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It was another winless weekend for the 'Cats, as the 2018 portion of the UNH schedule now lacks any W's midway into the month, and as the games tick past us, UNH's chances for sending its legendary outgoing head coach off to retirement successfully are likewise slip sliding away. Each loss makes it less and less likely that Coach's "Long Goodbye Tour" will involve either one last trip to the Garden and/or to the national D-1 tourney. My, how things have changed over the last 7 games. And with the annual trip to the Downeast now coming up, and a rejuvenated UMaine program no doubt chomping at the bit with the imminent arrival of sugar-laden opposition from the NH Seacoast, it looks like it's time to put up or shut up for the 'Cats, as WIS presents its latest prognostications in this "Remember When UNH-UMaine Weekend Mattered a Lot?" edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600".
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 595
Wins Remaining to NRN (Next Round Number): 5
Games Remaining (plus 2 min. MBPBEGAM games): 14
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 35.7%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 55%
2017/2018 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 5/12 (41.7%)
The loss to BC on Sunday afternoon wasn't surprising in the least, and the WIS panel was only off by one meaningless UNH goal from a direct hit on the score. Of more concern, WIS was close but not quite on Friday's 3-2 home loss to BU, which we predicted as a 2-1 win for the good guys in this space last week. The curiously timed switch to Adam Clark in goal didn't do the trick - nor did the predictable return to action for Tirone on Sunday at Chestnut Hill - as Coach Umile searches in vain to find the right formula to turn the ship around. It's been a LONG time since we've been able to tick a number off the Quest for the NRN, and it might not be until the weekend after next before we see any traction being made on that front. The debris of the devastating Brown "loss" continues to swirl around the 'Cats, as another season threatens to circle the drain. Perhaps fortunately, UMaine's rejuvenation hit a Northeastern iceberg this past weekend, so this isn't exactly going to be the Walshy/Standbrook version of the Black Bears we'll be seeing. UNH still has time to turn it around, sure ... but that time is steadily ticking away, and W's need to be grabbed quickly.
Looking at the big picture ... WIS' panel of experts had projected in the preseason that Coach Umile's Wildcats would amass at least 10 wins in the opening 19 game stretch of the season before turning the calendar into 2018. With only 9 wins in 22 games to date, this now amounts to much more than "a game late and a dollar short" stuff. Last week's comparison in this space to last year's freefall by UMass Flagship may have seemed harsh ... but with another tough weekend staring the boys in the face, there's no dount the Quest for the NRN is in extreme danger of failing to reach a happy ending. WIS still sees the NRN being attained, but chances for an unsuccessful fate crept ominously closer to 50-50 "coinflip" territory after this past weekend. It may take an upset win in Orono to keep that number from dropping under the 50% mark. With that said, here are the WIS panel's predictions for this coming weekend:
Predictions:
Friday: @ UMaine 5 UNH 0
Saturday: UNH 3 @ UMaine 1
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF: 1/26/18 v. UConn
WIS CONTEST - GUESS THE DATE COACH HITS THE NRN!!!
Sad to say, but everyone except WIS is out of the running ... and WIS is virtually out as well, and our goose could be cooked unless UNH wins at least once this weekend. Yes, that's how dire things have been since early December. Suddenly it just feels very, very wrong to continue with this spectacle. But continue we must, at least for one more weekend:
<s>1/06/18 vs. Brown @ home: Snively65, HockeyRef</s>
<s>1/12/18 vs. BU @ home: phb, e.cat</s>
<s>1/19/18 vs. UMaine @ Alfond: Dan, deltabravo, Nifty16</s>
<s>1/20/18 vs. UMaine @ Alfond: After the Whistle, Scott, scoreboard, Darius</s>
<s>1/26/18 vs. UConn @ home: Aerman</s>
---------------------------------------------------------------
2/03/18 vs. UMass @ home: WIS
Maybe we'll have to restart the contest from scratch OR maybe I get deemed to be the "closest loser" and spring for the drinks at Libby's anyway (albeit without the GOH, who presumably won't be in the mood to *celebrate" by then). I'm open to suggestions, but frankly I think we're all lost for words at this point. Please guys, just win a game.
Once we're done with the regular season, we'll turn our attention to the MBPBEGAM round of the HE "playoffs", and the GRSN - not to be confused with the NRN. This was brought to the fore by Dan regarding the prospects of Patrick Grasso's potentially lost season, and the chances he'll be allowed a "medical redshirt". A minimum of six (6) post-season games will be necessary for Grasso's 2017/2018 season not to become a total loss. So the Grasso Red Shirt Number sits at a 40 game UNH slate. The WIS panel sets Grasso's chances of following in the career path of the great Tommy Nolan to be Slight. We'll revisit this assessment periodically as things progress.
FOXHOLE CHALLENGE - US AGAINST THE WORLD (in honor of Felger)
Us 0
The World 3
GO UNH - GOT TO GET THE GOODBYE TOUR TO THE GAHDEN!!!
Indeed, a fantastic trip down memory lane, Felger.
Were you in Orono that weekend? I vaguely remember these one-game expulsions, but I do not recall the details. According to the box scores, the six expelled UNH players (Trevor Smith, Brett Hemingway, Josh Ciocco, Mike Radja, Jerry Pollastrone, and Greg Collins) in the 4-2 loss on Friday night were back for the 7-4 win on Saturday night. There were 67 minutes in penalties on Friday (UNH 37, Maine 30), and 40 on Saturday (UNH 10, Maine 30). Brian Foley's 5 min roughing and 10 misconduct on Friday night were topped by Michel Levelle's two 2-min minors and 5- and 10-min misconducts on Saturday. Yes, two teams that routinely were in da Gahden for the HE tournament. Dem were da days.
EDIT: oh, and Kevin Regan got a 2-min minor for Hitting after the Whistle on the Friday night. Did our UNH poster that I met at Conte yesterday take his screen name from this game?
So you say 0%, and "slight" probably tops out at 10-20%. We're not fishing in different ponds here.
Last year's team did exactly that, so we can't discount their chances entirely. For purposes of the GRSN only, ironically (and admittedly we're now officially visiting the land of make-believe here) it could be counterproductive for UNH to sweep its MBPBEGAM round match-up because then it would pretty much force the boys to make it to the Garden to get to the magic Game 40. And even more improbably, a four game sweep in the MBPBEGAM round AND the quarterfinals, and a loss in the semis in the Garden would still leave the GRSN at 39.
We're sticking with "slight" for now. An 11 v. 4 seed or 10 v. 5 seed match-up in the MBPBEGAM round could see our number moving a LOT closer to your forecast, though ...
So you say 0%, and "slight" probably tops out at 10-20%. We're not fishing in different ponds here.
Last year's team did exactly that, so we can't discount their chances entirely. For purposes of the GRSN only, ironically (and admittedly we're now officially visiting the land of make-believe here) it could be counterproductive for UNH to sweep its MBPBEGAM round match-up because then it would pretty much force the boys to make it to the Garden to get to the magic Game 40. And even more improbably, a four game sweep in the MBPBEGAM round AND the quarterfinals, and a loss in the semis in the Garden would still leave the GRSN at 39.
We're sticking with "slight" for now. An 11 v. 4 seed or 10 v. 5 seed match-up in the MBPBEGAM round could see our number moving a LOT closer to your forecast, though ...
Both the MBPBEGAM and QF series are best of three, yes. But (again, I realize this is crazy talk) if UNH advances to the semis with two consecutive two-game sweeps, they would need to make it to the Finals to reach the GRSN.
... and the bad news is before DST lapses, they'd need to win the MBPBEGAM and quarterfinal rounds first.
