Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
At long last, it's time to bring the excitement and anticipation built up over these last three seasons to a rousing finish, and with the previous season thread all but spent, I've set things up here for the stretch run. Two more losses this past weekend to UConn have extended the 'Cats' unthinkable winless run to 11 straight games, over a two month stretch. When the 'Cats beat Providence on the back end of a home and home, and followed that up with a convincing road win at RPI, The Quest had been confidently upgraded to The March to the NRN. Talk loomed of first round byes in the HE playoffs, or a home seeding in the MBPBEGAM round of the *playoffs* at worst, and UNH's PWR and rankings were both close to the Top 10, so a final trip to not only the TD Garden, but also to the D-1 tourney were possibilities bordering arguably on probabilities ... if only the winnable games facing them turned into W's, and if UNH continued to eke out a fair share of W's against the Lowells and Providences, here and there.
But since then, we've seen the unfolding of an epic Shakespearian tragedy in the making, with the departing tragic hero unfortunately stuck in neutral, as the 2017/2018 UNH Men's Hockey season lurches into the stretch drive, and the NRN is fading into the distance over the horizon, as if it's the mysterious stranger in the closing scene of High Plains Drifter having wreaked its havoc, and settled all scores. Eight regular season games and at least two MBPBEGAM "playoff" games remain, and desperate times have settled upon and around our protagonist, as WIS presents its latest prognostications in this thread-launching "Grand Finale" edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600".
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 595
Wins Remaining to NRN (Next Round Number): 5
Games Remaining (plus 2 min. MBPBEGAM games): 10
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 50.0%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 35%
2017/2018 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 5/14 (35.7%)
Back-to-back losses to *mighty* UConn (the latest cupcake program upon which UNH has gacked) were bad enough, but Friday's loss may prove to be the proverbial nail in the coffin for Coach's Quest, as a late one-goal lead not only disappeared in the closing minutes, but was followed by two more goals to turn a 2-1 win into a devastating 4-2 loss, and extended the winless streak to double digits. And even though Saturday's matinee down at The Mall was a close contest, was there really ever any doubt that UNH would conspire to find a way to lose again? Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Coach ditched his goalie binky for the back-up, who apparently played just well enough to allow teammates to find another L in them thar hills. So the Quest goes two more games without a W, and suddenly another poor weekend's worth of results ahead could turn the Quest into an all-out Chase.
Looking at the big picture ... with five (5) wins still needed in the final 10 games (minimum) left in the season, the win percentage needed for UNH to get Coach to the NRN stands at roughly 50% (depending on whether you figure there are games after the MBPBEGAM round, or if that round takes 3 games instead of 2 to put the 'Cats out of our misery). So it's still officially a Quest for now, but the WIS panel has dropped its forecast for a successful ending to this NRN stuff to an all-time low of 35%. Again, by no means is the NRN unreachable, but games are running out, and ties are now the enemy for a team that can't buy a win. At this time last week, the "steadying of the ship" process with the Orono Tie Festival seemed to be a positive sign, but with Luce and his boys laying waste to his former lead assistant's stumbling program, there's nothing being "steadied", and the ship is teetering amidst the floating glaciers across the seas of Hockey East so badly that even "Peaches'" creative scheduling can't help the 'Cats now. With that, the WIS panel takes a deep breath, and releases its predictions for this coming weekend:
Predictions:
Friday: @ Northeastern 5 UNH 0
Saturday: @ UNH 4 @ UMass 0
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF: 2/9/18 & 2/10/18 v. UVM
COMING ATTRACTIONS - THE GRASSO REDSHIRT NUMBER (GRSN)
Once we're done with the regular season, we'll turn our attention to the MBPBEGAM round of the HE "playoffs", and the GRSN - not to be confused with the NRN. This was brought to the fore by Dan regarding the prospects of Patrick Grasso's potentially lost season, and the chances he'll be allowed a "medical redshirt". A minimum of six (6) post-season games will be necessary for Grasso's 2017/2018 season not to become a total loss. So the Grasso Red Shirt Number sits at a 40 game UNH slate. The WIS panel has now downgraded Grasso's chances of following in the career path of the great Tommy Nolan to be Slim to None, and Slim Looks Like He's Packing to Leave Town. Of course, we'll revisit this assessment periodically as things progress.
