Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

[WiscDC]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

London's arena seats 9,100 for hockey and averaged 8,991/game last season, so it's comparable to the high end of college hockey venues and crowds. But they don't have a band, so they're automatically knocked down several pegs.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

I don't think you'll catch much flack for saying that on this site. I have to agree with you. It sounds like something a lot of casual Canadian hockey fans like to say. I'm talking about the kind who say that 90% of the NHL is Canadian and pretty much everyone is either from Europe or played in the CHL. Unlike their more knowledgeable counterparts, they don't know that that idea is stuck in the time of Red Berenson or Ken Dryden.

I don't think the "idea" is a archaic misnomer at all. Dvorak's father is absolutely correct. Although roughly 31% of current NHL players played college hockey and former college players in the NHL increased by 43% from 1999-2012 (i.e. College Hockey Inc.); statistically the CHL is still the preferred and direct route to the NHL for top prospects.

IMO the increase in NCAA players playing in the NHL in recent years is mainly due to the effect the CBA has had on college hockey, which provided NHL teams with more draft flexibility and less financial burden with NHL draft picks playing in the NCAA. The exclusive CBA negotiating window puts a lot of pressure on NHL teams to sign NCAA players earlier than later to avoid the financial risk of losing that player.

Which NHL route is better, the NCAA or CHL, has been debated ad infinitum/ad nauseum, but IMO it's really up to what the player values most. Given there's a very small percentage of players that make the big stage, the NCAA route which often includes a full scholarship, seems to be a wise choice. However, the CHL offers an early age start, longer season, emulates an intense NHL style of hockey, some CIS educational benefits (not nearly as extensive as the NCAA package) AND statistically a higher percentage chance than the NCAA of playing in the NHL.



Since 1960, NHL teams have chosen to invest their early round picks on CHL or European players than on NCAA players. NHL% = Percent of NCAA picks selected in that round who played in 100 or more NHL games, Pick% = Percent of total NCAA picks who were selected in this round.

However, breaking the numbers down into decades, in recent years more NHL teams have drafted NCAA players in earlier rounds. The increased developmental progress of American born hockey players, the CBA and the reduction in the NHL draft to nine rounds are inferential factors in this change.

 

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

Is Dovark's dad going to be an assistant coach/GM ala Gagner, or is this just one of the regular London deal$?

On the better route to the NHL...you are comparing an apple to an orange at best. While the CHL verses the NCAA comparision has a similar quantity of teams, there really are many more legitimate teams in the CHL then NCAA hockey. When you get into which programs do not have a full assortment of scholarships, which play in high school level facilities, which play in mediocre to poor conferences, you cut in half the quantity of NCAA teams that a high end NHL potential prospect can/will consider. While I know there is certainly disparity between the top end (Kitchner, London, ect) CHL teams and the bottom...it is no where near that of what you'll see in the NCAA. My point is that if you compare the legit NCAA teams (and not the DIII level programs masquerading as D1), the NCAA's ratio of placing player into the next level is pretty favorable. If you want to compare all 59 D1 teams to the 60 CHL teams...then sure the CHL has a better sucess ratio.

Does Cavallini's kid still get a preferred walkon spot now that the Mission pipeline has spung a leak?

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

Does Cavallini's kid still get a preferred walkon spot now that the Mission pipeline has spung a leak?

It's not the Mission's fault, and there is no need to ruin a recruiting relationship with a program over something like this.

As for the timeline, the kid participated in a 4th of July parade as a member of the Chicago Steel (where he was supposed to play this season). Two different people noted privately that UW and Dvorak's family weren't in a good spot. I have no idea why. One said, "Family relationship with Wisconsin soured and London was relentless." Other said, "Dvoraks relationship with UW was rocky."

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

It's not the Mission's fault, and there is no need to ruin a recruiting relationship with a program over something like this.

As for the timeline, the kid participated in a 4th of July parade as a member of the Chicago Steel (where he was supposed to play this season). Two different people noted privately that UW and Dvorak's family weren't in a good spot. I have no idea why. One said, "Family relationship with Wisconsin soured and London was relentless." Other said, "Dvoraks relationship with UW was rocky."

Well, he is gone and it sucks.

Where does that leave us for 2014, and what are the coaches going to do? Could we see a D to F switch ala Ryan Little? Who is out there to pick up that will be decent?

