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Two ties may equal a win in the Hockey East standings, the PWR and the like, but even with a weekend split of two games in Orono by way of ties, those two ties have done nothing - nada, zero, zilch - to get Coach a much-needed W as things go from bad to worse on the "Long Goodbye Tour". Yours truly is admittedly starting to have second thoughts about this ongoing feature, as while it's getting more and more fascinating as the 2017/2018 UNH Men's Hockey season lurches into the stretch drive, it's also starting to feel a little like "piling on", and perhaps the unfathomable 9 game winless streak (0-6-3) against the anything-but-iron of what's been a very manageable schedule (thanks Peaches!!) makes it feel worse than it really is. At least for now, anyway. Ten regular season games and at least two MBPBEGAM "playoff" games remain, and it's very clear that time is running short, as WIS presents its prognostications in this "The Nearer Your Destination, The More You're Slip Slidin' Away" edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600".
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 595
Wins Remaining to NRN (Next Round Number): 5
Games Remaining (plus 2 min. MBPBEGAM games): 12
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 41.7%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 45%
2017/2018 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 5/12 (41.7%)
The two ties in Orono were not bad results, and saw UNH avoid a loss (and I'm counting Brown as a loss, sorry) for a weekend in almost two months. At this point, we're measuring progress in baby steps, and this is what we've come to, I'm afraid. Coach went with his goalie binky Danny Tirone this past weekend in both games, given his apparent hex over the Black Bears, and I suppose it's hard to criticize the outcomes. But as far as the Quest goes, it's two more games without a W. And an achievement that was looking to be a virtual certainty after a road win at RPI now looks like a desperate Chase, where Coach is suddenly playing catch-up. Not good.
Looking at the big picture ... with five (5) wins still needed in the final 12 games (minimum) left in the season, the win percentage needed in those games now exceeds the team's overall winning percentage this season to date (.375) for the first time, so the WIS panel has for the first time dropped its forecast for a successful ending to this NRN stuff to below 50%. Now, by no means is the NRN unreachable, but games are running out, and ties may be OK for a team that can't buy a win as part of the "steady the ship" process, but they're badly in need of one final surge, and that surge needs to come soon. With that said, here are the WIS panel's predictions for this coming weekend:
Predictions:
Friday: @ UNH 5 UConn 2
Saturday: UNH 3 @ UConn 3
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF: 2/3/18 v. UMass Flagship
WIS CONTEST - GUESS THE DATE COACH HITS THE NRN!!!
So ... what happens when you throw a contest, and nobody wins? Some might cynically say that the outcome here is "typical UNH", and with even the tempered (possibly cynical) WIS prediction now looking almost as naively optimistic as those eliminated earlier, the Orono Tie Festival has now officially kicked the last contestant to the curb. Do we want to start from scratch, or just let this thing go? As your gracious host, I'm happy to spring for a post-season round at Libby's or other local watering hole regardless, since I'm the closest loser.
<s>1/06/18 vs. Brown @ home: Snively65, HockeyRef</s>
<s>1/12/18 vs. BU @ home: phb, e.cat</s>
<s>1/19/18 vs. UMaine @ Alfond: Dan, deltabravo, Nifty16</s>
<s>1/20/18 vs. UMaine @ Alfond: After the Whistle, Scott, scoreboard, Darius</s>
<s>1/26/18 vs. UConn @ home: Aerman</s>
<s>2/03/18 vs. UMass @ home: WIS</s>
Once we're done with the regular season, we'll turn our attention to the MBPBEGAM round of the HE "playoffs", and the GRSN - not to be confused with the NRN. This was brought to the fore by Dan regarding the prospects of Patrick Grasso's potentially lost season, and the chances he'll be allowed a "medical redshirt". A minimum of six (6) post-season games will be necessary for Grasso's 2017/2018 season not to become a total loss. So the Grasso Red Shirt Number sits at a 40 game UNH slate. The WIS panel sets Grasso's chances of following in the career path of the great Tommy Nolan to be Slight. We'll revisit this assessment periodically as things progress.
FOXHOLE CHALLENGE - US AGAINST THE WORLD (in honor of Felger)
Us 0
The World 5
GO UNH - GOT TO GET THE GOODBYE TOUR TO THE GAHDEN!!!
Well one of those lousy teams is going to win the HE and get into the NCAA's....
Well one of those lousy teams is going to win the HE and get into the NCAA's....
The "Next Cupcake on the Shelf" (UMass FS) comes directly after this weekend's UConn-UNH predictions.
If you look at the previous edition of the Quest, you should see UConn had "next cupcake" status after the UMaine weekend series predictions. BTW, UMaine was NOT deemed a cupcake (just a little overrated).
Context is everything, my friend.
Good point!
So if UNH is a cupcake and UCONN is a cupcake then will the winner of the weekend series remain a cupcake??
Yeah but UNH will prove to be a First Rate Cupcake (FRC)! Maybe
Yeah but UNH will prove to be a First Rate Cupcake (FRC)! Maybe
Department of Advanced Cupcake Analytics (DACA)!Love it. e.cat is going to be a pioneer in the field of Advanced Cupcake Analytics (ACA).
I tried really hard to find a "D" to put in front of that, but came up empty ...
Love it. e.cat is going to be a pioneer in the field of Advanced Cupcake Analytics (ACA).
I tried really hard to find a "D" to put in front of that, but came up empty ...
Cue Captain Foxhole with the inspirational rallying cry ... "Why Not Us? Why Not Now?"
... then cue Felger with that dopey penguin, and that sappy old Helen Reddy tune
