WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conference

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

SMH. That is because Mankato is an easy 4+ lane highway drive between those in-state/former WCHA schools. Try getting a home and home out of WisconSIN. As stated before they will go to Green Bay, and no farther.

If Mankato wasn't in a league with Tech, would your team travel to Tech, LSSU, or NMU for a NC home and home series?

IMO, UMD has been fair with Tech for NC games.

Part of my point is that we really don't want a home and home with Wisconsin. We certainly don't need one. Why beg and grovel and take table scraps from a program that isn't going to put one more butt in the seats? I can honestly say, in the last 5 years, I haven't heard a single Kato fan say "I miss Wisconsin" or "I miss Denver." If they don't want to give us a home and home, we're not going to play them.
In the last few years, we've traveled to RPI, UAH (before they were in the WCHA), UConn, and Boston. So yeah, I think we'd travel to the UP for games.

 

[MavHockey14]

Part of my point is that we really don't want a home and home with Wisconsin. We certainly don't need one. Why beg and grovel and take table scraps from a program that isn't going to put one more butt in the seats? I can honestly say, in the last 5 years, I haven't heard a single Kato fan say "I miss Wisconsin" or "I miss Denver." If they don't want to give us a home and home, we're not going to play them.
In the last few years, we've traveled to RPI, UAH (before they were in the WCHA), UConn, and Boston. So yeah, I think we'd travel to the UP for games.

Have played at Princeton and Providence as well, flying to Arizona State (tournament) this year, etc.

The Mavs are trying to schedule the nation’s top teams in the non conference now more than ever though, partly to grow the program and show the commitment to top tier D-1 hockey, and part because they need to strengthen their own schedule as much as possible to get into the NCAAs due to the bottom half of the WCHA.

Agreed, why schedule Wisconsin when you can play the following:

2018-2019: Minnesota, North Dakota, Boston University, and ASU/UMD/Clarkson

2017-2018: BU, SCSU, UMD, etc.

2016-2017: SCSU, MN, Princeton

2015-2016: SCSU (x3), MN(x3), UNO

2014-2015: UNO, UMD, Princeton, MN

2013-2014: Providence, UMD, SCSU, MN, UCONN

There’s no need to get Wisconsin on the schedule.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

Have played at Princeton and Providence as well, flying to Arizona State (tournament) this year, etc.

The Mavs are trying to schedule the nation’s top teams in the non conference now more than ever though, partly to grow the program and show the commitment to top tier D-1 hockey, and part because they need to strengthen their own schedule as much as possible to get into the NCAAs due to the bottom half of the WCHA.

Agreed, why schedule Wisconsin when you can play the following:

2018-2019: Minnesota, North Dakota, Boston University, and ASU/UMD/Clarkson

2017-2018: BU, SCSU, UMD, etc.

2016-2017: SCSU, MN, Princeton

2015-2016: SCSU (x3), MN(x3), UNO

2014-2015: UNO, UMD, Princeton, MN

2013-2014: Providence, UMD, SCSU, MN, UCONN

There’s no need to get Wisconsin on the schedule.

Playing good teams isn't the priority for PWR, playing teams from good conferences that you can beat consistently is...far more important to win than play a good team...if you could do it your best bet is to play the worst teams in NCHC, HEA, B1G, ECAC (depending on the year)...

 

[Lost_Husky]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

Part of my point is that we really don't want a home and home with Wisconsin. We certainly don't need one. Why beg and grovel and take table scraps from a program that isn't going to put one more butt in the seats? I can honestly say, in the last 5 years, I haven't heard a single Kato fan say "I miss Wisconsin" or "I miss Denver." If they don't want to give us a home and home, we're not going to play them.
In the last few years, we've traveled to RPI, UAH (before they were in the WCHA), UConn, and Boston. So yeah, I think we'd travel to the UP for games.

I don't blame MSU for that assessment, but how can you not want a crack at WisconSIN? I grew up with a strong dislike of WisconSIN in my mouth and a friendly rivalry with Iowa. Then again, I grew up a Golden Gopher sports fan and a Mankato State's automotive department fan.

For Tech, when said school is the closest B1G program, we have a reasonable student/alumni base in that neighboring state, former WCHA team,... it makes for a good opponent.

I do commend MSU for going and getting good/diverse non-conference opponents.

