... And with an outside chance (very outside) for home ice for NCAAs...
A 'new' thought occurs to me about this this morning:
I've been paying attention to the NPI rankings and ignoring the Pairwise, because in just about all cases, the NPI decides the individual Pairwise comparisons, and the NPI and Pairwise end up 'agreeing' in the order of the teams' ranking. But....
If you look at the rankings as they are this morning, Colgate is just ahead of Minnesota for third, and Minnesota is a good deal ahead of Wisconsin for fourth, and for the last slot for home ice. Right now (even though the USCHO page of underlying head-to-head comparisons looks to be very out-of-date, aka wrong) Minnesota wins the Pairwise head-to-head over Wisconsin based on a better 'common opponents' record (I assume) and a better NPI, even though Wisconsin is 'plus 2' on head-to-head games played.
If Wisconsin were to beat Minnesota one more time in the WCHA tournament, they'd go to 'plus 3' in the head-to-head, and win the Pairwise comparison, regardless of NPI or 'common opponents'. And if the Pairwise/NPI were to otherwise end up like it is right now - Minnesota 4th in NPI and Wisconsin 5th - flipping that head-to-head would give Wisconsin 4th in the Pairwise, and presumably home ice.
LOTS of ifs there: Colgate would have to stay ahead of Minn in the rankings, Wisconsin would have to stay ahead of Northeastern, and Wisconsin would have to play and beat Minn in the WCHA tournament. But it is a path to home ice that doesn't depend on Wisconsin catching Minn or Colgate in NPI.