I don't think it will be an easy sweep for UNH. They've swept one series in the last two calendar years - but any team serious about taking significant steps forward should have design on winning games like these. UNH isn't what they used to be. Despite the brand name (and that's where their title odds come from), Michigan isn't either. Neither are their opponents Michigan State and Minnesota (with OSU still facing questions about who they're going to be this season. They're 1-3-1 against their top opponents to date). UNH hasn't had an easy/sure sweep on the docket in - who knows how long? They don't have that this weekend. Michigan has talent and is certainly good enough to get a win (maybe even two) at the Whitt this weekend. A split may even be most likely, but it would still be disappointing to me and that is all I'm saying...
* UNH has the better offense (2.60 to 1.92 GPG)
* UNH is at home (3-0-0), Michigan is on the road (0-4-0)
* UNH has the best wins (#11 BC, #15 UMass // UM over #20 WMU)
* UNH has more talented and experienced upper-classmen
* Michigan's best players may be more talented, but they are younger, less experienced
* Michigan's upper-classes have been thinned considerably by early defections
* UNH's top-six scorers total 18-32--50 / Michigan's have 13-16--29
* UNH's PP advantage 27.3% versus UM's PK 80.6% (70% last 6 GP)
* UNH's PK advantage 80.0% versus UM's PP 11.8%
* Michigan's best player Will Lockwood expected to miss series
* Michigan will have to adjust to UNH's giant ice surface and adjustments like this are near impossible
* Two good defenses (2.40 GAA for UNH / 2.25 GAA for UM), but UNH's defense is more experienced & ill take UNH's goalie every time
This doesn't mean anything can't happen. UNH is just the better team, IMO - but hardly good enough to put the fear into anyone at this stage. They lost to Bentley and had to go to OT versus Merrimack. They do, however, have a number of advantages - most notably the PP. Michigan has struggled to kill penalties lately and UNH needs to take advantage of that with their first unit. That unit should be motivated with much to prove after last weekend, too.
The reality is that Michigan is that brand name. They're different stylistically, but in terms of winning games they might as well be Miami. Few worried about facing the RedHawks (on the road) and many were disappointed that UNH let game two get away. If Miami was coming to town, would it be unreasonable to expect UNH to have success? I probably wouldn't be the only one expecting significant success because on the front of a jersey Miami doesn't equal Michigan. Well, striped helmets aside, that is the company UM keeps these days. They, like UNH, are one of the many teams outside of the top-20 who could be thrown in a bag, mixed up and come out in any order. I would have expected UM to sweep MSU last weekend, to be honest, and they got handled in the last four periods of the weekend.
Certainly, it won't be easy. Certainly, UM could get the better of UNH. UNH clearly has its own set of problems and is capable of losing to anyone, anywhere, anytime. Still, with UNH's advantage in offensive upside, the Wildcat PP versus UM's PK, the two team's home and road splits and UNH's older/more experienced roster I'll be disappointed with anything less than three - but that's just me...
