Grand unified 2020 election thread

[Kepler]

No one seems to know where it is coming from or when the votes came in. And they have been saying 15 minutes for at least an hour now.

Still votes to count in Pima as well which Biden is doing better in.

Either way it is going to be close and no one seems surprised about it at all.

Pima is Tucson and UA so yes, more blue.

 

[Kepler]

These overnight guys on CNN are really good. Harry Enten of 538 is one of them, not sure who the other is. Chris Cuomo is the hairdo. I get the feeling on the overnight they assume the audience is political junkies so they don't dumb it down.

 

[Jimjamesak]

She's awful.

I just want to yell “IT’S RACISM YOU DUMMY” every time she bleets about how the Democrats keep losing blue collar whites.

 

[Kepler]

I just want to yell “IT’S RACISM YOU DUMMY” every time she bleets about how the Democrats keep losing blue collar whites.

I just hate how nakedly self-serving she is. She's our Susan Collins. I wish we still had that MO seat but I'm glad she's not in our caucus anymore.

 

[Jimjamesak]

CNN continues to do the right thing: they are not repeating Dump's yowling. They note it is happening and then just go back to substance.

I'm not thrilled about the Senate but really if we have excreted Dump I got 93% of what I wanted. McConnell leading a GOP Senate is just back to the old business as usual Plutocratic theft by the cons. I can handle that. It's not fascism, it's just boring old corruption.

If we get two runoffs in Georgia there’s still a chance at 50-50.

I echo the thought that the huge Trump turnout fueled a lot of the Senate races and I wonder if Republican turnout will decline for those races (if we get two), especially if it’s a defeated Trump (knock on wood).

 

[Handyman]

John King's understudy is making the case why Pennsylvania is going to flip. Besides the fact that Philly and Pittsburgh are still counting tons of votes Biden has been shrinking the margins in red counties too. Even in the Red areas the absentee is skewing Biden.

 

[Kepler]

If we get two runoffs in Georgia there’s still a chance at 50-50.

Need 'em both though unless an absolute miracle comeback happens with the Creepy Sexter.

F-ckin' Iowa. F-ckin' Maine. What is their major malfunction?

 

[Jimjamesak]

I just hate how nakedly self-serving she is. She's our Susan Collins. I wish we still had that MO seat but I'm glad she's not in our caucus anymore.

She’s from St. Louis, par for the course for that city...

 

[Kepler]

She’s from St. Louis, par for the course for that city...

I have literally no fix on what "from St. Louis" means. All I know about the city is that delta black guys created the blues from jazz there, and then racists murdered some wealthy blacks in East St. Louis in the 20s like in Topeka, and that The Cardinal Way is horsesh-t.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Need 'em both though unless an absolute miracle comeback happens with the Creepy Sexter.

F-ckin' Iowa. F-ckin' Maine. What is their major malfunction?

Angry older white dudes somehow get motivated by Trump. And they reside heavily in places like Iowa and Maine.

 

[Handyman]

Need 'em both though unless an absolute miracle comeback happens with the Creepy Sexter.

F-ckin' Iowa. F-ckin' Maine. What is their major malfunction?

Well there is still a lot of NC ballots out I believe so it isnt like he cant come back but it would be tough.

I am already sick of Arizona. Chances are Trump probably gets within 50k in this next dump and then we wont hear anything until tomorrow night. By then we will know GA and likely Pennsylvania is what everyone cares about.

 

[Kepler]

BTW Jim, what is the deal with Alaska? Is this another sled dog thing? Do they hand count ballots because there's no electricity? Even then it's just 8 people, why don't you just do show of hands?

 

[state of hockey]

John King's understudy is making the case why Pennsylvania is going to flip. Besides the fact that Philly and Pittsburgh are still counting tons of votes Biden has been shrinking the margins in red counties too. Even in the Red areas the absentee is skewing Biden.

This was certainly the case in Wisconsin. Milwaukee county was done reporting and Biden’s lead was about 7-8 thousand? Wound up taking it by 21 k.

AZ is a different story though. They’ve been voting by mail or drop off for a while, republicans take advantage of it too.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Well there is still a lot of NC ballots out I believe so it isnt like he cant come back but it would be tough.

I am already sick of Arizona. Chances are Trump probably gets within 50k in this next dump and then we wont hear anything until tomorrow night. By then we will know GA and likely Pennsylvania is what everyone cares about.

Could you imagine the meltdowns from the campaigns and the media if they were waiting on Alaska like this?

“Next week?!? You won’t start counting until NEXT WEEK?!?”

lol

 

[Kepler]

Is ME-2 final?

 

[Handyman]

Angry older white dudes somehow get motivated by Trump. And they reside heavily in places like Iowa and Maine.

I read something, might have been here but it might have been a talking head (honestly I am so wiped mentally I forgot what day it was like 20 times today) but perhaps the midterms weren't actually a repudiation of Trump like we all thought it was. Perhaps that is more a function of what the electorate is like WITHOUT him. That is why polling is so off because pollsters have an issue dealing with the "Cult of Personality" of Trump. His strong following often breaks conventional wisdom and gets people to vote for him who likely wouldn't vote (or even wouldn't vote GOP) and that is just not something they can account for.

Speaking of that...for all the crap people seem to be giving 538...if you go back to his final write up he said if there is a 3% polling error that helps Trump Biden still likely wins but it is interesting. Also said that would lead to likely not winning the Senate. Of course the haters ignore all that. 538 isnt the issue, the data they get is the issue. I think Nate would do well to remind people of that from time to time.

 

[Kepler]

AZ is a different story though. They’ve been voting by mail or drop off for a while, republicans take advantage of it too.

Maricopa County is also very diverse. There are parts of downtown Phoenix that make Portland look like Kansas. Then there are very, very white suburbs like Scottsdale and Peoria that make Kansas look like Brooklyn. To give you an idea how bizarre it is, there's a town called Anthem which was founded by Don Draperesque 50s swingers and which has now become a white trash sh-t hole that would fit in in South Boston.

 

[Jimjamesak]

BTW Jim, what is the deal with Alaska? Is this another sled dog thing? Do they hand count ballots because there's no electricity? Even then it's just 8 people, why don't you just do show of hands?

It’s 130k votes first off.

Basically it boils down to a few reasons:

1. Ballots don’t have to be in until the 13th, the 18th if from overseas (relevant for military and college students (important to maintain Alaska residency even if at school so you qualify for the PFD and ACPSE loans)).

2. They want to check to see if anyone who sent in a ballot voted in person on Election Day (thereby disqualifying their absentee ballot).

3. Mail service sucks here. It wasn’t great before the shenanigans.

4. Alaska is big.

Edit: I should mention it’s always been like that for at least 20+ years. It’s just usually there’s not 130k votes left to count. In fact, it’s rare that absentee ballots would be the deciding factor in a race.

 

[Kepler]

This CNN panel is hilarious because the 2 white people are VERY uncomfortable.

 

[Jimjamesak]

I have literally no fix on what "from St. Louis" means. All I know about the city is that delta black guys created the blues from jazz there, and then racists murdered some wealthy blacks in East St. Louis in the 20s like in Topeka, and that The Cardinal Way is horsesh-t.

I’ve always thought of it as loud, racist, cop loving, annoying Cardinals fans.

And Nelly. He made “Hot in Here”, he gets a pass.