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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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Kepler said:
Something I have noticed in my world: in the wake of Russia being exposed as a Potemkin army, we are really starting to get the terror ramped up about China. There must always been an excuse to divert trillions from human flourishing to the death merchants and eavesdroppers. We cannot allow our national wealth to be spent on investing in those of us most in need -- it must go to those corporate owners and large Wall Street investors who already have the most.

That's America since 1981. Completely a coincidence that over the same period we went from 1st to 35th in quality of life and 50th in social mobility. Keep voting on those Biblical issues, white Poors. It's working out great for you.
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NOTE: Eurasia is our ally, East Asia is our enemy.
 
I find this concept really fascinating...

This whole situation is an interesting mind game to watch from the outside. Decoy targets are not a new concept to war. But to see this play out in real time is sort of cool.

I'd also like to be a fly on the wall in the meeting where the Russian's need to discuss the idea that they have been using their limited capabilities on these decoys.

Also also, is it kind of twisted that I want one of these things for a yard decoration? I think it would be an effective tool to use against the gun bumpers, lol...
 
These are great.

747b2832712175b66f9e45773c03ee11
 
I mean it's just stupidly simple yet effective. A $2000 decoy to remove a $500k rocket from your enemy's arsenal.
 
RaceBoarder said:
I find this concept really fascinating...

This whole situation is an interesting mind game to watch from the outside. Decoy targets are not a new concept to war. But to see this play out in real time is sort of cool.

I'd also like to be a fly on the wall in the meeting where the Russian's need to discuss the idea that they have been using their limited capabilities on these decoys.

Also also, is it kind of twisted that I want one of these things for a yard decoration? I think it would be an effective tool to use against the gun bumpers, lol...
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Wait, wait, Russia has fallen for the same slight of hand trick that they themselves have used? I fail to believe that.

From 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/world/europe/russia-decoy-weapon.html

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-using-inflatable-missiles-and-jets-for-deception-2016-10


is the entire country of Russia so gullible that if they grabbed some alphabet blocks and put the letters B, O, and O next to each other, they'd be frightened?
 
The Ministry of Truth is having a bad month.

Kremlin journalists, academics, and Novorossiya supporters held a forum on the “practical and technological aspects of information and cognitive warfare in modern realities” in Moscow on March 11.[2] During a panel discussion Zakharova stated that the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Russia’s internal information space due to fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”[3]

Zakharova’s statement is noteworthy and supports several of ISW’s longstanding assessments about deteriorating Kremlin regime and information space control dynamics. The statement supports several assessments: that there is Kremlin infighting between key members of Putin’s inner circle; that Putin has largely ceded the Russian information space over time to a variety of quasi-independent actors; and that Putin is apparently unable to take decisive action to regain control over the Russian information space.[4] It is unclear why Zakharova — a seasoned senior spokesperson — would have openly acknowledged these problems in a public setting. Zakharova may have directly discussed these problems for the first time to temper Russian nationalist milbloggers’ expectations regarding the current capabilities of the Kremlin to cohere around a unified narrative — or possibly even a unified policy.
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Because nothing appeases your Neo-Nazi base more than saying, "hey, guys, I'm sorry but we're really not in control here."

Speaking of:

Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin said that he would transform the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organization after the Battle of Bakhmut. Prigozhin stated on March 11 that the Wagner Group will start a new wave of recruitment after the envisioned capture of Bakhmut and reform itself into an army with an ideological component.[5] The Wagner Group has recently been expanding recruitment centers throughout Russia, including centers and programs focused on recruiting youth.[6] A Russian regional news source stated on March 11 that the Wagner Group has opened six recruitment centers in schools and youth sports clubs in Altai, Zabaykalsky, and Krasnoyarsk krais and Irkutsk Oblast.[7] A Russian opposition news source reported on March 11 that the Ministry of Education in Apatity, Murmansk Oblast included Wagner personnel at a career guidance lesson to tell “heroic stories” and promote the Wagneryonok [“little Wagner”] youth group and summer camp in Crimea.[8] The Wagner Group likely aims to recruit more impressionable recruits through these youth-focused campaigns and instill in them Prigozhin’s extremist ideological brand of Russian ultranationalism. Prigozhin may be attempting to restructure the Wagner Group into a hardline ideological elite parallel military organization to carve out a specialized role among Russian forces in Ukraine as its former role in solely securing tactical gains dissipates with the Wagner Group’s likely culmination around Bakhmut.
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So we have a weakened regime and a militarized rival center of power which if anything is even more extreme ideologically, and which is accusing the government bureaucracy of treason and sabotage. So everything authorities do to stoke nationalist and ethnic zealotry will actually feed that alternate power center more than it stabilizes support for the regime.

I'm pretty sure this is page one of "So You're Having a Coup."

Adolph knew what to do in this situation.
 
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Read the room, Vlad.

