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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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RaceBoarder said:
I'm sure Poot's ego would love to wave Russia's Nuclear peen in the air in front of everyone... He knows that is currently his "Get out of jail free" card with this stuff...
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Nukes are effectively GOOJFCs for just about everything if you are willing to use them. Because literally everything is better than nuclear war. Even an asteroid collision would be preferable because everyone above ground would die within a few days rather than over months and years.


Annnnnnnnyways
 
A Finn on reddit responding to Lavrov's threat to Finland not to join NATO.

I'm more scared because
They are so many,
Our country's so small,
How will we find room to bury them all?
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ISW did a long write up of Dvornikov that is worth reading closely.

US intelligence reported over the weekend of April 9-10 that Russian Army General Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, commander of the Southern Military District, is now in overall command of Russian operations in Ukraine. This news is unsurprising; Dvornikov is the most senior of the three Russian military district commanders involved in the invasion, and the Russian military is concentrating its efforts almost exclusively in the area of Ukraine that Dvornikov had already been commanding. Had Putin selected another officer to command the entire war effort, he would likely have had to relieve Dvornikov for these reasons. There is no reason to suppose, therefore, that Dvornikov was specifically selected to take control of the war effort for any particular skills or experience he might have. Nor is there reason to think that the conduct of the Russian war effort will change materially more than it was already changing from the abandonment of the drive on Kyiv and the focus on the east. This update, which we are publishing in addition to our regular military operations assessments, explains Dvornikov’s career history and experience in Syria, the challenges he faces, and what his appointment means for the Russian campaign in Ukraine.

Dvornikov has commanded the Southern Military District since September 2016, capping a military career that began in 1978. He graduated from the Ussuriysk Suvorov Military School—a Soviet military boarding school—at age 18 in 1978.[1] Dvornikov then served as a platoon commander, company commander, and battalion chief of staff in the Far Eastern Military District (the predecessor of Russia’s current Eastern Military District) throughout the 1980s.[2] From 1991 to 1994, Dvornikov served as deputy commander and then commander of a motorized rifle battalion assigned to the Western Group of [Soviet] Forces in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, Dvornikov served as chief of staff and then commander of an unspecified motorized rifle regiment of the Moscow Military District (which merged into the current Western Military District in 2010). He then served as chief of staff and commander of another motorized rifle regiment in the North Caucasian Military District (now part of the Southern Military District) until 2003, during which time he likely participated in the Second Chechen War. From 2005 to 2008 Dvornikov served as a deputy commander and then chief of staff of the 36th Army (part of the current Eastern Military District). Dvornikov commanded the 5th Red Banner Combined Arms Army of the Far Eastern Military District from 2008 to 2010. Dvornikov served as a deputy commander of the Eastern Military District from 2010 to 2012, then as chief of staff of the Central Military District from April 2012 to 2015.

Dvornikov commanded Russia’s forces in Syria from the official beginning of the Russian intervention in September 2015 to July 2016.[3] He has commanded the Southern Military District since September 20, 2016.[4] Putin promoted Dvornikov on June 23, 2020, to the rank of army general, the second-highest rank in the Russian military and one not held by any other military district commander.[5] Dvornikov is Russia’s senior-most military district commander, outranking the other two military district commanders involved in the invasion of Ukraine, and a likely candidate (along with the commander of the Aerospace Forces, Army General Sergey Vladimirovich Surovikin), to succeed Valery Gerasimov as Russia’s next chief of the general staff. [6]

Dvornikov’s career path is not unusual among senior Russian general officers.[7]Dvornikov’s foundational military experience—like many of his fellow general officers—was his assignment as a regimental chief of staff and then regimental commander in the North Caucasian Military District from 2000 to 2003, during which period he almost certainly participated in the Second Chechen War. Dvornikov’s promotion path from regimental command to Military District Commander was typical. Russian officers usually change military districts with each promotion, as Dvornikov did—moving through the contemporary equivalents of the Southern, Eastern, and Central military districts until taking command of the Southern Military District.[8] Dvornikov’s career path through 2015 was thus unremarkable for a very successful general officer.

