Dan,
What makes you believe that Griffin will produce 10-15 goals as soon as his sophomore year? He managed to produce just 8 goals in each of the past two seasons in the NCDC. You may very well be prescient, but I’m curious to know your reasoning. If NU felt the same way, I doubt they would ask him to wait another year.
For one thing, I’ve never believed that development is as linear as so many people want it to be. Griffin was a top prospect, but dipped a bit - each season is a small sample size and it still seems just as likely, to me, that he is still the top prospect that tore up the U16 level and was the NCDC’s top-prospect (while scoring 8 goals) as a 16/17 y/o than he is the kid who leveled off at 8 in his 17/18 year.
Gildon leveled off and UW dropped him - but he’s gotten back on track and shown a lot of ability and production at UNH. UW would love to have had him the last few years, but they bet on his stalled development instead of his initial potential...
It’s notable that NU didn’t really dropped Griffin, rather deferred him - so they may still believe in him as a player, just not yet, and didn’t want to waste a line-up spot on his development during a season in which they expect to compete.
UNH once deferred a top prospect for an underwhelming, 10-goal season in JRs, but that down season simply proved to be a bump in the road en route to a 71-goal career at Union...
Also, at UNH Griffin is likely to be playing a regular top-6 role as early as his SO season - if not sooner. It’s possible NU is right about him not filling that role on their roster and UNH correct about his ability to do so for them. UNH’s high-skill forward depth may lack but he’ll be surrounded by some very good and experienced offensive skill in the top-six, including Crookshank, Grasso, Pierson, Kelleher, Margel and Richels, etc. The opportunity will be there, along with likely PP time...
Maybe he ends up more like Charlie Kelleher - contributing 15-20 assists rather than a lot of goals. Or maybe I’m wrong altogether and he’s never that kind of player or prospect - or it may not matter much for UNH even if he is - but it’s still a better gamble for the Wildcats based entirely on where they are as a program.
For an NU team poised to compete, BVR as a grad transfer could be a significant piece. They’re recent recruiting success is well established, they can find a long term replacement for Griffin pretty easily and add an established player today. That’s a win for them.
UNH is still in long term rebuild mode - they need to accumulate long term assets. If they can grab a number of potential 10-15 goal types, enough should pan out that they might once again skate the type of offense UNH is accustomed to. Adding an offensively driven (4-year) prospect is a win for the Wildcats, even if it comes with some risk of not planning out - whatever percentage anyone would put on Griffin teaching that level of production down the road, I’d rather take that chance for UNH than even a sure thing 10 goals next season when the maximum impact is limited...
BVR (or any transfer) popping double digit goals could make a tangible difference for NU, but for UNH that may only mean bottom half of the mid-pack to the top of the middle. So, whether Griffin performs at that level or not, it’s really just about UNH needing long-term talent and not quick fixes based on where they find themselves...
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