FOXHOLE CHALLENGE - US AGAINST THE WORLD (in honor of Felger's dopey penguin)
Us 0
The World 7
To seek the man whose pointing hand
The giant step unfolds
With guidance from the curving path
That churns up into stone
If one bell should ring
In celebration for a king
So fast the heart should beat
As proud the head with heavy feet
But since then, we've seen the unfolding of an epic Shakespearian tragedy in the making, with the departing tragic hero unfortunately stuck in neutral, as the 2017/2018 UNH Men's Hockey season lurches into the stretch drive, and the NRN is fading into the distance over the horizon, as if it's the mysterious stranger in the closing scene of High Plains Drifter having wreaked its havoc, and settled all scores. Eight regular season games and at least two MBPBEGAM "playoff" games remain, and desperate times have settled upon and around our protagonist, as WIS presents its latest prognostications in this thread-launching "Grand Finale" edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600".
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 595
Wins Remaining to NRN (Next Round Number): 5
Games Remaining (plus 2 min. MBPBEGAM games): 10
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 50.0%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 35%
2017/2018 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 5/14 (35.7%)
Back-to-back losses to *mighty* UConn (the latest cupcake program upon which UNH has gacked) were bad enough, but Friday's loss may prove to be the proverbial nail in the coffin for Coach's Quest, as a late one-goal lead not only disappeared in the closing minutes, but was followed by two more goals to turn a 2-1 win into a devastating 4-2 loss, and extended the winless streak to double digits. And even though Saturday's matinee down at The Mall was a close contest, was there really ever any doubt that UNH would conspire to find a way to lose again? Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Coach ditched his goalie binky for the back-up, who apparently played just well enough to allow teammates to find another L in them thar hills. So the Quest goes two more games without a W, and suddenly another poor weekend's worth of results ahead could turn the Quest into an all-out Chase.
Looking at the big picture ... with five (5) wins still needed in the final 10 games (minimum) left in the season, the win percentage needed for UNH to get Coach to the NRN stands at roughly 50% (depending on whether you figure there are games after the MBPBEGAM round, or if that round takes 3 games instead of 2 to put the 'Cats out of our misery). So it's still officially a Quest for now, but the WIS panel has dropped its forecast for a successful ending to this NRN stuff to an all-time low of 35%. Again, by no means is the NRN unreachable, but games are running out, and ties are now the enemy for a team that can't buy a win. At this time last week, the "steadying of the ship" process with the Orono Tie Festival seemed to be a positive sign, but with Luce and his boys laying waste to his former lead assistant's stumbling program, there's nothing being "steadied", and the ship is teetering amidst the floating glaciers across the seas of Hockey East so badly that even "Peaches'" creative scheduling can't help the 'Cats now. With that, the WIS panel takes a deep breath, and releases its predictions for this coming weekend:
Predictions:
Friday: @ Northeastern 5 UNH 0
Saturday: @ UNH 4 @ UMass 0
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF: 2/9/18 & 2/10/18 v. UVM
COMING ATTRACTIONS - THE GRASSO REDSHIRT NUMBER (GRSN)
Once we're done with the regular season, we'll turn our attention to the MBPBEGAM round of the HE "playoffs", and the GRSN - not to be confused with the NRN. This was brought to the fore by Dan regarding the prospects of Patrick Grasso's potentially lost season, and the chances he'll be allowed a "medical redshirt". A minimum of six (6) post-season games will be necessary for Grasso's 2017/2018 season not to become a total loss. So the Grasso Red Shirt Number sits at a 40 game UNH slate. The WIS panel has now downgraded Grasso's chances of following in the career path of the great Tommy Nolan to be Slim to None, and Slim Looks Like He's Packing to Leave Town. Of course, we'll revisit this assessment periodically as things progress.
FOXHOLE CHALLENGE - US AGAINST THE WORLD (in honor of Felger's dopey penguin)
Us 0
The World 7
To seek the man whose pointing hand
The giant step unfolds
With guidance from the curving path
That churns up into stone
If one bell should ring
In celebration for a king
So fast the heart should beat
As proud the head with heavy feet
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