Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

We all know about hindsight and I was critical at times towards Jurusick, but I wonder if Hayton (at this point) is any better than what Matt might have been this year? Always fun to speculate.

Sort of ironic that Matt had an .892 SV% on the season last year, identical to Kyle's at the moment...

Kyle's B1G numbers are ugly. 3-3-1 3.33GA and .870SV%. Overall 7-6-2 2.88GA .892SV%.

Courtesy of the weekend Jack is now 3-1 1.95 GA .919 SV%. In the B1G he's 1-0 1.46GA .961SV%

Jack was the perfect remedy on Saturday, so calm it's hard to believe. When he stoned Ramsey on that Penalty shot I think it really gave the boys confidence that they could get the job done.

Tishke was amazing at the end and received lots of praise and all the D were much better, but Kalynuk and Linhart were outstanding throughout the game vs. the top goofs. They were physically over matched against some of those big boys, but they wasted no time in winning pucks back and getting them out. And Jake's patience to get that puck through for the GWG was a thing of beauty.


Nobody in their right mind should give the Badgers a chance against the Golden Juggernaut this weekend.

Good.

 

[MadCityRich]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

]Sort of ironic that Matt had an .892 SV% on the season last year, identical to Kyle's at the moment...[/B]

Kyle's B1G numbers are ugly. 3-3-1 3.33GA and .870SV%. Overall 7-6-2 2.88GA .892SV%.

Courtesy of the weekend Jack is now 3-1 1.95 GA .919 SV%. In the B1G he's 1-0 1.46GA .961SV%

I had a hunch, but was too lazy to look it up. Thanks for posting.

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Article on goalies by Todd M. https://t.co/tdNZhwD5wI

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

As expected, Trent Frederic was named to WJ preliminary roster.

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

As expected, Trent Frederic was named to WJ preliminary roster.

Article on the juniors and Trent. Plus Todd Milewski is tweeting about pulling Olympians from the WJ team...

https://t.co/Iiat4akAaS

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Predictions for this weekend?

I am hopeful we can win at least one game. I think we can play with any team if the defense cuts down on the turnovers.

 

[solovsfett]

Predictions for this weekend?

I am hopeful we can win at least one game. I think we can play with any team if the defense cuts down on the turnovers.

Split. I think Berry can offset defensive lapses one night and Frederic is beginning to light it up now as well

 

[MadCityRich]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Split. I think Berry can offset defensive lapses one night and Frederic is beginning to light it up now as well

I also think a split. On a selfish note, I hope the "W" side of the split is Saturday, but I might go Friday as well. Hopefully, this weekend with the Irish (you hate 'em or love 'em) will bring bigger crowds. This team deserves bigger, rowdier (?) crowds than there has been. I'll try to do my part.

EDIT: I went on the UW site and Saturday night looks really good.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Predictions for this weekend?

I am hopeful we can win at least one game. I think we can play with any team if the defense cuts down on the turnovers.

This team is so skitzo. They could get swept, they could sweep, they could split. It all hinges on D zone play.

I kinda got sucked into going to the Buck's game Friday by my eldest son, I'd rather not go, but I'll do the good Dad thing go. I do not own anything Milwaukee Bucks orientated, is it in bad taste to wear something hockey orientated or do I just wear a green shirt and hope to blend in? I'll have to watch the Friday game on DVR Saturday AM and try to avoid noting the results. Also note the women's game is on FSN Friday afternoon, fire up those DVRs record that too for some quality hockey to watch.

 

[burd]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

This team is so skitzo. They could get swept, they could sweep, they could split. It all hinges on D zone play.

I kinda got sucked into going to the Buck's game Friday by my eldest son, I'd rather not go, but I'll do the good Dad thing go. I do not own anything Milwaukee Bucks orientated, is it in bad taste to wear something hockey orientated or do I just wear a green shirt and hope to blend in?

Sioux jerseys/shirts are well received in any arena. And you will feel . . . elevated.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Watched most of the replay of the goofs and ND this week as I hadn't really seen the micks play lately. Notre Dame plays a little different system but they remind me a lot of some of Eaves' veteran teams in that they are very disciplined in what they do, they do it correctly just about every time, and are just generally very hard to play against. (to me, one of the best qualities you can have.) Mostly all upperclassmen in the lineup, no real blazers, but plenty of guys with skill to hurt you given the chance. Tony talks a lot about playing as a group of 5- that's what they do. Not a big pressure forecheck, but always five guys sprinting back and in position. So that means chipping it in deep, going and getting it, sucking the forwards down, working it high and getting to the net. Rinse, repeat. Will take a lot of mental toughness to stick with it as they frustrate you consistently and have been very successful at controlling the pace of play. ND dictated pace at the gophers making them look slow, and they certainly aren't.

On the other hand, the Irish are doing it a little with smoke and mirrors, statistically. They have a very high PDO of 105.37, a Corsi for of 47.8 and a Fenwick of 46.7. Corsi and Fenwick much below 50 is pretty unusual for a team with even just a winning record. ND has played 6 road games @Rennselaer, @OSU, and @ MiSt winning them all. However they have yet to play a single game on a big sheet which is a bit of a different game. The Badgers have a lot of team speed, and it's possible that they can use the extra space to advantage to go around, or spread and penetrate the the Irish D. Helpful that the Badgers just played well on a big surface @MN last week.

Badgers haven't been swept all year, so I feel like the good Badgers will show up one night for sure. But can we see them both nights? This is really a playoff type series for Bucky. Win two and they will probably be solidly in the National picture. Split and they'll hang around the perimeter. Get swept and they'll be in rough shape for the second half. If the boys are ever going to make a statement, now would be the time.