Dvornikov’s experience commanding the Russian deployment to Syria—and targeting of civilians during that deployment—was also not in itself unique or an indicator of a particular skill set. Many Western media outlets have focused on Dvornikov’s experience in Syria and highlighted Russian targeting of civilians under his command. All of Russia’s current military district commanders, as well as the commanders of Russia’s Aerospace Forces, Airborne forces, and Military-Political Directorate, have served at least one tour of duty in Syria as chief of staff or commander of Russia’s forces in Syria.[9] It appears to have been Russian military policy to rotate senior officers through service in Syria and then select for further promotion only those who had served in Syria.[10] Dvornikov, in fact, has less experience in Syria than many of his contemporaries, serving one 10-month tour as commander. By comparison, Western Military District Commander Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlev and Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Alexander Chayko served in Syria for two tours each, totaling 24 and 20 months respectively.[11] Dvornikov’s command of Russian operations in Syria that killed large numbers of civilians is similarly, and tragically, not unusual. Dvornikov has gained attention in Western media as the “Butcher of Aleppo,” but Russian forces targeted Syrian civilians and critical infrastructure throughout the Russian intervention in Syria, making all Russia’s current military district commanders and many of its senior military leaders complicit in such crimes.[12]

Dvornikov’s one unusual skill may result from his particular experience establishing new command structures in complicated coalition settings because he was the first Russian commander in Syria. Dvornikov established Russia’s initial command structure in Syria from the beginning of the Russian intervention in September 2015. Dvornikov has written extensively on the experience of standing up Russian operations in Syria, including a March 2016 retrospective published while he was still serving in Syria and several articles following his return to Russia.[13] He stressed the importance of establishing a unified command and control structure for Russian advisers, the Russian Air Force, and various conventional and unconventional pro-Assad forces. Dvornikov particularly claimed (likely exaggerating) in “Staffs for New Wars” (July 2018) that he rebuilt the shattered and demoralized pro-Syrian forces into a cohesive fighting force. Dvornikov’s writing additionally stresses the importance of creating a unified command structure for all Russian forces cutting across unit and service boundaries. Dvornikov’s Syrian experience may help him integrate the battered elements of the Western, Eastern, and Central military districts coming his way as reinforcements, as well as the Chechen forces of Ramazan Kadyrov and the proxy militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

His experience overseeing the pro-Assad offensive that recaptured Aleppo also likely gave him more insight into the conduct of modern urban warfare than his successors in Syria, although urban warfare in Syria was not confined to Aleppo. Dvornikov commanded the final pro-Assad offensive that recaptured Aleppo—Syria’s largest city, with a pre-war population of over 2 million—in 2016. Aleppo was one of the bloodiest campaigns of the Syrian Civil War and likely the main source of recent Russian lessons learned on modern urban combat.[14] But Dvornikov was not specially selected for command because of any experience in urban warfare. To begin with, he took command of the Southern Military District in 2016, likely years before Putin planned to invade and occupy Ukraine. If Putin or Gerasimov were specifically choosing an officer with experience in urban warfare experience to command something, moreover, it would have made much more sense to assign Dvornikov to the battle for Kyiv. Dvornikov has commanded Russian operations in Mariupol in the current Russian invasion of Ukraine all along. He may have been applying—or attempting to apply—many of the lessons learned in Syria, but his conduct of urban warfare in Mariupol has been unremarkable in terms of its success, speed, and cost in casualties. There is no reason to think that Dvornikov had been selected to command in Syria because of any skill or theoretical work on urban warfare, for that matter. He commanded the Aleppo campaign because it was Russia’s major campaign during his tenure in Syria, not as a specific appointment. The tactics and approaches used by Russian forces in both Syria and Ukraine are not unique to Dvornikov or any other individual Russian commander. Neither are they particularly effective.

Dvornikov is the natural choice of military district commander to command current Russian operations in Ukraine due to his command of the primary Russian area of operations and his seniority. Dvornikov’s command of the SMD from 2016 to 2022 grants him the greatest familiarity with operations in eastern Ukraine, as he oversaw the largely frozen conflict in Donbas in that period and is the direct commander of the primary Russian forces in the region—the 8th Combined Arms Army and forces of Russia’s proxy Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Dvornikov has commanded the Donbas and southern axes since the beginning of the current Russian invasion on February 24, and his forces have achieved the greatest successes of the initial period of the war. Had Putin chosen another officer to command the overall war effort now that he has condensed it to a focus on Dvornikov’s area of responsibility he would almost certainly have had to relieve Dvornikov of his command. Considering that Dvornikov’s performance in command was no worse, and in some ways better, than the performances of his lower-ranked colleagues, such a decision would have been odd indeed.