 

[DrunkTrainPolka]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

Playing good teams isn't the priority for PWR, playing teams from good conferences that you can beat consistently is...far more important to win than play a good team...if you could do it your best bet is to play the worst teams in NCHC, HEA, B1G, ECAC (depending on the year)...

no sure if i agree...

we [tech] should play as many better teams as possible - not necessarily the best but better. and not loose to the the ones we play that are worse then we are. IMO, the reason we didn't make the NCAA after the first time with mel was because we were swept at home by UAA.

and if its telling [besides me liking numbers] this is the end of season PWR-wise;

russell 2004 better then mel 2013
russell 2005 better then mel 2012-2014
ruseell 2006 better then mel 2013
russell 2007 better then mel 2012-2014 & 2017
russell 2008 better then mel 2012-2014 & 2017

russell only beats joe in 2007
mel only beats joe in 2015 & 2016

both joe and mel beat russell on his last three years of 2009-2011

i think you expect russell's numbers to be worse...

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

no sure if i agree...

we [tech] should play as many better teams as possible - not necessarily the best but better. and not loose to the the ones we play that are worse then we are. IMO, the reason we didn't make the NCAA after the first time with mel was because we were swept at home by UAA.

and if its telling [besides me liking numbers] this is the end of season PWR-wise;

russell 2004 better then mel 2013
russell 2005 better then mel 2012-2014
ruseell 2006 better then mel 2013
russell 2007 better then mel 2012-2014 & 2017
russell 2008 better then mel 2012-2014 & 2017

russell only beats joe in 2007
mel only beats joe in 2015 & 2016

both joe and mel beat russell on his last three years of 2009-2011

i think you expect russell's numbers to be worse...

how are you comparing things? We're talking about who any team should play to maximize their PWR. The PWR calculation changed around the time Russell left/Mel joined so that isn't apples to apples. Opponent's Opponent's W% is the most important # so playing (and beating) Michigan State, Wisconsin, Vermont, Merrimack, UNH, CC, Miami would have been the best way to improve your PWR last season. Trust me...I spent way too much time looking at this stuff... The reason we want to play UAH, FSU, UA_, UAA, LSSU less isn't because they're bad, its because they're bad, and they play a lot of games against bad teams the other 5...so both the Opp% and Opp%Opp% are lower than other possible opponents.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

I don't blame MSU for that assessment, but how can you not want a crack at WisconSIN? I grew up with a strong dislike of WisconSIN in my mouth and a friendly rivalry with Iowa. Then again, I grew up a Golden Gopher sports fan and a Mankato State's automotive department fan.

For Tech, when said school is the closest B1G program, we have a reasonable student/alumni base in that neighboring state, former WCHA team,... it makes for a good opponent.

I do commend MSU for going and getting good/diverse non-conference opponents.

I looked back to see if indifference to Wisconsin is just recent, or if we got more amped for those games than I'm remembering. For comparison, attendance the last 5 times MN has come to Mankato:4612, 5134, 4854, 5156, 5048. Last 5 Wisconsin games in Mankato: 4357, 3656, 4051, 3468, 3826. So, the largest Wisconsin crowd was smaller than the smallest Gopher crowd.
Admittedly, these aren't totally apples to apples - The 2 most recent Gopher games were after their departure from the WCHA, and the oldest Wisconsin game goes back to 2009, when we weren't good. But the last 2 Wisconsin games, both under 4000 in attendance, were in Coach Hastings' first year, when we were very competitive. So I think my recollection of Wisco not being a hot ticket is pretty accurate.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

I looked back to see if indifference to Wisconsin is just recent, or if we got more amped for those games than I'm remembering. For comparison, attendance the last 5 times MN has come to Mankato:4612, 5134, 4854, 5156, 5048. Last 5 Wisconsin games in Mankato: 4357, 3656, 4051, 3468, 3826. So, the largest Wisconsin crowd was smaller than the smallest Gopher crowd.
Admittedly, these aren't totally apples to apples - The 2 most recent Gopher games were after their departure from the WCHA, and the oldest Wisconsin game goes back to 2009, when we weren't good. But the last 2 Wisconsin games, both under 4000 in attendance, were in Coach Hastings' first year, when we were very competitive. So I think my recollection of Wisco not being a hot ticket is pretty accurate.

From what I saw looking at attendance, it seems pretty important to compare Friday to Friday/Saturday to Saturday, etc. It's a complicated thing, not to menion comparing 2009 to 2015 is silly. How are those numbers compared to the season average of the given year?

