Re: UNH Wildcats Official Wait til Next Year...14/15 thread
In catching up with the past two pages of posts, I earlier overlooked Chuck's comments that BU does not have what it will take to go all the way this year. I think that he is right, as UNH exposed BUs lack of depth tonight, which a good friend and lifelong BU fan also has confided to me.
Just to clarify ... it's not so much the "lack of depth" issue than I see it being lack of experience, a little too much focus on the offensive end, and a lack of team focus on the defensive dirty work. *Maybe* the light will go on once they hit the postseason ... but that rarely happens, especially with such a young team. Again, it reminds me of some of the flaws of talented UNH teams a decade-plus ago. Ton of offense, outscore your opponents all the way to the HE RS title, and (usually) fall short in the HE Tourney (and always in the NCAA's).
* As talented as BU very clearly is, I worry about their focus and their ability to hold up defensively in the postseason. Reminded me of any number of UNH teams during the program's glory days about a decade or so ago. Outscoring your opponents in the regular season does not translate well into postseason success, when you come up against better, more defensively organized opponents. BU will get high seeds in their postseason tourneys, but I'll be surprised if they bring home any postseason hardware.
There are two teams in the league who have the institutional blueprint for postseason success right now; Lowell has won the last two HE tourneys, and anyone who dismisses them from a 3rd does so at their own risk. And (as much as it KILLS me to say it) BC still has enough juice on the national level to know how to transition successfully into the postseason. Don't get me wrong - if it comes down to BU vs. BC this year (or any year), I am rooting for the Terriers unconditionally. Some things never change, and that's one of them.
Comparing UNH to BU right now ... BU is shopping in a talent department store at the top end of retail, while UNH is trying to move up out of the "Wal-Mart" recruiting (in general) of the past few seasons back into the next level of recruits. Both teams are struggling with some of the same issues arising out of lack of exoerience, as I see it. But BU's talent level has enabled them to cover for a lot of the same mistakes we see the 'Cats making regularly this year.
Maybe with another solid recruiting class coming up, UNH moves back into the top half of HE next season. The last several weekends have been encouraging. For some perspective on the difference between an experienced team and an inexperienced one ... think about how easily UNH ran BU out of its own building at around this time last season. Many of the current BU squad was part of that team, while most of the top end UNH talent is no longer in Durham. Not that it's relevant in any way, shape or form ... but if you magically could match up this year's BU team with last year's UNH team, I would pick the 'Cats to expose BU's defensive frailties all night long, and UNH's experienced defensive core (TvR, Knodel, Agosta, Pesce, etc.) to do a much better job of containing BU's talented forwards.
BU lost a PWR point tonight to drop them to third, and UNH gained a PWR point to climb from a tie at 40th to a tie at 37th, not that PWR means anything for UNH at this point, but at least we leapfrogged UConn. The Cats should be able to run the table and pick up 8 points for probable home ice in the first round of the HEA tournament, but will they? But, should we win two of three, home or away, we would be going back to Agganis for two of three, if I am not mistaken. At least the Cats learned tonight that they can play with anyone in HEA.
I admire your optimism about the next two weeks, Snively65. But UNH hasn't won - much less swept - a season series this season to date against HE competition. It's all splits, except for Lowell and UMaine sweeping UNH, and BC taking 3 out of 4 points. So as much as we may have a tendency to dismiss UConn as a "newcomer", and may still think of Merrimack as our "home away from home", those are assumptions that may have been revelant to "old" UNH reality, but is a far cry from the current UNH reality.
It's a stretch to think a team that's yet to win a season series in HE is somehow going to do the trick for the first time in postseason. That's all I'm saying. Stranger things have happened, and it would be a great jumping-off point for Coach Umile and his young team to start from next Fall. There have been some encouraging signs, including emerging from this last stretch of tough games at .500.
Keep in mind ... to get to 8th place, you're going to have to overtake UConn AND UMaine. That means the following:
* Against UConn next weekend, anything but a UNH sweep means you won't be catching them (UConn has one game left, but against last place UMass). Even a 3 point weekend leaves UNH a point behind the guys from Storrs, and would probably force UNH to take at least 3 points against Merrimack on the final weekend to overcome UConn;
* Against Merrimack on the final RS weekend ... well, the Warriors will be finishing their season with 4 straight on the road, including two at UVM this coming weekend. Currently a point behind UNH, one would think UNH *should* fare better against UConn than 11th place Merrimack fares against UVM, so the gap over the Warriors *should* widen. The ideal UNH scenario would be a sweep over UConn and a UVM sweep over Merrimack, which would lock Merrimack out of first round home ice, and make the final two games meaningless to the Warriors (and VERY meaningful to the 'Cats). UNH should have a VERY good chance of finishing ahead of at least Merrimack;
* Now the X factor is UMaine, and they face Northeastern and Providence in their final two weekends. Both of those teams are in the top half of the HE standings, but Northeastern may be looking ahead to the Beanpot Finals Monday after next, which is right after their two games with UMaine. UMaine can pull away and lock UNH out of the top 8 with 6 points over the last two weekends, and realistically even a .500 finish over the last two weekends would force UNH to be perfect in their last four games.
I'll predict UNH finds one (but not two) sweeps over the next two weekends and finishes in 9th place, overcoming UConn, holding off Merrimack, but failing to pass UMaine. Which sets up a UNH @ UMaine first round series. Won't that be fun?!?
And once BU wipes out the Golden Posers from South Bend next weekend, the winner of UNH-UMaine does get to go back to Agganis, which I know will make HockeyRef a very very happy gal indeed.
UNH is going to wish they had those two UMaine games in their pocket that's for sure. We are going to be finish most likely out of home ice (of course, 'member last year when BU did the unthinkable and beat, who was it...can't remember) so we will take what we get. This team gets no props really for last night's win from most in the hockey world, the pundits pointing to 'its just one game and UNH is really no better a team for it". Well that's sports I guess and haters are gonna hate. We'll see what we do with this win, I am no fool and recognize our weaknesses (yes, even through my rose colored glasses and pom poms) and they've been basically the same for most of the season.
Anyhoo all we can do now is play the best hockey of the season, stop leaving our GK's out to dry, and, with a little luck, maybe, just maybe, get Grayson D back into the line up and roll the proverbial puck. The team feels good about last night and as they should. We've had some good stuff happen this season despite it all but they don't add up in the W column. Right now it's back to work boys; it's gonna be a bumpy ride!!!
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