Re: UNH Wildcats 2016-17 -- We're Going to Have a Hockey Season Here!!
As promised ... WIS Productions brings you a special edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600".
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 57
5
Wins Remaining to the next round number: 2
5
*Games Remaining (Next 2 Seasons - Min.): 64
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 39%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success:
70% 
2016/2017 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 3/6 (50%)
* - minimum games remaining assumes 34 regular season games, and at least 2 games in the MBPBEGAM "playoffs"
Your UNH Wildcats escaped the AHA cellar after Saturday night's routine 3-0 drubbing of Mercyhurst ... but had soiled themselves earlier in the weekend with an inexplicably uninspired 2-2 tie with the Sacred Heart Valentines, which required the 'Cats to score two late goals (with the final one with the goalie pulled) to avoid further embarrassment. And while some of the more optimistic UNH fans will be quick to point out that UNH is now on a 4 game unbeaten streak ... the sheer shock to the system of not beating the patsiest of cupcakes on the unique home ice surface at The Whitt sent WIS prognosticators scurrying, and questioning the prudence of UNH's short-term scheduling strategy. At least one outside consultant had raised the possibility that the UNH 2016/2017 NC schedule is what it is because other potential D-1 NC opponents might be hesitant to risk the negative impact of a would-be cupcake like UNH on their schedule, and the adverse impact it might have on their own PWR come tourney time. As much as the WIS panel would like to debunk that ... it's a scenario we can't rule out.
Despite the shocking tie to the weaklings of Fairfield County, UNH's defense seems to at least be holding its own, and now with G Dan ("Dr. Jekyll") coming off a solid if unspectacular weekend that included a no-frills shutout of a team he probably had never heard of before the opening intros on Saturday night, it looks like he has repelled back-up G Adam Clark's latest injury-shortened incursion into his status as UNH "lead dog" in goal.
WIS observers fully expect Tirone will get the nod against BC, and so long as he doesn't revert to "Mr. Hyde" form against the high-flying Eagles, he can probably expect to get both starts in goal for the 'Cats next weekend, as Coach Umile clings to the hope that Tirone's "Dr. Jekyll" persona is here to stay (WIS continues to reserve judgment). Hopefully we'll see Clark getting another shot at things when a cupcake-filled weekend arrives again ... and yes, there are more than a few of those just over the horizon.
Looking at the big picture ... WIS experts had projected Coach Umile's Wildcats would amass
at least 10 wins in the opening 18 game stretch of the season, until the calendar changes to 2017. In the wake of this past Friday night's shocking non-win,
WIS is forced to downgrade its position on this projection. The 'Cats will need to beat BC on the road this week to get to the midway point in their 18 game 2016 slate with 5 wins (5-3-1). Most likely, UNH will compile a 4-4-1 (or for the optimists a 4-3-2) record, which while on the surface might seem palatable, but during a cupcake fest that would send most of us into diabetic comas, 4 wins out of 9 games simply isn't enough and would probably require Coach Umile's skaters to amass 6 wins in their final 9 games of the 2016 slate. WIS understands that most (if not all) of the post-BC games are against beatable opposition ... but we said that about the likes of Bentley
, Colorado College
and *ack* Sacred Heart
So while the 10 win projection is still attainable, UNH's inability to cash in more regularly on their cupcakes can no longer be dismissed as flukes, and points to increasing concerns about the eventual outcome of "The
Quest".
Given these concerns have now resurfaced,
WIS has regrettably downgraded Coach Umile's chances for success in his quest to the 70% level, which marks a new low point, and well below the 80% forecast we started the season at. Since Coach has historically won well over 40% of his games, there is still reason for optimism, but it's going to take more than a 50% CCR (cupcake conversion ratio) to convince WIS that success in The
Quest is anything but certain - even if (as predicted) this year's team meets modest expectations for 15 wins, and BS35+4 and Coach assemble a NC schedule for next season that makes this year's NC schedule look like the highway to he11. I think we can safely rule out any chances of a 20 win season this year, which could have rendered the
Quest a virtual
fait accompli, so the outcome remains in the balance.
Prediction:
Tuesday: BC 4 UNH 1
NEXT CUPCAKES ON THE SHELF: 11/12/16 @ home vs. Arizona State; 11/13/16 @ home vs. Merrimack
IS BS35+4 PAYING ATTENTION YET?
Probably (finally). UNH Football had the weekend off, and with a 6-3-0 record, the 'Cats probably need 1 win in their last 2 games (Albany and UMaine) to return to the D-2 tourney for their 37th consecutive season (OK still a slight exaggeration there
). On the home front ... the NHIAA postseason tourney has finished, and the two D-2 programs nearest and dearest to his heart are out, so there's no distractions any more to prevent closer scrutiny of his (former) flagship Hockey program, even with all the ongoing excitement across the street. Coach has to hope his boss only top-read his inbox this morning - catching their win last night, and overlooking the Friday night catastrophe. But you don't get to where BS35+4 is in his career without paying attention (at some point anyway), and while his fave hockey coach does still have a winning record so far this season ... you gotta think the boss expected the W side of the ledger would be a little more robust at this stage than it presently is. BS35+4 also probably remembers the good ol' days, back when hundreds of traveling UNH fans would make the trek to Conte Forum at this time of the season, and often return with one of those valued W's. My guess is Coach probably wore out his rosary this morning, hoping to pull that old trick out of his hat at least one more time before he rides off into the sunset. Fingers crossed.
ok you brought it up sooooo UNH 41 MHurst 14