Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

[Pioneers#1]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

I hate to blow the flow of this wonderful conversation, but what the heck happened to Utica assimilating to the SUNYAC?

It was such a hot issue and now it's like dead...

 

[vcxc3200]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

I hate to blow the flow of this wonderful conversation, but what the heck happened to Utica assimilating to the SUNYAC?

It was such a hot issue and now it's like dead...

Rejected, or on the road to it. My sources in the SUNYAC tell me it's basically game over for Utica.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

I hate to blow the flow of this wonderful conversation, but what the heck happened to Utica assimilating to the SUNYAC?

It was such a hot issue and now it's like dead...

Rejected, or on the road to it. My sources in the SUNYAC tell me it's basically game over for Utica.

I've heard likewise. SUNYAC doesn't want another associate member: Morissiville's enough. Utica can stay put, and Canton can make everyone happy by staying out of the SUNYAC and adding a 7th body to the ECAC-W (assuming, as is currently predicted, that Canton seeks membership in a multi-sport conference other than the SUNYAC. If they want to go SUNYAC in all sports - which is unlikely - then all bets are off)

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

My carefully-considered opinion is this: if all the W teams were playing in the SUNYAC in a typical year, Oswego would probably win the thing, Plattsburgh would be in the top-3, and all the former W teams would be within a couple of points from the lead.

Nobody would have a particularly fancy W/L record - even OSU - and no team could rely on getting a comfy seed in the NCAAs on home-ice... It would be a real dog-fight all season long for the playoff positioning, just as the W has been for years and years and years.

(And that fantasy league might even be put in the position of having to eliminate each other. Go figger. )

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Rejected, or on the road to it. My sources in the SUNYAC tell me it's basically game over for Utica.

It wasn't a good fit for Utica anyway. Why in the world would the SUNYAC want to admit a small private college?

Morrisville fits the bill much more so than UC.

 

[norm1909]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

My carefully-considered opinion is this: if all the W teams were playing in the SUNYAC in a typical year, Oswego would probably win the thing, Plattsburgh would be in the top-3, and all the former W teams would be within a couple of points from the lead.

Nobody would have a particularly fancy W/L record - even OSU - and no team could rely on getting a comfy seed in the NCAAs on home-ice... It would be a real dog-fight all season long for the playoff positioning, just as the W has been for years and years and years.

(And that fantasy league might even be put in the position of having to eliminate each other. Go figger. )

No arguing that, obviously, a big disadvantage of being in a strong conference is having to play those strong teams at least twice and the fact that the overall in-conference record will be .500. As for the "for years and years and years", don't forget LVC and once belonged to "the W" and that Manhattanville and Neumann really haven't been all that strong until recently. Back in the day, though it is also true that RIT, Union and Mercyhurst also belonged to "the W", but in those days (or most of them), so did SUNY Oswego, Plattsburgh amd Potsdam.

 

[vcxc3200]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

http://www.utica.edu/wpnr907

My show starts in about 15 minutes if anyone's interested. 7pm thursdays. probably running solo tonight. Tournament discussion will be had.

Also, that link's good for tomorrow night's neumann game.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

A second consecutiver clunker at home tonight. Ironically, UC dominated territorily through the first 2, even as they fell behind 4-0...Nuemann converted every chance they had, and UC simply couldn't finish despite having scads of Grade-A opportunities.

Seems that NC, MC and EC always have more skill-guys than Utica. And the PP..? PUH-LEEZE. Neumann killed off nearly 4 minutes while down 5X3, ferchrissakes, not to mention nullifying a bunch of 5X4s. Utica is just ghastly on the man-up. (Gave one up on the PK, too.)

I wonder if UC would receive a berth if the NCAA field was determined tonight..? I'm not at all sure that they would. They're gonna need a win tomorrow, and quite possibly another at EC, before I"ll think their case in favor of an invitation is air-tight.

 

[jcase]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Tough to watch tonight. PP was pathetic but Neumann's G McKinnon was on his game. I hope Heenan recorded what he told the team after last Friday's similar loss. I'd like to see the same result as last Saturday tomorrow night.

 

[LakerFan99]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

I wonder if UC would receive a berth if the NCAA field was determined tonight..? I'm not at all sure that they would. They're gonna need a win tomorrow, and quite possibly another at EC, before I"ll think their case in favor of an invitation is air-tight.

Granted I haven't watched much of Utica all year, but you're kidding right? Do you really have to wonder if Utica would get a Pool C if the season ended tonight? You're 4-6-1 in conference and you're one loss from being in 4th place in a 5 team league.