Serbia's Minister of Economy Rade Basta said on March 13 that he supports the introduction of sanctions against Russia and called on the government's ministers to urgently make a statement on the issue and adopt a unified position.

The minister's call for sanctions comes amid an escalation of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Serbia has so far refused to impose sanctions on Russia despite Western pressure to do so. The issue is a sensitive one in Serbia, where large swathes of the population are sympathetic towards Russia.

Basta, who is a member of the national-conservative United Serbia party, said that Serbia is already paying a heavy price for not imposing sanctions on Moscow and that its position is becoming untenable. He argued that Serbia cannot remain silent in the face of Russian aggression.

“Our country is already paying a heavy price for not imposing sanctions on Russia, and it is becoming unsustainable. As the Minister of Economy, I can't accept that such amount of pressure is being put on Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and we remain silent," Basta wrote on Instagram.

“That is why I am in favour of imposing sanctions on Russia, I stand by President Vucic in the defence of state and national interests, and I have absolute trust in him. That is why I am asking the government of Serbia and all ministers to make a statement on this issue," Basta said.
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When even Serbian Nazis tell you the party's over, ... this is like Fox News telling the GOP they went too far.
 
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Kepler said:
Not sure how much this is hopium or solid analysis.
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A couple of the U or T channels I watch suggest the same thing- one presented an idea that 1/2 of the prisoner army is dead already. They are also pointing out that Ukraine is suffering a lot of losses, too. But one massive difference is that Zaleski is not dictating anything- but listening to his generals. So they are likely doing a strategic pull back to inflict the most losses to the russians.

In the same area, they both pointed out how an entire armored column was destroyed- they were lured into a road surrounded by mined (and muddy) fields, picked off the front and rear, and then just ran through all of them.

And apparently, the russians are going to even more vintage armor to be destroyed.
 
One additional benefit is that the older Ukrainian military leadership (and some of the middle aged) has very deep knowledge of Russian tactics, as they were all trained in that Russian/legacy-Soviet methodology. And for the past 8-10 years, they've been working with more western militaries and learning "our" tactics.

So on one hand you have the Russians doing the Russian thing, and on the other you have Ukrainians who know all about the Russian thing but are adapting the Western thing to counter.



The Ukrainians have been masterful with their propaganda the past year, and we don't really know their losses. But unless they are truly devastating, I don't see how current state doesn't favor them militarily.
 
Kepler said:
The Ministry of Truth is having a bad month.



Because nothing appeases your Neo-Nazi base more than saying, "hey, guys, I'm sorry but we're really not in control here."

Speaking of:



So we have a weakened regime and a militarized rival center of power which if anything is even more extreme ideologically, and which is accusing the government bureaucracy of treason and sabotage. So everything authorities do to stoke nationalist and ethnic zealotry will actually feed that alternate power center more than it stabilizes support for the regime.

I'm pretty sure this is page one of "So You're Having a Coup."

Adolph knew what to do in this situation.
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I read some article that was saying the Russian military leadership is purposely putting the Wagner group in harms way hoping they get killed off. So maybe Vlad knows what to do in this situation also?
 
Russia's collapse is far from imminent, but this sounds all too familiar:

Economists say sanctions on Russian fossil fuels only now taking full effect — such as a price cap on oil — should eat into earnings that fund the military's attacks on Ukraine. Some analysts predict signs of trouble — strained government finances or a sinking currency — could emerge in the coming months.

But other economists say the Kremlin has significant reserves of money that haven’t been hit by sanctions, while links to new trade partners in Asia have quickly taken shape. They say Russia isn’t likely to run out of money this year but instead will face a slow slide into years of economic stagnation.
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Welcome back to the 80s, Russia. You know, the last time you unilaterally invaded another legitimate country? Remember, you spent 9 years draining Soviet resources to the point that Gorby had little cushion left to work with when trying to transition to a limited mixed economy?
 
MichVandal said:
A couple of the U or T channels I watch suggest the same thing- one presented an idea that 1/2 of the prisoner army is dead already. They are also pointing out that Ukraine is suffering a lot of losses, too. But one massive difference is that Zaleski is not dictating anything- but listening to his generals. So they are likely doing a strategic pull back to inflict the most losses to the russians.
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I recently read an interesting article on how the U.S. is training the Ukrainians' battlefield military leaders. We are trying to get them to abandon their old, Russian/WWII style training/strategy of trench/line fighting and teach them the more modern Western strategy style of rapid movement fighting. So, perhaps this "strategic pull back" is more in line with the strategy we're teaching them.
 
MichVandal said:
In the same area, they both pointed out how an entire armored column was destroyed- they were lured into a road surrounded by mined (and muddy) fields, picked off the front and rear, and then just ran through all of them.
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The thing that boggles the mind is this exact thing happened to Russia in the Second Chechen War. In 1999.

They don't learn. This is what happens everywhere, in everything -- military, economy, industry, technology -- when the Right is in charge.
 
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