I have watched Yale in the same way I've watched most other top teams
drunk?
SNIFF THE NUTMEG HATERS!
Why are so many people upset that Yale is ranked No 1 in the polls? They're No 1 in both the PairWise and KRACH ratings.
Get your shots in now because you'll look silly doing so after Wednesday's shellacking.![]()
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Why are so many people upset that Yale is ranked No 1 in the polls? They're No 1 in both the PairWise and KRACH ratings.
You (and many others) underestimate how difficult it is to put up a 10-1 record, even against the schedule Yale has faced. A team that should win 95% of its games would still only have an 89% chance at being 10-1 or better. If you want to argue that Yale is a quality of team that should only win 80% of its games (good but not great) against its schedule, then the probability that they're sitting at 10-1 is only 32%. If Yale were really getting that many "lucky" wins, I think there would be a whole lot more close games!And maybe if Yale put up the same numbers playing a ranked team or two we wouldn't be having this discussion, but the only ranked teams they have played are the other ECAC teams with inflated records because they beat up on Harvard and Qunni
You (and many others) underestimate how difficult it is to put up a 10-1 record, even against the schedule Yale has faced. A team that should win 95% of its games would still only have an 89% chance at being 10-1 or better. If you want to argue that Yale is a quality of team that should only win 80% of its games (good but not great) against its schedule, then the probability that they're sitting at 10-1 is only 32%. If Yale were really getting that many "lucky" wins, I think there would be a whole lot more close games!
Fortunately, KRACH does not fall prey to this fallacy, and it dispassionately calculates that they are likely to be the best team in the country - even after taking their schedule strength into account. If you say, "sure, they have the #1 ranking, but look at their SOS," then you're double-counting their SOS, because it's already been accounted for.
You (and many others) underestimate how difficult it is to put up a 10-1 record, even against the schedule Yale has faced.
If you want to argue that Yale is a quality of team that should only win 80% of its games (good but not great) against its schedule, then the probability that they're sitting at 10-1 is only 32%.
If Yale were really getting that many "lucky" wins, I think there would be a whole lot more close games!
Except that KRACH (and PWR, et al - not to mention the polls) says that it does.Your premise is wrong. Nobody is arguing how difficult it is to be 10-1, what people are arguing about is being 10-1 against a weak schedule doesn't make you the best team in the country.
Nope - I read your opinion loud and clear. I just disagree with it - and was trying to explain to you why it is perfectly reasonable to think that a team with a 10-1 record against Yale's schedule SHOULD be considered the #1 team in the country. I'm shocked - shocked! - that you're not open to considering my argument.I don't want to argue that Yale should win 80% of their games. I want to argue that playing the schedule they do, if they want to be considered #1 they should win 100% of their games.
No one said they were getting lucky wins. A win over Harvard isn't lucky unless your AIC.
You appear to have a very solid understanding of probability but your reading comprehension could use some work.