Do you also seriously think that beating Neumann tonight and Elmira next week gets you an "air tight invitation"? You're going to need some serious help from Elmira and M'ville. Strictly looking at the numbers, UC is going to have to win tonight, next Friday and win the conference tourney to even have a shot. And even then, I think it's a long shot.

 

[jconnor]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Granted I haven't watched much of Utica all year, but you're kidding right? Do you really have to wonder if Utica would get a Pool C if the season ended tonight? You're 4-6-1 in conference and you're one loss from being in 4th place in a 5 team league.

Do you also seriously think that beating Neumann tonight and Elmira next week gets you an "air tight invitation"? You're going to need some serious help from Elmira and M'ville. Strictly looking at the numbers, UC is going to have to win tonight, next Friday and win the conference tourney to even have a shot. And even then, I think it's a long shot.

X2, some people just don't understand and have blinders on when it comes to "Their" team. From the start of the season, I have not been "Sold" on this Utica team.

 

[jcase]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Strictly looking at the numbers, UC is going to have to win tonight, next Friday and win the conference tourney to even have a shot. And even then, I think it's a long shot.

I'm a UC fan and I agree 100% with this assessment. I had hoped this would be the breakthrough year but UC still needs to get over the EC, MC and NU hump before there can be any tourney thoughts.

 

[norm1909]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

I'm a UC fan and I agree 100% with this assessment.

That "long shot" would at a minimum include every eastern conference leader winning their AQ (eliminating them from pool C contention).

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Granted I haven't watched much of Utica all year, but you're kidding right? Do you really have to wonder if Utica would get a Pool C if the season ended tonight? You're 4-6-1 in conference and you're one loss from being in 4th place in a 5 team league.

Do you also seriously think that beating Neumann tonight and Elmira next week gets you an "air tight invitation"? You're going to need some serious help from Elmira and M'ville. Strictly looking at the numbers, UC is going to have to win tonight, next Friday and win the conference tourney to even have a shot. And even then, I think it's a long shot.

My initial statement was a bit too sanguine, perhaps, but the suggestion that Utica is tourney-worthy is certainly not preposterous. A few points to consider...

You had your numbers wrong. Yeah, they are 4-5-2 in league play, but they could still finish as well as 2 games over .500... And comparing the ECAC-W to the vast majority of D-3 conferences is ludicrous at best. The wide gulf of disparity in strength renders that comparison meaningless.

The W is 44-14-4 OOC. Compounding the significance of that record is the fact that the #1-4 SOS teams in the nation are all W teams according to Krach, which is generally regarded as the most accurate metric out there, and Utica's SOS is rated #1. Furthermore, there are 4 W teams in the top 9, nationally... We clearly are not talking about the SUNYAC here.

PS: Before any trollish impulse compels our visitors to defend the existing selection-process as "just how it is, and has been for a long time", while providing mind-numbing details of how that travesty unfolds every year, kindly save that for your own thread. Heard all that before. I realize that there is no objective component to the D-3 selection process... Please, spare us that much.

But, I have to ask, do any of you seriously think that either OSU and Platty would have a significantly better record than UC's 15-7-2 if they played 12 games v. the W in a typical year..? I don't, and both those teams will certainly receive nice seeds and comfy home-ice, instead of hoping for a crumb tossed their way.

 

[LakerFan99]

My initial statement was a bit too sanguine, perhaps, but the suggestion that Utica is tourney-worthy is certainly not preposterous. A few points to consider...

You had your numbers wrong. Yeah, they are 4-5-2 in league play, but they could still finish as well as 2 games over .500... And comparing the ECAC-W to the vast majority of D-3 conferences is ludicrous at best. The wide gulf of disparity in strength renders that comparison meaningless.

The W is 44-14-4 OOC. Compounding the significance of that record is the fact that the #1-4 SOS teams in the nation are all W teams according to Krach, which is generally regarded as the most accurate metric out there, and Utica's SOS is rated #1. Furthermore, there are 4 W teams in the top 9, nationally... We clearly are not talking about the SUNYAC here.

PS: Before any trollish impulse compels our visitors to defend the existing selection-process as "just how it is, and has been for a long time", while providing mind-numbing details of how that travesty unfolds every year, kindly save that for your own thread. Heard all that before. I realize that there is no objective component to the D-3 selection process... Please, spare us that much.

