Re: UNH Wildcats 2016-17 Vol II -- We Do Have a Hockey Season Here!?!
WIS Productions brings you the latest edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600"
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 582
Wins Remaining to the next round number: 18
*Games Remaining (Next 2 Seasons - Min.): 48
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 37.5%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 70%
2016/2017 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 9/15 (60%)
* - minimum games remaining assumes 34 regular season games, and at least 2 games in the MBPBEGAM "playoffs"
UNH's last-ever conference road trip to Lefty Smith Rink at the Compton Family Ice Arena was a mixed bag of results, as the 'Cats escaped the weekend with a Friday tie against the Fightin' Frauds, before getting shut out on their Saturday night Hockey East finale at NICC. One out of 4 points probably wasn't a bad outcome under the circumstances, and it keeps the 'Cats in the top half of the HE standings, and only a single point out of a home ice seed in the real first round of the HE playoffs (which would mean a bye from the MBPBEGAM silliness). It also means UNH will carry an overall record of at least .500 into the start of February, regardless of the outcome of their two home game series against rejuvenated Providence next weekend. And I do like UNH's chances this coming weekend, but we are reaching that point in the schedule where visualizing where the next "W" is coming from is getting a little bit more challenging ...
... and of course, it's the "W"'s that this season and next are all about as Coach Umile continues to stalk the next round number in "The Quest", and while getting a road point against a (questionably) ranked opponent helps with most things ... it doesn't advance "The Quest" in the slightest. Which is what makes this coming weekend critical for the 'Cats to bounce back and capitalize on home ice with at least a win over the two game PC series. With the past weekend's overall setback allowing NICC to slip past them in the RS standings, and with tough sledding ahead, the smart money is still pointing to the only realistic shot at home postseason hockey involving the silly MBPBEGAM round.
The Big Picture - Coach Umile's Wildcats are approaching the end of January still two games over .500 (with an 11-9-4 record) and three games over .500 in the conference, just past the halfway mark of the HE regular season schedule. But Providence comes to Durham fresh off an impressive sweep of Coach Bazin's Riverhawks, and despite still trailing UNH by 5 points in the conference race, another sweep would eliminate 80% of that margin, and really start setting off the "oh no, not again" warning beacons at The Whitt. Luckily, UNH seems to have some recent history on their side when it comes to PC, and after a weekend where the WIS prognosticators picked a UNH Friday win instead of a tie, and did nail a 3 goal Saturday loss ... it says here that UNH will get at least another W to get things back on track.
But in the interests of "fair and balanced", WIS also feels compelled to point out that potential Hobey candidate Tyler Kelleher has struggled over the last 5 conference games without a goal, and with a single assist (I think - on Friday?) and that is a terrifying sign not only for his standing as a potential Hobey frontrunner, but also for the fortunes of his team. Unfortunately for Kelleher, Providence looks to be a tough defensive squad, and won't be an easy nut to crack. WIS predicts a goal and an assist for Kelleher to slowly emerge from his recent funk.
Predictions:
Friday (Jan. 27th): @ UNH 3 Providence 2
Saturday (Jan. 28th): @ UNH 1 Providence 1
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF: None on the horizon, at least until the MBPBEGAM playoffs
WIS BRAIN-BUSTING TRIVIA QUESTION: Which NCAA D-1 Men's Hockey program plays their home games at Oceanside Ice Arena?
IS BS35+4 PAYING ATTENTION YET?
Out of sight, out of mind ... BS35+4 still has a winning Men's Hockey team as they return from their last-ever conference road trip to the wonders of Northern Indiana, and with two home games this coming weekend against a program that UNH has done well against during the apex of Friar Hockey history, there's no reason to be concerned, or to think the good guys shouldn't take the series again on home ice with the benefit of Lake Whitt "home cooking". But it's been three games without a "W" for the 'Cats, and if that dip in form were somehow to be extended to five games with nary a point this weekend ... the "nuclear option" of not allowing Coach Umile to finish up the 3rd and final year of his long goodbye tour may start sneaking itself back onto the table, as the next six games after are all against opponents ranked in the Top 12, and all but two of those games will be on the road - with the only home games being one apiece against BC and BU. So while last weekend the pressure was low ... this weekend, that torques up a few notches, because a 5 game winless streak could slip quickly into a double digit winless streak otherwise. And we can't have that (again). But Coach can navigate those choppy waters with a good weekend against PC, and by pulling a rabbit or two out of his hat in the February stretch run before Luce Canaan and his Huskies arrive late to offer a pseudo-cupcake opportunity for a UNH team that's not quite shed their own pseudo-cupcake status 2/3's of the way into the season now.
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