Re: UNH Wildcats 2019 Offseason - How Much Progress Did We Really Make This Past Seas
Umass is likely to lose just three guys total. Makar is the only defenseman they'll lose. They'll bring back studs in Del Gaizo, Ferraro and Farmer as well as Felix and McLaughlin and they bring in the second-highest scoring D in the USHL in Zach Jones (7-45--52). Up front they lose Pritchard and Boeing - with Pritchard being much harder to replace. They have a number of forwards who should continue to make big strides and four incoming FR having big offensive seasons in juniors. Unless guys like Leonard, Ferraro and Chaffee bolt early, UMass will be VERY good again next season and a clear early favorite in Hockey East. Losing Saturday might be the best thing to happen to their 2019-20 season...
Maybe … maybe not. If we've learned anything over the last 30 or so years of modern-day UNH Hockey (the Umile Era, for want of a better term), it's that you've gotta make hay while the sun shines. It's very competitive out there … and at some point, if you don't get it over the finish line, then you're going to have a hard time selling the next bunch of kids that your program is the best fit for their ambitions. There's only one (1) guy still coaching in Hockey East who is guaranteed to talk credibly about how he can win the big one AND advance his players' pro ambitions. He's the guy who's been at Chestnut Hill for 25 years now, and also had a D-1 NC before he took up his current residence. Nate Leaman is a distant second, although he can credibly claim to have some of the Walshy residue in addition to his own NC at PC, plus the Union build-up that paid off after he'd left for PC.
Norm Bazin is probably the pre-eminent guy who now can look back and wish one of his teams had gotten over the hump, and what Carvel has done in his short time at UMass is probably most comparable to Bazin's rise relatively early in his tenure. But now UML isn't the bright shiny new thing anymore, and it's quite possible that they've reached their high water mark, much like the Umile Era UNH program, and are now fading back to their historical norm (i.e. middle of the pack HE program). If Carvel can't pull it off in the next few years, his star may begin to fade, and with it his program. Let's face it, Carvel himself has been a .500-ish coach over his career, and UMass historically has been a lower tier HE program. Both are punching way over their weight this year, and may continue to do so for a few more years. But as it has gradually turned out with Bazin … if you don't get your program to the very top, then the positive buzz starts to wear off, and the program may begin to recede.
Umile's arc of success (and eventual failure) at UNH may end up tracking more like what Coach Madigan is doing at NU. Both are coaching at their alma maters - as are Bazin and York, but neither Carvel nor Leaman - and as such, both probably got a little more patience in their early years with slow builds (Umile's was actually quicker IIRC?). NU is starting to knock regularly on the door on a national level, and it will be important for Madigan to keep his program at or near that level, and hope that one year, it all falls into place. But he's probably got a job for life if he wants it, just as Umile had one effectively after a decade of similar progress. Like Walshy at UMaine and Umile at UNH, he is heavily reliant on a super assistant leading his recruiting, but when those super recruiters go away, things can begin to slide gradually (or quickly) in the other direction.
I'm not sure how many Hobey-level players like Makar are going to be falling into Carvel's lap in the future. For Coach Carvel and UMass to make this program a sustainable long-term success, you've eventually got to cash in on one of the opportunities when they present themselves. GC and UMass have just gotten started, and like I said with Coach Bazin a few years ago, they are entitled to the benefit of some time to get over the hump before they are judged to have "missed" on their moment in the sun. And it's why MS7 has to get UNH steadily pointed back up the competitive pyramid, year by year. Right now, he's among the group of HE coaches who really has nothing other than promise for the future to point to on their resume (I'm not sure how to account for Coach Sneddon's longevity), and unless those guys start to fulfill their promise, they tend to lose their jobs.
Long and short of it … if you get to the big games, it's never good to lose them. You never know if you're ever going to make it back for another shot.
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