But, I have to ask, do any of you seriously think that either OSU and Platty would have a significantly better record than UC's 15-7-2 if they played 12 games v. the W in a typical year..? I don't, and both those teams will certainly receive nice seeds and comfy home-ice, instead of hoping for a crumb tossed their way.

Your SOS means nothing if you don't win. And my numbers WERE correct before last night's tie, which didn't help you at all.

And how any SUNYAC team would do in the W is irrelevant. You may hate how the selections are made, but that's how it is. The simple fact is that you have not one, but two teams ahead of you in your own conference. If you are to have any shot if getting in, you need to win out, both Elmira and M'ville need to lose any remaining games and those who are EXPECTED to win their AQ...don't. For example, if Buff State wins the SUNYAC tourney, that's it. Because Oswego and Platty are getting 2 of the 3 Pool C's.

Last night's tie doesn't help you, SOS or not.

 

[NUProf]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

This argument is approaching the level of the stupid, but let me propose that the metric you need to consider is the following (which I just now invented) record vs. ranked teams belonging to other conferences. I don't know the answer to that question, but it seems more relevant that some of the other stuff that is being tossed around. Let's not forget that teams only have so many options in scheduling non-conference games - proximity, available dates, available slots in the schedule. The teams in the ECAC West have a lot more NC games to fill than the SUNYAC. The SUNYAC teams have 9 non league opportunities, while the ECAC West has to fill 13 games. Just the sheer bulk of necessary dates is going to make the ECAC West dig deeper for available teams that the SUNYAC has to.

I'm not wild about KRACH for a number of reasons - I understand the theory of logistic regression, but I'm not sure that it provides a flawless measure of strength of schedule the way that its advocates tout it.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

First off, if you find this discussion "stupid", there is really no reason for you to weigh in. But since you have...

When you mention "record vs. ranked teams", I'm guessing that you refer to the uscho poll rankings..? I don't see how using that dubious data improves the process in terms of fairness/objectivity. The poll is a beauty contest based strictly on opinions; I don't think it should be employed in picking the field. (Though no doubt it influences the process at present.)

Yes, the W plays many more OOC games than most conferences. Doesn't that just supply more grist for the mill when it comes time to compare their relative strength? Large samples tend to be more accurate than smaller ones.

Certainly KRACH is imperfect, as are the PWR, but they don't play favorites... Immediately following the final horn of the last D-1 RS game, everyone who cares to look it up can learn exactly who's in and who's out. Am I alone in finding that sort of transparency in the selection process refreshing?

 

[NUProf]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

First off, if you find this discussion "stupid", there is really no reason for you to weigh in. But since you have...

When you mention "record vs. ranked teams", I'm guessing that you refer to the uscho poll rankings..? I don't see how using that dubious data improves the process in terms of fairness/objectivity. The poll is a beauty contest based strictly on opinions, and is pretty-much worthless IMO.

Yes, the W plays many more OOC games than most conferences. Doesn't that just supply more grist for the mill when it comes time to compare their relative strength? Large samples tend to be more accurate than smaller ones.

Certainly KRACH is imperfect, as are the PWR, but they don't play favorites... Immediately following the final horn of the last D-1 RS game, everyone who cares to look it up can learn exactly who's in and who's out. Am I alone in finding that sort of transparency in the selection process refreshing?

No, you are missing my point. The "stupid" that I am seeing are the emotional "but the ECAC West only plays the bottom of the SUNYAC, so their SOS is inflated, bleating". By ranked, I'm referring to the NCAA rankings of teams, not the rankings of teams via the beauty contest polls.

As a statistician, I think that KRACH has flaws and has been over stated in terms of its value for measuring strength of of schedule. (I provide an alternative on another site) My point about the number of NC games they have to play isn't to denigrate their schedules at all, but to attempt to explain to the person who is downgrading them why, of necessity, the ECAC West plays teams at the bottom of the SUNYAC. They have too many NC games to play, and Oswego and Plattsburgh don't have enough spots to fill all the NC games that the ECAC W has to play.

I'm on your side - what I find stupid are the arguments against the strength of the ECAC West.

We would all love to see transparency in the selection process, but it won't happen because of the way the NCAA structures all DIII sports. The worst thing in all this is that a conference with a valid claim to legitimacy is left out, but if they could convince two schools to join them, they would (after a waiting period) achieve legitimacy, even if what happened was the LVC and Scranton returned to NCAA play from the ACHA, and proceeded to lose all their games except when they played each other.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

First off, if you find this discussion "stupid", there is really no reason for you to weigh in. But since you have...

