Re: Will the DII's ever get out of Limbo?
Even though the addition of 6 schools to DIII would give us a 12 team tournament, and the history is that the extra slot is unlikely to go to any of the 6 new teams? (except maybe St. A)
I can see this being true. You need to consider what a 12 team tournament would look like with the geographical restrictions we have to deal with. In an ideal world you would get...
#8 vs. #9 advanced vs. #1
#5 vs. #12 advanced vs. #4
#6 vs. #11 advanced vs. #3
#7 vs #10 advanced vs. #2
Except you can also have options where there are multiple play-in games feeding into the same quarterfinal, and multiple byes in a single quarterfinal. For example...
#1 vs. #5
#8 vs. #9 advanced to #4 vs. #12
#3 vs. #6
#7 vs. #10 advanced to #2 vs. #11
With cross-regional matchups not happening in the play-in round, the west would have to get 5 teams into the tournament to ensure two final four spots (two byes into Quarterfinal A, one bye and one play-in into Quarterfinal B). With only four teams, all four teams can find themselves in play-in games (see: 2010) playing down to a single regional.
Is it likely the west could get five teams in a 12 team tournament? Let's break it down:
Eastern AQs (5): ECAC-NE/E, SUNYAC, NESCAC, MASCAC.
Western AQs (3): MIAC, MCHA, NCHA
Eastern Guarantee (1): Pool B*
At-large: 3
*I'm giving a Pool B back in as I'm nearly 99% confident the 5 ECAC-W schools and the NE10 schools would get over the access ratio required to maintain a Pool B. Since no western teams could receive the Pool B, this would serve as another de-factor eastern bid - which would be the biggest initial problem for the west.
So with 9 spots in the tournament spoken for, we now have 3 spots remaining for at-large teams. Recent history has shown a pretty strong inclination towards 2 eastern teams and 1 western team when at-large spots have been available. This is especially true when given the insular schedule of the NCHA. That makes an 8-4 split more than likely most years. So the debate regarding whether all four teams would get a play-in or a bye would continue.
Since now awarding the west two FF spots would require
all eight eastern teams to be in a play-in game, the odds of the west getting this arrangement decrease significantly.
So, in summary: A 12 team tournament likely ensures an additional bid for the east via the continuation of Pool B past the MASCAC's AQ certification, and makes the chances of two western teams getting to the final four decrease significantly. Undoubtedly, the west would be very hesitant about allowing six eastern schools to jump into the mix, since the benefit would clearly come to the other eastern schools.