The Kremlin’s belated appointment of a single overall commander in Ukraine will not automatically solve Russian command, logistics, and morale issues, and Dvornikov faces several ongoing operations that may exceed his span of control.
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Zelensky's latest address. Threading that needle masterfully.

The key task both today and every day at this time is concrete defensive measures. A concrete increase in our ability to repel any attacks by Russian troops. I am dealing with this issue almost around the clock. I'm sure people see it, too. Just as they see that the military and technical capabilities of the enemy are still very high. Yes, Ukrainians are incomparably braver. Our Armed Forces are beating the occupiers with wisdom and well-thought-out tactics inaccessible to the Russian military.

But when it comes to the necessary weapons, we still depend on the supply, on our partners.

Unfortunately, we are not getting as much as we need to end this war sooner. To completely destroy the enemy on our land. And to fulfill those tasks that are obvious to each of our people. In particular, to unblock Mariupol.

If we got jets and enough heavy armored vehicles, the necessary artillery, we would be able to do it. But...

We still have to agree on this. We still have to persuade. We still have to squeeze out the necessary decisions. I am sure that we will get almost everything we need. But not only time is being lost. The lives of Ukrainians are being lost. Lives that can no longer be returned.

And this is also the responsibility of those who still keep the weapons Ukraine needs in their armory. The responsibility that will forever remain in history.

Just as our gratitude will remain in history. Gratitude to those states and politicians who really helped. Who did not waste time. Who didn’t bargain when life depended on help.
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Sarkozy endorsed Macron and said Le Pen would be a national disaster. It's the equivalent of the 1982 GOP backing the Dems against the 2022 GOP.

Looks like a lot of people in France want to avoid the Dump Disgrace.
 
bronconick said:
Russia Says Ukraine War Meant to End U.S. Quest for World 'Domination' (msn.com)

Yeah, that makes sense.
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They still see the "westernization" of the world (ie: USA-everything) as evil and a loss of their culture for the "American" way. Ukraine was starting to reap the benefits of EU trade, become less "soviet" and more European, and Putin and Friends are offended.

Which is so weird because at the height of the cold war, western decadence was highly sought after within the Soviet way of life.


Putin and Friends also enjoy a "Animal Farm" kingdom with the Russian citizens, because everyone is free, but some are more free than others. If the western way was so good, just why are the ogliarchs jetting off to Italy, Spain, and Greece to enjoy the western life while telling their citizens back home it's awful?
 
aparch said:
They still see the "westernization" of the world (ie: USA-everything) as evil and a loss of their culture for the "American" way. Ukraine was starting to reap the benefits of EU trade, become less "soviet" and more European, and Putin and Friends are offended.

Which is so weird because at the height of the cold war, western decadence was highly sought after within the Soviet way of life.


Putin and Friends also enjoy a "Animal Farm" kingdom with the Russian citizens, because everyone is free, but some are more free than others. If the western way was so good, just why are the ogliarchs jetting off to Italy, Spain, and Greece to enjoy the western life while telling their citizens back home it's awful?
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Let's be clear here, they don't actually "see" that, they use that as the excuse for what they do. Just like we did- especially in Central and South America.

If "Americanization" was the real problem, a better solution would be to offer a better alternative instead of forcing them to follow vladdy by murdering a lot of people. It's not as if the flaws in our system have far better ways of doing it.
 
MichVandal said:
Let's be clear here, they don't actually "see" that, they use that as the excuse for what they do. Just like we did- especially in Central and South America.

If "Americanization" was the real problem, a better solution would be to offer a better alternative instead of forcing them to follow vladdy by murdering a lot of people. It's not as if the flaws in our system have far better ways of doing it.
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It's a mix. The justification of their invasion is cynical and fraudulent. But the anti-Westernism they are tapping into is widespread in the Third World and China and, if not "well-founded," at least not very surprising after 500 years of exploitation. The West holds about the same reputation in the Third World as Marxism does here. The image of Marxism that comes to our minds is Gulag Archipelago. Likewise, the image of the West that comes to their mind is the Belgian Congo.