 

[DrunkTrainPolka]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

how are you comparing things? We're talking about who any team should play to maximize their PWR. The PWR calculation changed around the time Russell left/Mel joined so that isn't apples to apples. Opponent's Opponent's W% is the most important # so playing (and beating) Michigan State, Wisconsin, Vermont, Merrimack, UNH, CC, Miami would have been the best way to improve your PWR last season. Trust me...I spent way too much time looking at this stuff... The reason we want to play UAH, FSU, UA_, UAA, LSSU less isn't because they're bad, its because they're bad, and they play a lot of games against bad teams the other 5...so both the Opp% and Opp%Opp% are lower than other possible opponents.

i am not arguing how the PWR works... and its not perfect but its the same 'math' for everyone, so its fair enough. its biggest fault is the fact that not enough inter-conference games are played.

my reason to compare russell to joe and/or mel is to bring up the fact of what being in a stronger conference can mean. i suffered tons through russell... but PWR-wise, it was not THAT BAD besides the last three seasons.

so maybe i should pose this in a question;

should we just be quiet and keep things as they are; what got us in the NCAA the last two seasons, hardware included, was not the PWR...

besides re-arranging conferences, i think creating two regions (creating more NC opportunities) and playing the likes of UMD, SCCU, MN, and UW would do wonders...

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

i am not arguing how the PWR works... and its not perfect but its the same 'math' for everyone, so its fair enough. its biggest fault is the fact that not enough inter-conference games are played.

my reason to compare russell to joe and/or mel is to bring up the fact of what being in a stronger conference can mean. i suffered tons through russell... but PWR-wise, it was not THAT BAD besides the last three seasons.

so maybe i should pose this in a question;

should we just be quiet and keep things as they are; what got us in the NCAA, hardware included, was not the PWR...

besides re-arranging conferences, i think creating two regions (creating more NC opportunities) and playing the likes of UMD, SCCU, MN, and UW would do wonders...

And I'm telling you, you can't compare the Russell era to pearson/present because the calculation had a major overhaul in there somewhere.
As for the conference schedule...playing less conference games doesn't help WCHA teams unless we can win more games, or end up in the better half of the conference...We're actually going to invest some time this summer in analyzing PWR a few different ways including doing something drastic like Conference USA Basketball. I also want to invest some time in figuring out what other conferences are doing with their NC games. Who are they playing and where...It will never happen, nor should it happen from a competitive standpoint but playing ZERO non-conference games is actually the best for the WCHA to get more teams into the tournament.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

From what I saw looking at attendance, it seems pretty important to compare Friday to Friday/Saturday to Saturday, etc. It's a complicated thing, not to menion comparing 2009 to 2015 is silly. How are those numbers compared to the season average of the given year?

Minnesota attendance pretty consistently runs 1200-1600 above the season average. In most years, Wisconsin was basically an average draw. Denver was average to below average. Essentially, MN raises the average so that most teams fall below it. I should do the median, but I'm already killing my work productivity today.

 

[davyd83]

i am not arguing how the PWR works... and its not perfect but its the same 'math' for everyone, so its fair enough. its biggest fault is the fact that not enough inter-conference games are played.

my reason to compare russell to joe and/or mel is to bring up the fact of what being in a stronger conference can mean. i suffered tons through russell... but PWR-wise, it was not THAT BAD besides the last three seasons.

so maybe i should pose this in a question;

should we just be quiet and keep things as they are; what got us in the NCAA the last two seasons, hardware included, was not the PWR...

besides re-arranging conferences, i think creating two regions (creating more NC opportunities) and playing the likes of UMD, SCCU, MN, and UW would do wonders...

The problem with creating more NC slots is that you’ll be very fortunate if, as a league, if you get 1/3 of those games on home ice.

 

[manurespreader]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

The problem with creating more NC slots is that you’ll be very fortunate if, as a league, if you get 1/3 of those games on home ice.

Yep. .. and if you play 6 non con games and lose 5 it doesn't matter who you play.

 

[MavsFan]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

The problem with creating more NC slots is that you’ll be very fortunate if, as a league, if you get 1/3 of those games on home ice.

This would be so easy for the NCAA to remedy. Require that all schedules be 50/50 home/road.

