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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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1. Wagner Group goes through Russian prisons and recruits rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.

2. Prisoners are shipped to Ukrainian front, given weapons, and sent to the front line.

3. Prisoners kill their commanders and surrender to the UA en masse.
 
Basic game theory. They will be treated better as a POW in Ukraine than they will be in a Russian Jail.

In other news Ukraine is claiming they hacked Wagner Group's web site and have all the info on the people involved.
 
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Kepler said:
1. Wagner Group goes through Russian prisons and recruits rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ***-kickers, ****-kickers and Methodists.

2. Prisoners are shipped to Ukrainian front, given weapons, and sent to the front line.

3. Prisoners kill their commanders and surrender to the UA en masse.
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Kepler said:
1. Wagner Group goes through Russian prisons and recruits rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ***-kickers, ****-kickers and Methodists.

2. Prisoners are shipped to Ukrainian front, given weapons, and sent to the front line.

3. Prisoners kill their commanders and surrender to the UA en masse.
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That is frickin' brilliant.
 
Oh man the Kremlin North (Moscow) is even more of a sh-t show than the Kremlin South (Mar-A-Lago) right now:

Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.[1] Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects.”[2]

This approach is incoherent. Russian forces do not control all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Annexing the claimed territories of the DNR and LNR would, therefore, have Russia annex oblasts that would be by Kremlin definition partially ”occupied” by legitimate Ukrainian authorities and advancing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian strikes into Russian-annexed Crimea clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s illegally annexed territory do not automatically trigger Russian retaliation against NATO, as Simonyan would have her readers believe. Partial annexation at this stage would also place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy “Russian” territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand. It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind for the dubious benefit of making it easier to threaten NATO or Ukraine with escalation he remains highly unlikely to conduct at this stage.

Russian leadership may be running out of ways to try to stop Ukrainian forces as they advance across the Oskil River and closer to Luhansk Oblast. The Kremlin may believe that partial annexation could drive recruitment of additional forces, both from within Russia and from within newly annexed Ukrainian territory. Russian forces are desperately attempting to mobilize additional forces from all potential sources to backfill their heavily degraded and demoralized units but have proven unable to generate significant combat power, as ISW has repeatedly written.[3]

This latest annexation discussion also omits other parts of Russian-occupied southern Ukraine in which the Kremlin was previously planning sham annexation referenda. A willingness to abandon the promise to bring all the occupied areas into Russia at the same time would be a significant retreat for Putin to make in the eyes of the hardline pro-war groups he appears to be courting. It remains to be seen if he is willing to compromise himself internally in such a fashion. The Kremlin’s proxies in Donbas regularly outpace Kremlin messaging, on the other hand, and may have done so again as they scramble to retain their occupied territory in the face of Ukraine’s successful and ongoing counter-offensive.
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Rumors abound that there is a pre-recorded message from Putin that will play at 8am Moscow time declaring a (not quite) total lockdown and mobilization of the country.

There is also a Twitter rumor that all military aged men 18 to 65 will be prevented from leaving the country, and all occupied territories.
 
aparch said:
Rumors abound that there is a pre-recorded message from Putin that will play at 8am Moscow time declaring a (not quite) total lockdown and mobilization of the country.

There is also a Twitter rumor that all military aged men 18 to 65 will be prevented from leaving the country, and all occupied territories.
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That will go over like a lead balloon...
 
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aparch said:
Rumors abound that there is a pre-recorded message from Putin that will play at 8am Moscow time declaring a (not quite) total lockdown and mobilization of the country.

There is also a Twitter rumor that all military aged men 18 to 65 will be prevented from leaving the country, and all occupied territories.
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They just might go Ceausescu on Poots' popka by the time this over. Then again, their billionaire class will never allow it. If he's deposed, he'll probably get the Khrushchev sendoff - retire to your Black Sea dacha with a pension and like it, or else.
 
Reports are that Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has submitted her resignation.

She had asked to resign previously but was talked into staying. Her condition was no general mobilization, as that would completely tank the economy.

Overnight markets are going to be interesting.
 
This piece argues Putin quite literally cannot be replaced, as he has successfully burned anyone who was a would-be challenger. But, simultaneously, the reality that he is failing in health and power and respect is overtaking his regime. So, instead of a coup, Russia is headed for a power vacuum.
 
Erdoğan has demanded that Putin return Crimea to "its rightful owners."

Modi and Xi have also expressed their concerns over Russia's "advances" and have asked Putin to knock it off.
 
aparch said:
Erdoğan has demanded that Putin return Crimea to "its rightful owners."

Modi and Xi have also expressed their concerns over Russia's "advances" and have asked Putin to knock it off.
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When even your autocratic pals are like, "Alright dude, time for you to call it a night."
 
Jeeeeeezus. If you had asked me what happens by Oct 1 back in February of this year, I'd have never predicted this. Maybe could have predicted a slow or even stalled invasion, but not in a millions years would I have guess general mobilization and complete breakdown in the power structure after Ukraine kicks Russia's collective ass.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Jeeeeeezus. If you had asked me what happens by Oct 1 back in February of this year, I'd have never predicted this. Maybe could have predicted a slow or even stalled invasion, but not in a millions years would I have guess general mobilization and complete breakdown in the power structure after Ukraine kicks Russia's collective ***.
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In the month leading up to Russia’s invasion there was a ton of activity near me and I always suspected Russia was a bit of a paper tiger. I would love to know how much equipment they have left.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Jeeeeeezus. If you had asked me what happens by Oct 1 back in February of this year, I'd have never predicted this. Maybe could have predicted a slow or even stalled invasion, but not in a millions years would I have guess general mobilization and complete breakdown in the power structure after Ukraine kicks Russia's collective ***.
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Poots is all in on this. He's gonna win Ukraine or die trying...
 
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