 

[Badgerice]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

I don't believe for one minute about the relationship between UW and the Dvorak's was rocky? I heard Christian's dad is whacked and just loves any attention. He's your typical dad that never played a sport, eats to much and lives his life through his son. I heard his advisor told him to go to college but he had his mind made up. I did hear that Christian had to do summer school this past summer. So maybe he lost interest in an education and wanted to play juniors. Which would get him ready for "would you like to super size your order" after his junior career.

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

I don't believe for one minute about the relationship between UW and the Dvorak's was rocky? I heard Christian's dad is whacked and just loves any attention. He's your typical dad that never played a sport, eats to much and lives his life through his son. I heard his advisor told him to go to college but he had his mind made up. I did hear that Christian had to do summer school this past summer. So maybe he lost interest in an education and wanted to play juniors. Which would get him ready for "would you like to super size your order" after his junior career.

I guess I'd be interested to hear why he would put in the effort to go to summer school to improve his standing if he was going to give up on higher education just weeks later. What happened from July 4th to now that changed his mind? Did he do poorly in summer school? Did something happen with the UW staff? I doubt there is anything that London said over the past few weeks (legally) that could have changed his mind. The kid committed a year ago, fully knowing the development paths of Wisconsin, the other schools that recruited him and London who owned his rights at that time. What changed, what happened?

 

[Badgerice]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

Chuck, you're a creative reporter maybe you could find those answers out. If the OHL was the best route to get drafted then kids like Nick Schmaltz would leave GB for Windsor. Maybe he didn't like the team in Chicago? If they were going to be a crappy team, he might think it could hurt his draft status. FYI the kid isn't even ranked in Red line yet.

 

[WiscDC]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

To throw another wrench into the "CHL vs NCAA" discussion (and I do agree that each is better for different players) - plenty of CHL players who end up in the NHL would have also made it if they went the NCAA route, and vice versa.

The "idea" I was talking about is really more what you hear from casual Canadian fans who know what junior hockey is but don't know all the ins and outs of North American amateur hockey, not people involved in the process. It just hit my ears the same way comments from fans who say 90% of the NHL is Canadian do. (It always seems to be either the correct number or "90%" - weird.) I recognize that the CHL is better for some players, but a player dropping his college commitment at one of the more prestigeous programs and citing better development opportunities in the OHL as the reason leaves me scratching my head.

Which place has more of an "NHL style" is also debatable. More frequent games, half shields, and "five for fighting" on one side. Grown men and more system-oriented (that's just from what I've read) play on the other.

 

[solovsfett]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

To throw another wrench into the "CHL vs NCAA" discussion (and I do agree that each is better for different players) - plenty of CHL players who end up in the NHL would have also made it if they went the NCAA route, and vice versa.

The "idea" I was talking about is really more what you hear from casual Canadian fans who know what junior hockey is but don't know all the ins and outs of North American amateur hockey, not people involved in the process. It just hit my ears the same way comments from fans who say 90% of the NHL is Canadian do. (It always seems to be either the correct number or "90%" - weird.) I recognize that the CHL is better for some players, but a player dropping his college commitment at one of the more prestigeous programs and citing better development opportunities in the OHL as the reason leaves me scratching my head.

Which place has more of an "NHL style" is also debatable. More frequent games, half shields, and "five for fighting" on one side. Grown men and more system-oriented (that's just from what I've read) play on the other.

The NHL-Style thing is vastly overplayed as a concept or reason for a kid going to the CHL, at least as far as Wisconsin is concerned. Eaves has installed a system that mirrors about a dozen NHL teams and it's been that way with him from day 1.

I wonder exactly what was "rocky" about the relationship w/Dvorak? What COULD make it rocky? I mean he's got a full scholarship, he's coming in when promised. I don't get it. Something doesn't add up, unless $ suddenly became the big draw.

 

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

It's not the Mission's fault, and there is no need to ruin a recruiting relationship with a program over something like this.

Chuck...my first and last sentence were intended to be dripping with sarcasim.

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

Chuck...my first and last sentence were intended to be dripping with sarcasim.

I should have known, my fault.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

man, I may take some flack for this but here goes
"The Wisconsin State Journal's Andy Baggot spoke with Dvorak's father, who felt signing with London SLIGHTLY improved his son's chances of reaching the NHL."

