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Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

Sorry, got bigger things on my mind right now. Sincerely.
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

I've seen plenty of stupid Facebook posts saying possible 20". None of them use an actual weather agency as a source. Fake news that I'm sure grocery and department stores love.
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

state of hockey said:
I've seen plenty of stupid Facebook posts saying possible 20". None of them use an actual weather agency as a source. Fake news that I'm sure grocery and department stores love.
Click to expand...

That might have been it. No way it's happening.
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

Good stuff from Johnathan Yuhas:
I have had a few emails about this today and want to address this issue. First it is really irresponsible and not helpful to anyone when people post raw weather computer model information. The downside of social media is all the garbage that is out there. One of my FB friends was kind enough to send me this graphic pic 1 of the GFS model showing a historic snowfall for much of MN. The second pic ( pic 2 ) is the later GFS run of snow which is much less snowfall and I can tell you future runs will continue to show less and less snowfall.

This is an example to show how this works - if the temp is above 32 degrees the model will show 1" of rain and if below 32 degrees it will show 12" of snow. The models are showing over 1.5" of moisture for MN this Saturday but is it really going to be below 32 degrees and this all snow most likely no. One week ago on Sunday April 1 one of the most reliable models was showing 12" of snow for MSP on April 8 and 1.3" actually fell on April 8. The take away is catch the updated forecast but the odds for 12" of snow on Saturday in MSP are about 10% or less.

Get your weather from the National Weather Service or a reliable media source in TV or radio.

Jonathan Yuhas
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Picture 1: Link
Picture 2: Link
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

crap. I think I copied the wrong link. It's on his facebook page. I suppose if you're super interested, you can look it up :D
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

bigblue_dl said:
So you're saying there's a chance!

edit: How have they not figured out to put some kind of gradient into the models right around 32 degrees F? Seems like an easy fix.
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I'm guessing that's way more complex than you or I realize. The hardware these run on are usually the who's who of super computers. At least 10% of the worlds top 100 supercomputers are devoted to weather. There are definitely more since only their names aren't easily identifiable.
https://www.top500.org/list/2017/11/
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

dxmnkd316 said:
I'm guessing that's way more complex than you or I realize. The hardware these run on are usually the who's who of super computers. At least 10% of the worlds top 100 supercomputers are devoted to weather. There are definitely more since only their names aren't easily identifiable.
https://www.top500.org/list/2017/11/
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Still seems like adding a tolerance of some kind would be fairly easy programming, but I'm not a computer programmer so I have no idea.

I was just thinking, if the model is calling for 30 degrees, turn that into 50% chance it is 30 degrees, 20% chance it is 31 degrees, 20% chance it is 29 degrees, 5% chance it is 32 degrees, 5% chance it is 28 degrees, then average. This way, you take into account that they won't be exactly correct with their projections, and it softens the blow of the cliff event at 32 degrees F.
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

Northern Maine is reporting Snowmobiling is fantastic, mid January conditions. Yesterday was below 0, this morning 8f. Feet of snow on the trails. its bare here :)
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

bigblue_dl said:
Still seems like adding a tolerance of some kind would be fairly easy programming, but I'm not a computer programmer so I have no idea.

I was just thinking, if the model is calling for 30 degrees, turn that into 50% chance it is 30 degrees, 20% chance it is 31 degrees, 20% chance it is 29 degrees, 5% chance it is 32 degrees, 5% chance it is 28 degrees, then average. This way, you take into account that they won't be exactly correct with their projections, and it softens the blow of the cliff event at 32 degrees F.
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Yeah but this is recursive. It basically takes a point in time, calculates the entire database of conditions, sets that as the new data set, calculates it again, etc. so you really can’t do multiples like that. There are multiple models run that are then used to form an ensemble. But that’s about it.

But that’s just my dumba-s understanding of it.
 
Re: Winter Weather 2017-18 where EVERYONE argues.

I can’t remember the last time an actual blizzard warning was issued for Ramsey county. It could have been last year, I just don’t remember.
 
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