank you, Roza.

This is what happens to Nazis.
 
Kepler said:
It's not a "lock" because the perceived state of the economy from May through Election Day means more than anything else.
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Exactly. People ignore scare tactics when they are employed and not sucking air through a tube.
 
They are going to run out of dopes.

Data to be released Thursday by the Census Bureau is likely to show the U.S. is diversifying at the fastest rate in the nation’s history, even as overall population growth slows to the most sluggish pace since the country’s founding.

The new figures are almost certain to shine a spotlight on a trend that annual surveys have illustrated over the last several years: The number of white Americans is declining.

The white population in America has grown far more slowly than minority groups for decades. White people are having fewer children and starting their families at a later age than other groups, a long-term trend that demographers have called a baby bust. The opioid epidemic, too, has claimed so many lives that it measurably reduced the nation’s life expectancy, especially among white people.

Over the last four years, annual census surveys have shown the white population has declined by more than 1 million — a drop that is sufficient to wipe out the population growth among white people from 2010 to 2016.

The pace of the decrease is accelerating, too. Between 2016 and 2017, the white population fell by an estimated 129,000 people. From 2019 to 2020, that decline sped up to 482,000.

If trends from annual estimates conducted over the last decade hold, the census data released Thursday is likely to show an America that is, for the first time in the nation’s history, less than 60 percent white.
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Ya picked a really good time to become a white nationalist fascist party, GOP.

But I guess it isn't a coincidence. For two hundred years white conservatives used their numbers to fuck everybody else. Now that those numbers are no longer there they are like fleas that have to jump from democracy to fascism to keep their host.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Uh, the #s I'm seeing aren't that bad. In fact, better than expected in some cases...

This map shows extremely strong growth in urban areas. Rural is mostly less than zero. Obviously we already found out about house seats +/-. We'll see I guess. The demographics showed white non-hispanic was 2% lower than expected. That's a LOT.


E8m4agBXMAYtE_u
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Considering most of that urban growth is in Republican states with full GOP control over redistricting, they’ll have plenty of ways to figure out how to crack and pack Democratic voters to achieve their outcomes, and no Supreme Court to stop any of it. Somewhere I read the GOP will be able to draw 4-5 of every 10 congressional districts, while Democrats will be able to draw less than 2. It’s highly likely the GOP will flip the House on gerrymandering and redistricting alone. One article predicted minimum GOP 6 seats gained from TX, FL, NC, and GA, with the potential for 10-12.

Edit: One quick instance I’m aware of. Nashville is EXPLODING, but the GOP will likely redraw Cooper’s safely blue Nashville seat into a competitive, if not lean R seat, just by combining rural R counties into his seat. The same COULD happen to Yarmuth in Kentucky’s safe D Louisville seat, but ironically, McConnell seems against that idea.
 
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psych said:
Considering most of that urban growth is in Republican states with full GOP control over redistricting, they’ll have plenty of ways to figure out how to crack and pack Democratic voters to achieve their outcomes, and no Supreme Court to stop any of it. Somewhere I read the GOP will be able to draw 4-5 of every 10 congressional districts, while Democrats will be able to draw less than 2. It’s highly likely the GOP will flip the House on gerrymandering and redistricting alone. One article predicted minimum GOP 6 seats gained from TX, FL, NC, and GA, with the potential for 10-12.

Edit: One quick instance I’m aware of. Nashville is EXPLODING, but the GOP will likely redraw Cooper’s safely blue Nashville seat into a competitive, if not lean R seat, just by combining rural R counties into his seat. The same COULD happen to Yarmuth in Kentucky’s safe D Louisville seat, but ironically, McConnell seems against that idea.
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Oh good fucking luck. I mean, you can only do so much. You can stack and crack to your heart's desire, but they're not going to be able do that when you've got massive gains in the cities and actual losses nearly across the board in rural areas. The math just isn't going to work.

you're also going to see states like Minnesota likely chop off an entire GOP seat. Ditto for New York. California probably the same.

It might be a problem for the next 12-20 years, but whites are becoming a plurality much, much faster than anyone thought. If the nation
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Oh good fucking luck. I mean, you can only do so much. You can stack and crack to your heart's desire, but they're not going to be able do that when you've got massive gains in the cities and actual losses nearly across the board in rural areas. The math just isn't going to work.

you're also going to see states like Minnesota likely chop off an entire GOP seat. Ditto for New York. California probably the same.