 

[Bale]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

I looked back to see if indifference to Wisconsin is just recent, or if we got more amped for those games than I'm remembering. For comparison, attendance the last 5 times MN has come to Mankato:4612, 5134, 4854, 5156, 5048. Last 5 Wisconsin games in Mankato: 4357, 3656, 4051, 3468, 3826. So, the largest Wisconsin crowd was smaller than the smallest Gopher crowd.
Admittedly, these aren't totally apples to apples - The 2 most recent Gopher games were after their departure from the WCHA, and the oldest Wisconsin game goes back to 2009, when we weren't good. But the last 2 Wisconsin games, both under 4000 in attendance, were in Coach Hastings' first year, when we were very competitive. So I think my recollection of Wisco not being a hot ticket is pretty accurate.

It wasn't a hot ticket, but strangely enough they were put in the "premium ticket" pricing category along with the Gophers and UND.

 

[Lost_Husky]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

Minnesota attendance pretty consistently runs 1200-1600 above the season average. In most years, Wisconsin was basically an average draw. Denver was average to below average. Essentially, MN raises the average so that most teams fall below it. I should do the median, but I'm already killing my work productivity today.

MN travels very well. They had one of the larger, if not the largest oWCHA fan contingents in Houghton in the early 00's. I don't remember WisconSIN traveling that well.

We are also talking about an in-state, hockey school with only a 2 hour drive vs a 4.5 hour drive hockey is a 3rd sport school. WisconSIN has great home hockey attendance, but outside of Madison, I have yet to see their traveling support. (excluding games in Minneapolis) One would assume they would travel similar to UND and U of M.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

MN travels very well. They had one of the larger, if not the largest oWCHA fan contingents in Houghton in the early 00's. I don't remember WisconSIN traveling that well.

We are also talking about an in-state, hockey school with only a 2 hour drive vs a 4.5 hour drive hockey is a 3rd sport school. WisconSIN has great home hockey attendance, but outside of Madison, I have yet to see their traveling support. (excluding games in Minneapolis) One would assume they would travel similar to UND and U of M.

I don't know what the methodology would be to look at this, but I really don't think there's much of a "national footprint" or "travels well" designation for any college hockey school, outside of what LHusky mentions above (Large state school traveling to smaller in-state rivals). In college football, Alabama or Notre Dame would draw well anywhere, coast to coast. Same with Duke or UNC in basketball. In some ways, that's a detriment for college hockey, but on the other hand, it's very liberating in scheduling. A Big school from another state, or an NCHC/HEA school wants to play hardball on the negotiations, just move on to someone else. You're not hurting your attendance by not scheduling that team.

 

[Lost_Husky]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

i am not arguing how the PWR works... and its not perfect but its the same 'math' for everyone, so its fair enough. its biggest fault is the fact that not enough inter-conference games are played.

my reason to compare russell to joe and/or mel is to bring up the fact of what being in a stronger conference can mean. i suffered tons through russell... but PWR-wise, it was not THAT BAD besides the last three seasons.

so maybe i should pose this in a question;

should we just be quiet and keep things as they are; what got us in the NCAA the last two seasons, hardware included, was not the PWR...

besides re-arranging conferences, i think creating two regions (creating more NC opportunities) and playing the likes of UMD, SCCU, MN, and UW would do wonders...

We have played UMD and UW last year and are slated to play them again this year.

Look at Miami sitting at 12-20-5 and Michigan State 12-22-2 to close 2017-2018. They are 29th and 35th in pairwise (PW) respectively. Both were clearly the bottom of their respective leagues, yet they finished around the middle of the PW mostly due to strength of conference. With a similar record in Hockey East, New Hampshire finished 10-22-6, and ended with a PW of 52. Assuming 6-7% win percentage difference between the "power conference" teams and HE is insignificant, this would lead one to believe that the strength of conference one plays in is a major component in the PW rankings.

Assuming similar* PW math, that would have given Tech under Russel and early Marv a significant PW boost over Joe. One important thing to note about Tech, Sertich left Tech with a respectable line-up. Russel left Merv a line-up in a worse place then what he had.

*PW calculations more than likely have been tweeked between the start of Russel and the start of Joe.

 

[giwan]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

This would be so easy for the NCAA to remedy. Require that all schedules be 50/50 home/road.

NCAA mandate LOL All for the red headed step child.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: WCHA 2018 Off-Season: Nobody's Walking Out On This Old-Fashioned Hockey Conferenc

Assuming similar PW math, that would have given Tech under Russel and early Marv a significant PW boost over Joe. One important thing to note about Tech, Sertich left Tech with a respectable line-up. Russel left Merv a line-up in a worse place then what he had.

that is just plain false
Russell left Marc a team that was ready to succeed from day one. Me couldn’t really have asked for a bette situation to take over, especially compared to Joe.