You missed the word "slightly", for what it's worth.

I can't think of how or why the Eaves/Family relationship would all of a sudden sour. The kid signed a year ago, the family knew what was ahead as far as the required schoolwork and all the ncaa rules. The kid is entitled to change his mind. I was all set to go to UW Madison, but as the day got closer, I just felt that it was not a good fit for me and I changed my mind. It could be that for him or $$$. Maybe the amount of schoolwork is less @ London than UW. Who knows. Hopefully this does not affect the other Mission recruits. Eaves also has some time fill the hole, though only Chuck would know if there are any Dvoraks unsigned at this point for that recruiting yr class. What about those OSU decommits?

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

What about those OSU decommits?

The only forward available is Tyler Sheehy (Burnsville), and I was told the Badgers aren't real high on him. He did visit campus a while back, however (before committing to OSU). Never had a UW offer.

 

[markwojo]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

Unfortunately...Ryan MacInnis signed with Kitchner a few days ago although I never felt he was a realistic option for UW...more like wishful thinking.

I would think the Badgers should be ecstatic to get a kid like Sheehy to come at this point. Even with Dvorak, we were woefully thin on quantity for '14/15. Best case scenerio, with Dvorak we were only going to be at 11 forwards heading into the 14/15 season and that was assuming no one would leave early for the pros (which with Kerdiles and LaBate is dubious at best). Now we are down to 10....in the absolute best case scenerio and 2 of those 10 are Cavallini who is a walkon and McGuire who once the dust settled from his commitment has been nothing more then a gigantic question mark in his developmental progression. We at the absolute minimum should be trying to bring in 4 forwards a couple of which (again at the absolute least) should be higher end. During Eaves tenure, our recruiting has been a polar opposite of our current situation where numbers always seemed to be a few to many. Hope we can find a few late bloomers in the USHL, BCHL, or AJHL.

 

[solovsfett]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

You missed the word "slightly", for what it's worth.

I can't think of how or why the Eaves/Family relationship would all of a sudden sour. The kid signed a year ago, the family knew what was ahead as far as the required schoolwork and all the ncaa rules. The kid is entitled to change his mind. I was all set to go to UW Madison, but as the day got closer, I just felt that it was not a good fit for me and I changed my mind. It could be that for him or $$$. Maybe the amount of schoolwork is less @ London than UW. Who knows. Hopefully this does not affect the other Mission recruits. Eaves also has some time fill the hole, though only Chuck would know if there are any Dvoraks unsigned at this point for that recruiting yr class. What about those OSU decommits?

good catch, I DID miss that.

I don't think at this time there's a replacement available (of equal talent), however maybe there's a minnesota hs senior-to-be that is looking to jump straight to D-1 that can be a good-to-great 3 or 4-year guy?

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

good catch, I DID miss that.

I don't think at this time there's a replacement available (of equal talent), however maybe there's a minnesota hs senior-to-be that is looking to jump straight to D-1 that can be a good-to-great 3 or 4-year guy?

I'm putting together a post that will outline some potential options. Theres still talent available, but you might have to go off the board a little. Might have to take some risks. I'll likely publish in the morning.

Edit: might be later in the day Tuesday. Started writing when I got home around midnight, just looked at the clock and it's almost 4 am and I'm not done. A little lengthier than I had originally planned. Some intriguing options left for 2014.

 

[solovsfett]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

I'm putting together a post that will outline some potential options. Theres still talent available, but you might have to go off the board a little. Might have to take some risks. I'll likely publish in the morning.

awesome, thanks Chuck!

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Recruiting Vol. XXVI: Make him an offer he can't refuse

good catch, I DID miss that.

I don't think at this time there's a replacement available (of equal talent), however maybe there's a minnesota hs senior-to-be that is looking to jump straight to D-1 that can be a good-to-great 3 or 4-year guy?

I thought the use of "slight" was the Dad's way of letting UW down gently.

I'd love to see a few late blooming Canadians end up on the roster.

 

[GBBadger14]

I'm putting together a post that will outline some potential options. Theres still talent available, but you might have to go off the board a little. Might have to take some risks. I'll likely publish in the morning.

Awesome, I was just about to ask you for a couple possible names. Looking forward to it, thanks.