It might be a problem for the next 12-20 years, but whites are becoming a plurality much, much faster than anyone thought. If the nation
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California is more likely to chop off a Democratic seat in the LA area than a GOP seat. Besides, the state has an independent commission. The report I read, I think it was in a DKE article, accounted for Democratic gains in New York, Illinois, etc. At the end of the day, redistrcting/gerrymandering is still a huge GOP advantage, with no backstop. I mean, do you think Republicans fucking care that more people moved to the city? They’ll reconfigure the map any fucking way they want to make it work, and they will make it work. Map integrity means nothing to the party in charge, and that includes when Democrats are in charge. The GOP held statehouses and the power to redraw, and they’ll do it any way they can.
Sure, it may not work for them in a decade or two, but 12-20 years is a long time in politics. Some on here predict we won’t even be living in a democracy by the end of the 2024, much less 2033-2041. I mean, you should know that as well as anyone, going from a Republican to a Democrat in that amount of time.
 
psych isnt wrong...he isnt exactly right either but he isnt wrong. In theory they could parse it off enough to steal enough seats but that still needs assumptions to be proven true for it to shift it enough. These elections don't happen in vacuums and you stack the deck so much.

The ap is not super helpful but it is not unbeatable.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Ok. Great. We're doomed. Got it.
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Doomed forever? Doubtful. I won’t go that far yet. Screwed for holding the House next year? Yeah, it’s highly likely. I’m just repeating what the experts are saying.
Now, if the reconciliation bill passes, we message it as a party correctly (keep it simple, stupid), it’s possible the losses are fewer, and hell, we might even retain or gain in the Senate this cycle, thanks to Tester and Manchin not being on the hook until 2024. We can pick up PA, WI, maybe NC but I’m not holding my breath. They’ll have GA, with their new voter law on the books that they’re already utilizing in Fulton County. AZ, where we hope Kelly is safe but people showed up to vote against Trump as much as for Kelly/Biden in 2020, and Hassan in NH, assuming Sununu goes for it, which all signs currently point to yes. We’ll obviously take a wash, but 51-49 gives us complete control of committees, and renders Manchin less important. A McCarthy-held House means no major legislation passes anymore, but Biden can continue to push through judges, etc.
 
Handyman said:
psych isnt wrong...he isnt exactly right either but he isnt wrong. In theory they could parse it off enough to steal enough seats but that still needs assumptions to be proven true for it to shift it enough. These elections don't happen in vacuums and you stack the deck so much.

The ap is not super helpful but it is not unbeatable.
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I could absolutely be wrong. I love when I’m wrong about my party losing. If we retain the House and Senate come 2023, we can have a week’s worth of “bash psych” days on here. I’ll love it.
And, you’re right. It’s all hypothetical/theoretical right now. The GOP won’t be able to gerrymander the way they did in 2010/2011. The urban areas rapidly diversifying/growing means they’ll have to be extra cautious in how they draw the seats, since it’ll be harder to parse which block exactly within the city to cut off two seats, versus cutting them off in rural counties. Just, right now, I think they’ll have the capability. Even if this is their last gasp, they’ll do it correctly. Again, we can make 11/9-11/15/2022 “bash psych” week if I’m wrong.
 
psych said:
I could absolutely be wrong. I love when I’m wrong about my party losing. If we retain the House and Senate come 2023, we can have a week’s worth of “bash psych” days on here. I’ll love it.
And, you’re right. It’s all hypothetical/theoretical right now. The GOP won’t be able to gerrymander the way they did in 2010/2011. The urban areas rapidly diversifying/growing means they’ll have to be extra cautious in how they draw the seats, since it’ll be harder to parse which block exactly within the city to cut off two seats, versus cutting them off in rural counties. Just, right now, I think they’ll have the capability. Even if this is their last gasp, they’ll do it correctly. Again, we can make 11/9-11/15/2022 “bash psych” week if I’m wrong.
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It is not a bad take, because right now the conventional wisdom shows that the GOP will be able to stack the deck enough to win the House. Plus it seems to be a favorite past time of this country to hamper the President with a non-friendly Congress. If the elections were this November I would almost assuredly bet on the Dems losing The House.

There is just so much time though. Think about how much has changed just in the last year. (and sadly how much hasnt) Between now and next November who knows what will have happened. If Biden keeps things humming though and we dont have a catastrophe I think we eek it out.
 
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