When you mention "record vs. ranked teams", I'm guessing that you refer to the uscho poll rankings..? I don't see how using that dubious data improves the process in terms of fairness/objectivity. The poll is a beauty contest based strictly on opinions; I don't think it should be employed in picking the field. (Though no doubt it influences the process at present.)

Yes, the W plays many more OOC games than most conferences. Doesn't that just supply more grist for the mill when it comes time to compare their relative strength? Large samples tend to be more accurate than smaller ones.

Certainly KRACH is imperfect, as are the PWR, but they don't play favorites... Immediately following the final horn of the last D-1 RS game, everyone who cares to look it up can learn exactly who's in and who's out. Am I alone in finding that sort of transparency in the selection process refreshing?

A couple of helpful tips...

1. It's repeatedly been stated here on USCHO and on d3hockey.com that Record vs Ranked Teams is the NCAA's Regional Committee Rankings. The first edition was made last Tuesday, but is unpublished. This Tuesday they will publish the first of 3 weekly editions, then they make one final ranking on Selection Sunday, never to be published, which is used in the actual seeding of the tournament

2. Err... you're arguing with a retired Norwich University mathematics professor with a specialty in statistics about a statistics-based ranking formula. Just a friendly warning that you're probably not going to win that argument

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

First off, if you find this discussion "stupid", there is really no reason for you to weigh in. But since you have...

When you mention "record vs. ranked teams", I'm guessing that you refer to the uscho poll rankings..? I don't see how using that dubious data improves the process in terms of fairness/objectivity. The poll is a beauty contest based strictly on opinions; I don't think it should be employed in picking the field. (Though no doubt it influences the process at present.)

No, we are using our (most of us) years of knowing how these things work and who probably will be ranked (should does not apply to the NCAA) and then using that data to come up with where teams would be ranked based on the other criteria where SOS is one part.

Yes, the W plays many more OOC games than most conferences. Doesn't that just supply more grist for the mill when it comes time to compare their relative strength? Large samples tend to be more accurate than smaller ones.

Again, I will not disagree with you. That do play a lot of NC games due to their small conference. But again, the "grist of the mill" ?? Again I would agree with you if they had more then 25% of the wins against teams above .500. When nearly 75% of the leagues wins are against teams .500 and below.

Certainly KRACH is imperfect, as are the PWR, but they don't play favorites... Immediately following the final horn of the last D-1 RS game, everyone who cares to look it up can learn exactly who's in and who's out. Am I alone in finding that sort of transparency in the selection process refreshing?

Again, in a perfect world everyone would play every team of equal strength and ability, home and away (no offense Utica), no injuries, no suspensions, and in those games the better team would walk away with a win, but it doesn't happen. You look at St.Thomas, 4th best winning %. Heck Adrian, MSOE, Wentworth and Plymouth State have better winning % then any ECAC West team (14, 15, 16, 20, 33). At least with the "open" criteria the committee can use the weight of criteria as they see fit year to year to try and get the best teams in. What if it was set and an extreme winning % was weighted greater then SOS? If it was transparent set in stone would you like seeing an Adrian, MSOE or any of the other 13+ teams ahead of an ECAC West team get in?

So again we go back to SOS...you want to keep bringing up the 44 wins as your sole argument as to why the West is so dominate, and I will take that arguement and come back with the fact that 75% of those wins were against sub .500 teams. We're not talking about 50, 55, or even 60%. Even the overall average is around .400 with the high winning % of Oswego and Amherst put in. Again, impressive yes, they won games they (and any other good team) should. And for about every "bad" loss/tie, they have a big win.

Again, if this were a 16 team tourney, I'd have no issue putting in 2 or even 3 ECAC West teams as those teams are better then 3-9 SUNYAC, 3-10 ECAC East, all ECAC NE, all MASCAC, all MCHA, 3-10 of NESCAC, but you have to have a better argument then you have 44 wins over 75% sub .500 teams.

And I will say again, the ECAC West gets screwed more so because of no auto bid. That's one semi close conference (number wise) to putting a team in (over the ECAC NE, MASCAC on average) each year but can't due to numbers. Now if things were different and the ECAC West was allowed an autobid, and only 2 Pool C bids were open, I would have no issue with the West having that auto bid and leaving only 2 slots. But you can not weigh an SOS vs W/L from different conference because your league has 44 wins over the majority of a bunch of sub .500 teams