PerkyforPrez
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His character is what the president deems more important than record. Dilly Dilly
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WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
- Thread starter MissThundercat
- Start date
His character is what the president deems more important than record. Dilly Dilly
gfmorris
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
Quarterfinals predictions: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/03/02/quarterfinals-predictions/
Predictably, the likeliest outcomes are 1-2-3-4 and 1-2-3-5. I like that 1-3-4-7 one, though! (I'd prefer 3-5-7-8 myself, because that would mean avoiding Minnesota State and that Bemidji State gets knocked out in the first round!)
GFM
Quarterfinals predictions: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/03/02/quarterfinals-predictions/
Predictably, the likeliest outcomes are 1-2-3-4 and 1-2-3-5. I like that 1-3-4-7 one, though! (I'd prefer 3-5-7-8 myself, because that would mean avoiding Minnesota State and that Bemidji State gets knocked out in the first round!)
GFM
MTUHuskies
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
So is 1-2-3-5 23.565% or 6.173%
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So is 1-2-3-5 23.565% or 6.173%
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Squarebanks
New member
I think 1-2-3 is unfortunately almost a foregone conclusion when you look at the disparity between the top and bottom of the conference.
MTUHuskies
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
MMU is starting fast. 5:35 in and its 3-0 on 4 shots.
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MMU is starting fast. 5:35 in and its 3-0 on 4 shots.
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JohnsonsJerseys
Michigan Tech Fan
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
Ryan
According to USCHO's super accurate scores app, it's now NMU 4-0 at the START of the 1st period. I didn't know the home team got spotted four goals before the game started.
Ryan
MTUHuskies
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
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Earlier this year I went to the WMU-FSU game. Before it started my CHN app said Ferris was up 3-2. That ended up being the final score. Kinda freaked me out.
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lawdoggies
sitting by the river
This afternoon it had Wisconsin leading Michigan 3-2 with 0:03 left in the 3rd period.
gfmorris
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
It's the former. The second one was 1-3-5-7, and I've fixed that.
You're probably right! I was thinking/hoping that something like 1-3-5-7 might actually happen (I expect Tech to win, and that's just a hunch), but UAH ... ugh, well, that was embarrassing, and so was the game.
GFM
It's the former. The second one was 1-3-5-7, and I've fixed that.
You're probably right! I was thinking/hoping that something like 1-3-5-7 might actually happen (I expect Tech to win, and that's just a hunch), but UAH ... ugh, well, that was embarrassing, and so was the game.
GFM
UAHStatman
Registered User
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
It just felt that way.
It just felt that way.
beaverhockeyfan
Well-known member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
I believe they can only look at contact to the head, nothing else. I think it started last year, but am not 100% sure on that.
I believe they can only look at contact to the head, nothing else. I think it started last year, but am not 100% sure on that.
LSSULaker889294
Registered User
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
What are the chances of the WCHA having at least two teams in the NCAA tournament?
What are the chances of the WCHA having at least two teams in the NCAA tournament?
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
what are the odds of MSU losing 2 of 3 to MTU or in a one-off championship game in Mankato?
what are the odds of MSU losing 2 of 3 to MTU or in a one-off championship game in Mankato?
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
According to CHN there is a 37% chance that MSU doesn't win the Sauer Trophy. Plus there is an 11% chance that BGSU gets in without winning the tournament and a 2% chance NMU gets in without winning the tournament so about 50% chance of 2 teams from the WCHA getting in right now... They probably lost about 10% because of NMU losing a game to UAH last weekend.
According to CHN there is a 37% chance that MSU doesn't win the Sauer Trophy. Plus there is an 11% chance that BGSU gets in without winning the tournament and a 2% chance NMU gets in without winning the tournament so about 50% chance of 2 teams from the WCHA getting in right now... They probably lost about 10% because of NMU losing a game to UAH last weekend.
gfmorris
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
I'd love to know the underpinnings of their model.
GFM
I'd love to know the underpinnings of their model.
GFM
purpleinnebraska
Well-known member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
One of the problems is that Minnesota can't lose anymore! Using the Dahl PWR Calculator, neither BGSU nor NMU can catch the Gophers this weekend, even with a sweep. UNO and NoDak are immediately ahead of BGSU, but they play each other this weekend, so one of those teams is going to get 2 wins, and the other might get one. The best result I could get involves Providence getting swept by Maine, in which case I got BGSU up to 13.
So, to answer your question, we can get two, but by far the most likely way that happens is we get Kato and the winner of the Jeff Sauer trophy.
One of the problems is that Minnesota can't lose anymore! Using the Dahl PWR Calculator, neither BGSU nor NMU can catch the Gophers this weekend, even with a sweep. UNO and NoDak are immediately ahead of BGSU, but they play each other this weekend, so one of those teams is going to get 2 wins, and the other might get one. The best result I could get involves Providence getting swept by Maine, in which case I got BGSU up to 13.
So, to answer your question, we can get two, but by far the most likely way that happens is we get Kato and the winner of the Jeff Sauer trophy.
purpleinnebraska
Well-known member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
They rely on KRACH ratings, plus 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. It has a bit of a smell to it. With 4 teams left in it, I don't see how anyone can be a 63% favorite. Cornell is 52%, SCSU 45%, Notre Dame 37%, Mercyhurst 30%, and BC 22%. Those all look more reasonable.
Considering we split with both NMU and BGSU, including splits in Mankato, 63% seems large.
They rely on KRACH ratings, plus 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations. It has a bit of a smell to it. With 4 teams left in it, I don't see how anyone can be a 63% favorite. Cornell is 52%, SCSU 45%, Notre Dame 37%, Mercyhurst 30%, and BC 22%. Those all look more reasonable.
Considering we split with both NMU and BGSU, including splits in Mankato, 63% seems large.
Last edited:
gfmorris
New member
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids
KRACH is retrodictive and a bit of a pain to calculate. Elo is something that you can do pretty cleanly.
GFM
KRACH is retrodictive and a bit of a pain to calculate. Elo is something that you can do pretty cleanly.
GFM