So while it's a ridiculous dodge, it's not something that the whole world will just laugh off.
 
Kepler said:
It's a mix. The justification of their invasion is cynical and fraudulent. But the anti-Westernism they are tapping into is widespread in the Third World and China and, if not "well-founded," at least not very surprising after 500 years of exploitation. The West holds about the same reputation in the Third World as Marxism does here. The image of Marxism that comes to our minds is Gulag Archipelago. Likewise, the image of the West that comes to their mind is the Belgian Congo.

So while it's a ridiculous dodge, it's not something that the whole world will just laugh off.
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There's a HUGE difference between becoming Western and US influence. Ukraine is leaning toward the rest of the EU, and NATO encompasses that. Most NATO countries have great contempt for the US, which is quite fair. Heck, finding people who hate the US doesn't take a trip to Russia- you can find that easily in the Caribbean, and Cuba isn't what I'm talking about.

Not to say that many EU countries have their own 20th Century disaster countries around the world- most have left an African country deep in a revolution of some type. But they have not really done what we have around the world.

None the less, if it was the true and real reason, offering a better alternative is both cheaper and less deadly than forcing your way into a country, murdering people along the way. It's not as if the West can't be improved on. So the simple fact that they invaded and have gone out of their way to kill people pretty much debunks that reason as being valid.
 
MichVandal said:
There's a HUGE difference between becoming Western and US influence.
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I don't get the comparison. I was saying that Russia and China and most of Africa and the Middle East have a ton (barrels, if you will) of pent up hate for the West for a bunch of reasons, some good some stupid:
  • colonialism and gunboat diplomacy
  • international capitalism
  • modernity
  • liberalism
  • secularism
They don't distinguish between hating France or the the Netherlands or Germany or anyone in the Anglosphere. We're all part of the same Roundeye Demonic Conspiracy. It's a good hound to release to distract their populations, or the people whose raw materials they want to exploit, from their own sins.
 
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Kepler said:
I don't get the comparison. I was saying that Russia and China and most of Africa and the Middle East have a ton (barrels, if you will) of pent up hate for the West for a bunch of reasons, some good some stupid:
  • colonialism and gunboat diplomacy
  • international capitalism
  • modernity
  • liberalism
  • secularism
They don't distinguish between hating France or the the Netherlands or Germany or anyone in the Anglosphere. We're all part of the same Roundeye Demonic Conspiracy. It's a good hound to release to distract their populations, or the people whose raw materials they want to exploit, from their own sins.
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While that exists, I also think the russian version of it is BS, especially as justification to invade Ukraine.

The actual reason has more to do with oil (and a pipeline) and resources as well as blood lust.

There's a difference between Ghana or Chile and Russia in this case. For Russia, it's mostly propaganda hate, especially since they aspire to a lot of what is in the west (consumerism mostly). And other than Germany, there hasn't been any action taken against Russia in the last 120 years from the West.

And I would not put the Middle East in anyone's Russia corner, other than from the leaders- they have not been kind to any single country in terms of the population.

Again, if the fear of Westernization is the actual reason, this is the exact opposite of a good idea to squash it. This makes Ukrainian hate of russia quite concrete, and if they somehow make it out of this, being closer to the EU is going to happen.
 
Pooty done fuuuuuucked up.

Meanwhile, Le Pen wants closer ties with Russia and an end to the sanctions.

It is a battle for the soul of the world: the Right against all the rest of us.

End the Right.
 
Finland's PMILF is essentially saying now that Finland is all in. She's going to tell Parliament screw it, have you seen Ukraine? Meanwhile, Sweden's population is over 60% in favor of joining NATO.

Interesting both countries are saying a referendum is not needed and when they say that they nod towards the UK as in "look what happens when the morons get involved."
 
Kepler said:
Finland's PMILF is essentially saying now that Finland is all in. She's going to tell Parliament screw it, have you seen Ukraine? Meanwhile, Sweden's population is over 60% in favor of joining NATO.

Interesting both countries are saying a referendum is not needed and when they say that they nod towards the UK as in "look what happens when the morons get involved."
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That is an excellent take. Britain went full Dump on the bit when they split from the EU.
 
France24 has embedded reporters with pro-Russian separatists. That's pretty insanely brave/crazy. The second they see something they shouldn't they are going to fall out a window.
 
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