Edit: For comparison, Badgers PDO is 100.24; Corsi-54.0; Fenwick-55.2.

 

[MadCityRich]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Sioux jerseys/shirts are well received in any arena. And you will feel . . . elevated.

As my adopted second team (as in, if WE don't make it I'm OK with you), that brought laughter burd....well done!

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

As my adopted second team (as in, if WE don't make it I'm OK with you), that brought laughter burd....well done!

This is just wrong on so many levels.


Wondering if Linus will be back in the lineup? Need him but don't want him if he's not 100% ready to go. He will be a big piece in the second half.

I thought Zimmer had a pretty good game. It's the first time in a while that he was able to effectively use his high-gear speed to make some plays, drawing a couple penalties on the goofs. If he can do more of that AND play better without the puck, he can really be an asset in the lineup.

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

OK Wisko, I know you stated this somewhere before, but what is PDO, Corsi, and Fenwick and what do they indicate?

 

[gwhinwi]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

OK Wisko, I know you stated this somewhere before, but what is PDO, Corsi, and Fenwick and what do they indicate?

Seconded. All these acronyms are just nuts to figure out.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Sioux jerseys/shirts are well received in any arena. And you will feel . . . elevated.

Thankfully he found another friend to go with so I am out. For the record I have very little green in my wardrobe, and even less maroon, just 1 shirt, a cool Mustang shirt I got as a gift.

Now I can get home from work tomorrow, watch the dvr'ed women's game, then the men's game live. Life is good.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

OK Wisko, I know you stated this somewhere before, but what is PDO, Corsi, and Fenwick and what do they indicate?

Sure, PDO is a team's Save % plus their Shot %. For example a team has a .900 sv% and scores on 10% of their shots on goal. PDO = 100. In the NHL (and probably in NCAA) this number always regresses toward 100 over time. So if your PDO is 106 it is unlikely your team can sustain that high save% and/or high shot% for a long time and it is likely one or both will drop some. Conversely if a team's PDO is 95 it is also unlikely overly bad goaltending and/or a very low shot % will remain over time. The team will play better D, a goalie will stop more, they'll get some more pucks to go in, something. What it indicates is a measure of how lucky a team has been in their games. Between 98-102 is in the ball park. Higher or lower and we might say a team has been very lucky/unlucky. ND has a very high PDO of 105.37. The Badgers have a very middling 100.24 PDO.


Corsi is simply a team's percentage of total shot attempts vs. their opponents shot attempts. If team A has 60 shot attempts and team B has 40 shot attempts for a total of 100 in the game, Team A has a 60 Corsi for, team B a 40 Corsi for. Fenwick works the same but it is based on unblocked shot attempts, so all blocked shots don't count in the math. What they both are a surrogate for is puck possession. Winning teams control the puck and play more than their opponent. Losing teams typically don't.

The Badgers are ranked 10th in Corsi and 8th in Fenwick. ND is ranked 47th in Corsi and 46th in Fenwick. They are one of only a couple teams with a winning record to be below 50 Corsi for.

 

[WiscDC]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

For anyone wondering, Corsi and Fenwick are names of people (which is why NHL.com went with abbreviations instead of those names). PDO doesn't stand for anything; it was made up by someone on a forum.

And as much as I appreciate the usefulness of watching for unsustainable rates of scoring or getting scored on, I have a hard time convincing myself of PDO's usefulness. Whenever I see an informative application of it, whoever's talking/writing always looks at save% and shooting% separately. After all, they're entirely unrelated. For example, a team shooting percentage of 14% shouldn't be seen as any more or less sustainable based on the performance of that team's goalie.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

Seconded. All these acronyms are just nuts to figure out.

Probably in part because Corsi, Fenwick, and PDO aren't acronyms for anything.

Corsi is named for for former Sabres (and Blues) goaltending coach Jim Corsi. The Guy (Tim Barnes alias Vic Ferrari) that came up with the stat had heard Buffalo's GM on the radio talking about tracking shot attempts as a way to gauge goalie workload. He didn't like the GM's name so looked at the Sabres website and liked Jim Corsi's name and mustache, so he called it Corsi. Very oddly, it turned out it was actually Jim Corsi who came up with the idea that his GM was talking about, so Vic Ferrari accidentally named it correctly.

Fenwick is named after Blogger Matt Fenwick who proposed the stat.

PDO is named after blogger Brian King's Counterstrike gaming alias.


It all makes perfect sense when you think about it.


Also DC posted on this while I was writing. But I'm leaving it.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey T*M2=NCA2*7

For anyone wondering, Corsi and Fenwick are names of people (which is why NHL.com went with abbreviations instead of those names). PDO doesn't stand for anything; it was made up by someone on a forum.

And as much as I appreciate the usefulness of watching for unsustainable rates of scoring or getting scored on, I have a hard time convincing myself of PDO's usefulness. Whenever I see an informative application of it, whoever's talking/writing always looks at save% and shooting% separately. After all, they're entirely unrelated. For example, a team shooting percentage of 14% shouldn't be seen as any more or less sustainable based on the performance of that team's goalie.

They aren't totally unconnected if you think about how the game is played. As an example if you have forwards all hanging out high in the zone waiting for breakouts they're likely to give up more odd man situations down low, making it tough on their own goalie. But they are also likely to get more odd man situations the the other way, giving them a higher shot %.


Also Todd tweeted earlier that Jack will get the nod tomorrow night between the pipes.